Dutch general election - September 2012

[freek]

Map of party support from last time, by province:

Clickable maps with the results per municipality here: http://www.zorgatlas.nl/beinvloedende-factoren/sociale-omgeving/stemgedrag/grootste-politieke-partij-2010/#breadcrumb

The largest party per municipality, and the score of the 4 largest parties (for the other parties, check the link above):

[freek]

That SP map is bizarre.



Marijnissen is from the westernmost dark red place and Roemer is from the cluster of five, but still... can't find anything implying a hard left tradition in the area.

SP was not founded in Oss, where Marijnissen originates from, but it is the area where the SP managed to grow large.

Until the 1970s, the area was part of the 90+% KVP block, like the rest of the South. Oss is an industrial city. However, as in the other industrial cities in the South, CPN and PvdA remained small. All members of the Catholic Church were expected to vote KVP. However, Oss is a poor city, so there was a base for left wing parties

Some left wing radical youngsters (one of them Marijnissen) founded a local Oss chapter of the SP when it was still a Maoist splinter in the early 1970s, although the party never really focussed on ideological discussions.

Through starting their own front organisations (trade union, tenants organisation, GP office) they managed to win more and more support in Oss, becoming larger and larger. During the 1970s, chapters were founded in the surrounding towns, for example in Boxmeer, where Roemer originates from.

[freek]

So basically a is-that-way-because-it-got-that-way thing. With an added "there was an opening for a leftwing opposition party here" angle.

Yes, it started quite accidentally. No tradition whatsoever, just a group of idealists who worked their asses off for decades. It had some characteristics of a cult, and the party was nick named "Red Jehovah's". Not only because of the complete dedication that was asked from members, but also because their party newspaper was sold door to door. Many members from the 1970s are still prominent members of the party. For example Marijnissen (chairman), Roemer, Jan de Wit (MP), Tiny Kox (senator), Bob Ruers (senator).

Interesting is that the SP is the wealthiest party in the Netherlands. It started with a gift from China when the party was still Maoist. This was invested in a printing press. Party brochures and newspapers were sold, not given away. Councillors, MPs, etc, have to hand over the entire income from parliament to the party, in return MPs receive a modest salary from the party.

[freek]

Latest Peil.nl/De Hond poll:
VVD 36 (+1)
PvdA 36 (+1)
SP 20 (nc)
PVV 18 (-1)
CDA 12 (-1)
D66 11 (nc)
CU 5 (nc)
GL 4 (nc)
SGP 3 (nc)
PvdD 3 (nc)
50Plus 2 (nc)

[freek]

Latest TNS NIPO poll:
VVD 35
PvdA 34
SP 21
PVV 17
D66 13
CDA 12
CU 6
50Plus 4
GL 4
SGP 2
PvdD 2

Latest EenVandaag poll:
VVD 35
PvdA 34
SP 22
PVV 17
CDA 12
D66 11
CU 7
GL 4
50Plus 3
SGP 3
PvdD 2

[freek]

Polling stations are open tomorrow between 07:30 and 21:00, except for the Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius, where the polling stations open and close 6 hours later.

Exit polls will be published immediately after 21:00, first results around 22:00, more or less final results around 01:00 (while the polls in the Caribbean are still open...).

[freek]

Polling stations are open tomorrow between 0730 and 2100, except for the Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius, where the polling stations open and close 6 hours later.

Exit polls will be published immediately after 2100, first results around 2200, more or less final results around 0100 (while the polls in the Caribbean are still open...).

This is the weirdest way of counting hours I've ever seen. Is that how you do in Netherlands ?

You mean the notation? I spent too much time at work. Usually it is hh.mm, however I work in IT, working on a computer program that uses hhmm. I hadn't even noticed that something was missing. I am glad my holiday starts tomorrow.

[freek]

And finally Synovate/Politieke Barometer:

VVD 37
PvdA 36

Other parties: Synovate on the right:

[freek]

Today, there were mock elections on quite a few high schools (12-18 years), over 100.000 votes. The results exaggerate the 'real' results, and especially the exaggerate the trends in the polls, but the changes since 2010 are interesting:

PvdA 35 (+10)
VVD 28 (nc)
PVV 19 (-11)
SP 17 (+5)
D66 15 (+1)
Pirates 14 (+6)
PvdD 8 (+1)
GL 6 (-7)
CDA 5 (-1)
CU 3 (-1)
SGP 3 (+1)
50PLUS 1 (new)
PvdT (Future Party) 1 (new)
ToN n/a (-1)

[freek]

50PLUS 1 (new)

High school students vote for pensioners' party?

