Dutch general election - September 2012

[freek]

The method for the "EenVandaag" poll is quite interesting. It uses a cumulative voting method. Every respondent has 5 votes, which it may divide over 1-5 parties.

[freek]

Thanks for the update, and especially for relating SPs stance here.

Why would they refuse the debates? I'm not a fan of the debates held immediately before elections, but from what I can see they have a significant influence, and the minor parties here are itching to get on them.

Officially the reasons are:
Rutte: "Campaign starts on August 25, on the VVD election congress"
Roemer: "Choices had to be made in debates, due to a debate overkill"
Wilders "Still on holiday, PVV election campaign starts officially on August 24"

Unofficially your remark "the minor parties here are itching to get on them" will be a reason too. VVD and SP are aiming on a neck-and-neck race between them, they don't need attacks from the other parties.

[freek]

I had a go at the kieskompas.nl quiz the other day, and to my surprise I wound up almost exactly on the same place as the SP. (The surprise mainly directed at the 'almost exactly').

Position of the parties in Kieskompas 2012:



And the shift from previous editions of Kieskompas:



I was placed exactly on the Left/Right axis, as far to the right as CU.

I am still in doubt what party to vote for, but I am more and more tempted to vote CDA.

[freek]

I don't see how they could place the PVV so close to the center of the axis ! :-O

Their 2006 rating where it was the rightmost party seems more faithful to me, unless there has been a real shift of this party's ideology since then that I'm unaware of ? I mean, how could PVV be rated as more left-wing than D66 ? O_o'

Well, I understand the horisontal as mainly economic questions, and then it makes some sense. I know that PVV used to have quite liberal economic policies, but Wilders took down the government because PVV didn't accept the austerity measures that the government wanted to do in order to reduce the deficit. So that would probably place PVV economically more to the left than VVD and CDA. And if D66 is like most social liberal parties, then it's looks plausible that they are quite right wing on economic questions and wants tax cuts and deficit reduction. I did think that CU would be quite more left wing on economy, but according to the maps they have moved quite a bit towards the right.

Correct. PVV started in 2004/5 as a right wing conservative split of the VVD, but since then has started to oppose cuts in health care and especially the care for the elderly. Also, Wilders opposed reforms in pensions, and in dismissal rights of employees.

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True. 'Kieskompas uses themes to divide the parties on either the left/right or progressive/conservative scale.
It is possible to switch themes on and off.
Themes Europe, safety, environment and immigration are on the progressive/conservative scale
Themes Income, work, economy, housing, ethics are on the left/right scale.
Themes World and health care are on both

Since all themes consist of two or three questions, the scales per theme are a bit arbitrary, and many parties tend to end up on the same position.

Europe (D66 is invisible, but is progressive):


Safety (all invisible parties are somewhere in the center):


Environment (CDA in the center, CU & GroenLinks progressive)


Income (GL on SP spot, the other ones around the center):


Work (SP on 50PLUS spot, SGP and GL on CDA spot)


Economy (PVV at VVD spot, CDA&SGP on CU spot, GL on PvdD spot)


Housing (GL and PvdD in the center, SGP and PvdA on the CU position, D66 and CDA on the VVD position)


World (GL at PvdA position, PvdD and SP at 50PLUS position)


Ethics (PvdD at D66 position, 50PLUS, VVD & GL at PvdA position, SGP at CU position)


Healthcare (PvdD at PVV position)


Immigration (PVV at VVD position, all missing left wing parties on PvdA position)

[freek]

Latest polls, SP is taking a hit, apparently because of the debate between Rutte, Roemer, Wilders and Samsom. Samsom (PvdA) was seen as the winner, and also Rutte was doing well. In the EenVandaag poll, SP lost 8 seats (38 -> 30), however in the previous poll last week they had won 4 seats.

Margin of error of the polls is 3 seats for the larger parties

TNS NIPO:
VVD 36 (+2)
SP 30 (-4)
PvdA 24 (+3)
PVV 15 (+1)
CDA 13 (-1)
D66 12 (-1)
CU 7 (nc)
GL 4 (nc)
SGP 3 (nc)
50PLUS 3 (nc)
PvdD 3 (+1)
Others 0 (nc)

EenVandaag:
VVD 33 (-2)
SP 30 (-8)
PvdA 21 (+4)
PVV 18 (+3)
D66 14 (+2)
CDA 13 (nc)
CU 7 (nc)
50PLUS 4 (+1)
SGP 3 (nc)
PvdD 3 (nc)

[freek]

@Freek or any other Dutch Posters:

What is your estimation of the two recent debates (RTL4 and EO)? Roemer seems to be thought to have done poorly in the RTL-debate? I caught a bit of the EO/Knevel & Vandenbrink debate, and in my not entirely unbiased opinion Roemer did okay, while Rutte just was generally insufferable.

