Are you surprised that CO-SEN ended up way closer than IA-SEN?

[Sbane]

No, but the fact that Udall ended up winning Jefferson county was get surprising to me.

Also, the big swing to the GOP in the Midwest was very surprising to me. I don't think you can explain all of that with low turnout. Either Obama has been doing better in the Midwest than the Democratic baseline in the Midwest or something has changed in the last 2 years.

[Sbane]

The Midwest in general has a lot of swing voters (I was about to add 'in the current environment' again, but when hasn't that been true?) and swing voters who have not had a great time of it materially speaking. There was also a notably big swing there in 2010 and 2006.

Yeah, of course. But one of the talking points of the Democrats has been that most of the disaster can be explained by lower turnout. That certainly doesn't explain things in the Midwest. They swung in 2010 but re-elected Obama in 2012. They have swung right back this year. Are they coming back to the Democrats in 2016 or are they giving the Republicans the presidency?

[Sbane]

Yup, all eyes on Iowa and Wisconsin.

[Sbane]

It is an apples to oranges comparison because one was open and the other was not. Also, it was not picked up on just how Republican Indies were going to vote and knowing that result would have made IA more likely but IA indies are more elastic I suspect then Colorado's where more of them are "too leftwing for the Democrats" Indies in Boulder.

CO and IA used to always vote together. 32 (FDR), 36 (FDR) 40 (Wilkie) 44 (Dewey) 48 (Truman), 52 (Ike) 56 (Ike) 60 (Nixon), 64 (LBJ) 68 (Nixon) 72 (Nixon), 76 (Ford), 80 (Reagan) 84 (Reagan). Only 1988 does IA diverge and start vote for Dukakis because of the previously mentioned farming crisis.

It is always one of the most undiverse states in the union, whereas CO has a strong minority voting bloc. The Republicans therefore between the more friendly indies and fewer minorities have a higher ceiling then Republicans in Colorado.

Having more minorities, especially Hispanics and Asians, in a midterm election is not advantageous for the Democrats. Look at the results from Adams, Pueblo and even Arapahoe to an extent. The Democrats didn't have that much trouble from the suburban white independent vote in Colorado, it was the Hispanics and rural/exurban independents who swung it for Gardner. Looking at the results from Broomfield and Jefferson, one would think there was a recount going on right now in Colorado.