Not every high school student takes it seriously, which also explains the seat for the PvdT.

[freek]

50PLUS 1 (new)

High school students vote for pensioners' party?

Not every high school student takes it seriously, which also explains the seat for the PvdT.

And what is the PvdT? Partij van de T??

Toekomst. Future Party. Led by TV personality and national clown Johan Vlemmix. It used to be the Dutch version of the Monster Raving Loony Party, but have now moved to a more serious policy. They also participated in 2002&2003.

In 2003, their election broadcast was this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8tVYE3m76A

[freek]

Just returned from my shift at the polling station. Turnout until now is similar to 2010. Final turnout was 75% then.

[freek]

The election's today? Thought it was on Sunday.

Nope. Elections are usually on Wednesdays. European elections on a Thursday, sometimes election day shifts to Tuesday due to some holiday.

The reason is religious. Calvinist protestants tend to dislike working on Sundays. Also, it saves money, because no civil servant has to work in the weekend.

[freek]

Well, SGP always profits when turnout is low

According to the NOS, turnout is 75% so far, and that's exactly what turnout was in 2010, so that doesn't explain the difference.

Some voters returned from voting CU or PVV back to the SGP.

[freek]

Question: what's the 1 "partial result" on the Google map? Overseas territories?

Rotterdam. Polls in the Caribbean are still open.

[freek]

Today it was announced that VVD and PvdA have reached a preliminary agreement about forming a coalition. Rather quick, it will be the fastest formation of a coalition since the 1980s.

[freek]

It's also a perfectly logical outcome from a democratic point of view and the two parties have worked together in the past.

^^^^^^^

Any other coalition would have been problematic.

Indeed. Other coalitions would have been monstrosities like PvdA/CDA/D66/SP.

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And Joker Samsom of course:
 

[freek]

The coalition agreement is quite detailed, and is characterised by a combination of austerity measures,  but higher incomes will have to pay for it. In general it seems balanced.

The names of the ministers also have been announced more or less officially. There are some surprises.

Lodewijk Asscher (PvdA alderman in Amsterdam) will be deputy PM. Jeanine Hennis (VVD MP and former MEP) will be the first female minister of Defense.

[freek]

Some measures are more or less election related:

The provinces of Noord-Holland,  Utrecht and Flevoland will merge
The other 9 provinces will be stimulated to merge too,  to 4 new provinces.
Municipalities (currently on average 40,000 inhabitants)  will merge into new municipalities with at least 100,000 inhabitants.
Water boards (which are elected directly) will be elected simultaneously with the province elections.
Provincial and municipal councils will be decreased in size.

[freek]

And there they are.  Cabinet-Rutte II, sworn in this morning. Actually. they were sworn in twice, the ceremony had to be repeated, because NOS (public broadcasting) was still broadcasting commercials at the time.



In the latest poll, VVD managed to lose 11 (7%) seats in 1 week.  PvdA already lost their more or less artificial support to the SP in the weeks after the elections. VVD took a hit because of the coalition agreement, which included a health insurance reform. This would lead to considerably higher costs (€500/month or more) for people earning €50,000/year or more, i.e. the typical VVD voter.

The plans caused quite some uproar, it seemed that Rutte and other VVD hadn't realized its implications, and it led to panic in the VVD.

Latest Maurice de Hond/Peil.nl poll (compared with the September 12 elections)
PvdA 30 (-8)
VVD 27 (-14)
SP 22 (+7)
PVV 20 (+5)
D66 16 (+4)
CDA 15 (+2)
50PLUS 5 (+3)
CU 5 (nc)
PvdD 4 (+2)
SGP 3 (nc)
GL 3 (-1)

[freek]

Next elections (apart from early municipal elections):

March 5, 2014*: Municipal elections
June 5, 2014: European elections
March 4, 2015: Province elections
May 26, 2015: First Chamber elections (by the provincial legislatures)
March 8, 2017*: Second Chamber elections

* tentative dates, coincide with religious holidays, and will probably move 1 day (or 1 week).