I didn't see the EO debate, apparently the viewers considered Samsom to be the winner again.

Remarkable about the RTL4 debate was Rutte, Roemer and Wilders accusing each other of lying, and Samsom being the only one who trying to say something about policy.

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There is also the debate on Radio 1 (public radio).

Apart from public broadcasting (Dutch public broadcasting is rather peculiar, broadcasting associations are mostly member based, and share TV and radio channels) there are 2 groups of commercial broadcasters. The RTL group and the SBS group. SBS is not interested in political debates, so only public broadcasting and RTL organizes debates.

Some are tradition:
- the AVRO/TROS debate, organised with the University of Rotterdam;
- 2 NOS debates on the evening before the elections, and on election night;
- 1 debate by RTL4
- the debate by Radio 1

All other debates are extra. Both the first RTL4 debate (with only 4 participants) as the EO debate was new. Participation is by invitation. Traditionally smaller parties are pissed about not being invited to some or all debates.

[freek]

Why does the EO have a debate, anyway? I can understand why the AVRO/TROS and the NOS do, but shouldn't the KRO and the NCRV also be included if the EO is?

Debates are not organized along bloodlines. Public broadcasting is much more complicated than just that.

AVRO and TROS cooperate in current affairs program EenVandaag, which organizes the debate together with Rotterdam University.  In the past EO and TROS cooperated in the same program.

 In 2010 a debate was organized by the VARA program Pauw&Witteman,  which is a late night current affairs talk show. EO Knevel&Van den Brink is broadcast in the same time slot while Pauw&Witteman is on summer break. They were scheduled to remain on summer break until after the elections. However,  a compromise was found, and both shows will alternate daily until the elections.

[freek]

Latest Synovate poll

VVD 34 (nc)
SP 27 (-3)
PvdA 26 (+4)
PVV 20 (+1)
D66 14 (nc)
CDA 13 (-1)
CU 5 (-1)
GL 4 (-1)
PvdD 4 (+1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50Plus 1 (nc)

PvdA is gaining fast. PvdA/VVD/D66 is on 74 seats at the moment.

[freek]

New Synovate poll (today)

VVD 35 (+1)
PvdA 30 (+4)
SP 24 (-3)
PVV 18 (-2)
CDA 14 (+1)
D66 14 (nc)
CU 4 (-1)
PvdD 4 (nc)
GL 3 (-1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50Plus 2 (+1)

[freek]

Well that sure sucks as hell... -__-

What could have possibly gone so wrong for the SP and/or so good for the PvdA to shift so quickly ? O_o'

Seems it was the telly debates.

Indeed.  Combined with strategic voting,  I guess.

[freek]

Forgot about the latest Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond poll (also September 3). This graph is self-explanatory:

[freek]

In addition to the televised debates, it is suggested that the calculations made by the Centraal Planbureau(CPB) has hurt SP severely. The CPB is the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and it analyzed the impact on the economy that each party's programme would have. The analysis suggests that the SP plan will mean 250.000 jobs less in 2040; mainly due to the worsening of the business climate as I understand it. CPB is a part of the ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation, but is fully independent as far as the contents of its work are concerned according to their website.

Yes, CPB is independent. Participation in the CPB analysis is voluntary. It gives an interesting analysis of Dutch election manifestos, but there are reasons to remain critical towards the results. It is not clear how correct the economic models are, that are used by CPB. Parties know how to tweak their input for the models, to maximize the results.

The analysis gives so many results (# of jobs created, budget deficit, economic growth, government debt, etc), both for the short term and the long term, that every party can pick a result that turns out positive for them.

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However, all these voters seem to move to the PvdA. Since de Telegraaf is the Dutch equivalent of the Daily Mail, I am not sure if this is the intended result of the paper.

