Australia 2007: Costello vs. Rudd

[Smid]

Deakin and Corangamite would have stayed Liberal. Libs may have done better in Sturt in SA, but he won anyway. Maybe wouldn't have lost Makin in SA. Probably wouldn't have influenced Solomon in NT. Probably would have done a little worse in NSW than otherwise, but I can't pick seats there. Would have done worse in Qld, but the Rudd factor swamped that and I think wouldn't have resulted in any changes - including the Liberal (now marginals) of Dickson and Bowman. The Howard effect in Qld was strongest in the outer-suburban seats of Longman, Petrie, Moreton and possibly Forde and Blair, although I think Forde was Liberal more because of the retiring Member rather than the Howard factor, so I don't think that result would have changed. If Beazley had stayed on following the Liberal leadership change, and no Rudd challenge, Dickson wouldn't be marginal and Bowman may not have been and Petrie might still be Liberal and possibly Longman (although that's a tougher call to make). Howard was very popular in Moreton, but Rudd ended up being more popular. Probably would have been the same result there.