Well, let them think that I guess.
The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple. Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.
Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.
Registration in the new AZ-02 is only 34.7 R, 34.2 D, 31.1 I. The new district, of course (your favorite phrase), is very similar to the old one.
The new district is 3 points more Dem actually. AZ has a quite skillful Dem gerrymander.
You know all this complaining about this district takes away attention from the real gerrymandering that went on in the Phoenix area. I know the commission didn't follow your plan to crack Tucson liberals, and thus you are pissed, but the real shenanigans went on in Phoenix in the 9th district and also with the 1st distict, with Sedona somehow ending up in it in the final cut. Tucson is a fast growing area with a substantial Democrat voting population. Why should it have a Republican leaning district instead of the swing district that it is currently? And why should it have Cochise when more than a district can fit into Pima County?
Anyways, this election will be a test for PPP. I think they have oversampled Democrats for this poll. Obama won by 6 in this sample when in reality he lost the district. I think the Democrat still wins but only by 5 or 6.
