NV-02 special election: 9/13

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So the only thing interesting left to watch in this race are the Washoe numbers?

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Here's an interesting breakdown of TV advertising in this race:

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Indeed this is interesting. Considering how much more the Republicans have been spending, if they still can't win Washoe in this political environment......

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Yup, this district was always out of reach for the Dems. Washoe results are the only interesting thing left to see and it looks like it's going the Republicans way. Another non-southern (and pretty irreligious)white working class area falling for Obama.

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I'm going to say:
53-44, Amodei

You will be correct, Tmth. I can feel it in my bones.

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So Obama would lose Nevada by about 4-6 points currently(if not worse)?

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Ok, Perry is a retard and people would probably think twice before voting for him. I am exaggerating a bit, sure. But these results are really bad news. The Dems losing Washoe by 10 points? How can you spin that positively?

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I think right now Obama would lose to Romney by at least 4-6 points in Washoe(and Nevada), if not more. Perry is a wildcard. Look, this doesn't mean the Dems have lost their support everywhere. Just in specific places and with constituents they need to win in order to win the Presidency, or the House, or Garamendi's seat. Or for that matter Mcnerney. He is going to have a tough fight as well. Those sorts of areas are rapidly trending away from the Democrats, and they actually swung towards Obama in 2008. Not that this is too surprising. These are the areas hit hardest by the recession.

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Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

The Mormon thing hasn't hurt Harry Reid in Nevada.  Nevada has a decent sized Mormon population.  Whatever Nevada anti-Mormon vote there is should be offset by the Mormon vote.

Yeah, Sam meant the opposite. Actually Romney's mormonism won't hurt him most anywhere out west. In the south and lower midwest, not so sure. Not that it will cause him to lose but it might be worth a point or two there.