[freek]

Anyway the new Politieke Barometer poll for the NOS:

VVD: 34
PvdA: 32
SP: 22
PVV: 20
CDA: 14
D66: 13
CU: 6
GL: 4
PvdD: 3
SGP: 2
50+: 2

And also a new EenVandaag poll (compared with the same poll, of August 29)

VVD 34 (+1)
PvdA 30 (+9)
SP 26 (-4)
PVV 17 (-1)
D66 12 (-2)
CDA 12 (-1)
CU 7 (nc)
GL 4 (nc)
SGP 3 (nc)
50PLUS 3 (-1)
PvdD 2 (-1)

[freek]

"Test your political preference in 30 statements", in English:
http://www.stemwijzer.nl/VM2012/index.html

It's similar to the German Wahl-O-Mat.

My result: a 4-way tie

[freek]

Mmmmh

1st place D66, then VVD, then GL,  and NEderland Lokaal, who are Nederland Lokal?

It's a grouping of municipal councillors of local/independent parties, usually from rural regions.

[freek]

In order: SP, PvdD, PvdA, GL, PVV, CDA, CU, D66, SGP, VVD

Why does GL support abolishing student grants?

GL reasons that graduates will have higher income due to their education, and therefore will be able to repay the low interest student loans that are provided by the government. Repayments will be based on the income of graduates, and after a certain number of years an eventual remainder will be converted into a grant.

Essentially this is the same system that already exists, the only difference being that until now the loan (or a part of it) is already converted automatically into a grant after graduation.

[freek]

Latest Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond poll:
VVD 33
PvdA 32
SP 23
PVV 19
D66 13
CDA 12
CU 5
GL 4
SGP 3
PvdD 3
50PLUS 3
Other 0

[freek]

Tomorrow, another debate will be broadcast. Political leaders were interviewed by the news programme for children. They will answer questions of children, debate some statements, and have a balloon inflation contest:



(left to right: Roemer, Samsom, Buma, Wilders and Rutte)

[freek]

Roemer should get a bounce from this.

He's illustrating how inflation will be ballooning when the SP comes to power.

Is this for real? Like, really real?

I'm digging the party hats though.

Yes, this is real, has been organised for the 3rd time, and it is quite popular with the party leaders. It is an opportunity to 'show their human side'.

Btw, it wasn't limited to party hats:

[freek]

In the latest Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond poll, a few additional questions were asked:

Which party do you hope to become the largest party, VVD or PvdA?
('Geen voorkeur' = no preference)


If VVD and PvdA remain this close in the polls, do you intend to vote strategically for VVD or PvdA?
(Shown is the percentage of voters that will switch for sure ('zeker'), or give it a large chance ('grote kans')



If 80% of the 'sure' group, and 40% of the 'large chance' group (apparently the maximum strategic vote effect), really switch to VVD and PvdA, this gives the following result:

[freek]

I didn't really like that quiz because a lot of the questions were unclear or didn't explain what the alternative was, like keeping parliament at 150 members, well does that mean expand or cut back? But anyway results:

VVD wants to decrease parliament size to 100 members (and the Senate from 75 to 50). All other parties don't want to cut it back.

You are right about the quiz though. Some questions have been criticized in the Netherlands too. The question about the unemployment benefits is not great either ("decrease the duration, increase the amount").

[freek]

New poll by TNS/Nipo. PvdA is now on par with VVD for the first time during this campaign:

Looks like we're heading for PvdA/VVD/D66, maybe with CDA

The only problem for a PvdA/VVD/D66 coalition would be the lack of a Senate majority.

This is the latest Synovate poll btw, not TNS Nipo.

[freek]

With Groenlinks they will have a majority in both chambers of Parliament.

If the PvdA wins they might push for that option.

Or just gamble on co-operation of either CDA, GL or CU/SGP, depending on the proposal. I can't imagine GL joining the coalition, with just 4 seats.

[freek]

Why doesn't Pvda simply form a coalition with SP?

Because they'd be 20 seats short of a majority, based on today's poll. GL could join that coalition, but CDA and D66 aren't too keen to do the same.

[freek]

Latest Peil.nl/De Hond poll:
VVD 35 (+2)
PvdA 35 (+3)
SP 20 (-3)
PVV 19 (nc)
CDA 13 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
CU 5 (nc)
GL 4 (nc)
SGP 3 (nc)
PvdD 3 (nc)
50Plus 2 (-1)