Latest Generic Polls: Ras +12%R; WSJ 6%R; Gallup 15%R; CNN 10R; Fox13R; Bloom 3R

[Sbane]

Is it possible that the Republicans will do much better on the congressional 2 way vote total as opposed to for the Senate? I ask this because I don't see how Republicans are +10 and losing Washington, Connecticut, California and are close in Colorado, Kentucky or Pennsylvania.

Also I found an interesting nugget in the pew poll. 12% of Democrats (the fifth highest response) would be "okay" with a GOP takeover of the house and 5% would be satisfied.

[Sbane]

Gallup's low turnout model assumes a 43% turnout. So, that poll is either wrong because the turnout will be higher than 43%, or wrong even though the turnout assumption is correct, or it is right. Which is it, Vorlon?  I myself strongly doubt the turnout will be above 43%, and I suspect it will be lower.

I am on record as saying I think the GOP, broadly speaking, is being under polled by about 3% or so.

So do you think we are likely to see the Republicans win the house with a 12 point margin? Then we would likely see the Republicans gain close to 70 seats and your prediction would be way off.

[Sbane]

Washington is certainly a tough one to call. I have a feeling that will be going down to the wire. Colorado could be interesting as well, and that came out of nowhere.

[Sbane]

It seems like the floor for the GOP, in terms of the generic ballot, is about +8. Some are showing less, but I expect the GOP to outperform those polls. Then there is Gallup. I don't expect a 15 point GOP win, but a 10-12 win isn't out of the question. A 10 point margin would mean Republicans win about 60-65 seats and if the margin creeps up towards 12-13 then 70-75 is possible. And considering that there are just so many tossup districts this time around, even greater losses could occur than we think possible. One thing is for sure though, if Republicans win this sort of majority they can't just keep being the party of no. Looks like they might actually have to govern. Sucks for them.