EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[freek]

Dutch turnout figures by Ipsos so far:

8 % had voted at 10.30, it was 9 % in 2009

15 % had voted at 13.30, it was 16 % in 2009

Final turnout in 2009 was 36,75 %

http://nos.nl/artikel/651130-opkomst-om-1330-uur-15.html

The question just is: Are these figures including postal voting yet or not ?

And because today is a work-day, you can expect most people to vote after work.

Which means, based on these early figures, we cannot say yet if turnout will be down or not.

No, these figures are without postal votes, but only people living abroad are allowed to vote by mail. Most people will vote after work, but that was also the case for 2009, so the turnout will be similar or lower than in 2009.

There will be no official results tonight (only an exitpoll), but weblog http://www.geenstijl.nl/ will have observers in about 1500 of 9000 polling stations. Results will be announced on their website.

[freek]

Probably not completely legal, but this is the result of 'my' polling station, and the result in the 2012 and 2010 national elections. Unfortunately, I don't have the result of the 2009 EP elections anymore.

[freek]

Why do CDA historically well in European elections?

Low turnout.

[freek]

Will the far right get his group?

I guess the UKIP and Afd will never caucuse with them.

It actually looks slightly better for Le Pen/Wilders than Farage, I reckon. This looks rather certain: EAF will have FN with 24, PVV with 4, FPÖ with 4, SD with 2 and VB with 1.
The EFD will have UKIP with 24, Lithuanian TT with 2, Svobodní with 1 and SGP with 1.

SGP will probably join ECR. The party was refused entry in the ECR 5 years ago because of its ban on party membership for women. This has been sorted out, women are allowed to join the SGP now (and 2 months ago the first female SGP municipal councillor has been elected).

[freek]

Dutch results, still preliminary (three municipalities counted their votes yesterday, as part of an experiment with vote counting on a central location on the day after the elections). Also, the postal votes are not included yet:



CDA won a 5th seat because of their alliance with CU/SGP
PvdA won a 3rd seat because of their alliance with GroenLinks

[freek]

Off topic, but I'm confused wrt the Netherlands results - how did CDA get less votes than D66 but more seats? I thought this was PR, not some FPTP silliness...

CDA was in an electoral alliance with CU/SGP, or as Dutch electoral law calls it: "combination of lists". This means that initially CDA & CU/SGP are seen as 1 list, when seats are apportioned, using the D'Hondt method. CDA+CU/SGP had enough votes for 7 seats.
Then, there is a second division, where for alliances seats are apportioned for the separate lists. The largest remainder / Hare-Niemeyer method is used. For this, a new alliance quota is calculated.

The CDA+CU/SGP together had 1.086.609 votes and 7 seats, so the quota is  155.229,86
CDA had 721.766 votes. 721.766/quota = 4,65 seats
CU/SGP had 364.843 votes. 364.843/quota = 2,35 seats.

CDA has the largest remainder -> CDA 5 seats, CU/SGP 2 seats.

Something similar happened for PvdA, which had 3 seats because of its alliance with GroenLinks, while SP had more votes and 2 seats.