Quebec: April 7, 2014

[MaxQue]

QS outraised CAQ ($226,469 to $180,214)

It happened last quarter, I think, too.

[MaxQue]

Is CAQ to go the way of the ADQ?

Yeah. Cyclical for the ADQ: 2002-3, 2007-8.

And CAQ had 2012-2013. So, can we expect a revival around 2017?

[MaxQue]

If Legault sticks around after seeing his party nearly wiped out and losing his own seat. Which I doubt.

I don't think than Legault will stay after another defeat, but ADQ/CAQ always kept a couple of seats. I doubt than those people will fade.

[MaxQue]

English media is in fantasyland if they think an English debate is happening for the first time in 30 years. Though I could definitely see Lisée being very interested if he becomes leader at some point.

Obviously, since Marois can't really be called fluent in English and I can't remember being very impressed by Legault's English.

[MaxQue]

Oops: brainfart. But PLQ is still lousy on under-30 recruitment.

According to the Assembly website, there is 9 MNA under-40 at the time of last election. 5 PQ, 2 CAQ, 2 PLQ. If we settle at under-30, it's 3, all PQ.

Those are:
Léo Bureau-Blouin (PQ, Laval-des-Rapides, 22 years)
Mathieu Traversy (PQ, Terrebonne, 29 years)
Dave Turcotte (PQ, Saint-Jean, 30 years)
Alexandre Cloutier (PQ, Lac-Saint-Jean, 36 years)
Pascal Bérubé (PQ, Matane-Matapédia, 39 years)
Karine Vallières (PLQ, Richmond, replaced her father as MNA, 36 years later this month)
Marc Tanguay (PLQ, Bourassa-Sauvé, 40-41 years)
Sylvain Lévesque (CAQ, Vanier-Les Rivières, 40 years)
Sébastien Schneeberger (CAQ, Drummond--Bois-Francs, 40 years)

[MaxQue]

I will be releasing my numbers soon, be patient

I just took the vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/features/view/vote-compass

PVQ: 68%
ON: 55% :
QS: 52%
Cons: 46% :
PLQ: 46%
PQ: 43%
CAQ: 39%

According to the chart, QS is the most left wing party, but only slightly more left than the Greens.

Alex Tyrrell, the new Green leader (and former federal NDP candidate), transformed the Green party in an "ecosocialist" party, according to his own words.

[MaxQue]

I will be releasing my numbers soon, be patient

I just took the vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/features/view/vote-compass

I got
PVQ: 73%
QS: 69%
ON: 66%
PLQ: 56%
PQ: 55%
CAQ: 51%
PCQ: 39%

[MaxQue]

Here are my week 1 projections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/03/2014-quebec-provincial-election-week-1.html

You may begin your criticisms now.

Perhaps you should disable the spelling corrector in OpenOffice.

[MaxQue]

Dunno how your (and TCTC/308) model accounts for Houda-Pepin as I-PLQ in La Piniere, or indies in general.

I don't know much about her, but I suspect she carries little personal vote with her. I'll probably look up the average % an independent incumbent gets over the last few elections and give her that. What do others think? 

I doubt you will find many independant incumbents to do your average.

[MaxQue]

Yeah, 1 in the last 60 years isn't exactly a great sample size. FWIW 308 has her at 21% on average, with the fat doctor at 40%.

Despite him being a star candidate, I doubt he will get much personnal vote (I wouldn't be surprised if he had a negative personnal vote, everytime I heard someone talking about him, it was negative. I'm not in Montreal area, but I doubt he is much more appreciated there).

[MaxQue]

If Marois gets a majority she will enact the Charte and amend that other Charte to francize medium and small business. Plus the euthanasia bill. Fortunately no CEGEP-101.

Well, euthanasia seems to be a done deal, no matter if she gets a majority (or even, no matter the winner).

[MaxQue]

Why did they include the Conservative Party? Are they running a full slate or something?

No, but neither will Greens.

[MaxQue]

I'm curious; in what way does a party like QS not share the same views as the FTQ?

QS isn't exactly pro-union either. They prefer local models, cooperatives and the like. They are becoming closer with time (last time, FTQ didn't endorse either, but Montréal-FTQ endorsed QS).

The main issue is their very Montreal, Plateau reputation, which is a not an asset for factory unions in regions.

[MaxQue]

So, no regional breaks? Grrr.

The article seems to imply there is regional breaks in the poll, but those aren't in the article.

[MaxQue]

A Quebec city area poll shows the PLQ opening a 7 point lead. Don't have the exact numbers, results will be made public tomorrow.

I don't know if it's Péladeau's entrance and greater fear of a referendum, a continuation of the anti-PQ campaign by radio stations, or the mayor speaking against CAQ not wanting to finance an indoor skating oval and other projects.

I imagine province wide PLQ could be in the lead in voting intentions with a result like this.

The Forum poll having a Liberal Quebec-wide lead of 2 had a 22 point lead in Quebec City Area, while the Léger one (with a Quebec-wide PQ lead of 2) had a Liberal lead of 1 in Quebec City. So, a lead of 7 in Quebec City isn't surprising.

[MaxQue]

Considering that the PQ's reputation for being maybe just a little bit racist has clearly damaged it electorally over the years (even if it hasn't cost votes directly, it sure helps to drive up minority turnout for the PLQ), it's weird that they don't seem to have done anything to address it. Of course that's partly because... you know... but you'd think they would at least have learned to be a bit more... presentable.

It is amazing to me how little they seem to care about broadening their appeal. Pretty much the only reason I keep thinking the PLQ will end up winning this is because the PQ seems so insistent on pissing different people off at random. It's like they're determined to find a way to lose.

Well, the issue is than their base is very diverse and various measures are needed to keep the base happy.

It's the issue when a party is built around electability, not ideology.

[MaxQue]

Laurier-Dorion contains to many allophones to go anything but PLQ - it largely overlaps Trudeau's Papineau riding...St. Marie-St. Jacques is more analogous to Mercier and is a better fit for QS

Demography is not helping them. The Allophones are in the Parc-Extension part.
But there is intense growth in the other path of the riding, Villeray (which is very Plateau-like and very opposed to Liberals).

Also, the St-Michel part which is in Papineau federal riding (and heavily Allophone) is in Viau, I think.

[MaxQue]

Ste Marie - St. Jacques would've been a better choice for Fonticiella, but him running in Laurier-Dorion  puts that riding in play.  Both Khadir and David received an average of 8% boosts in each election they were leader, and 1/3 of that boost came from Liberal voters. 

And running in Ste-Marie--St-Jacques would have required to remove Manon Massé as their candidate (at every election since that 2005 by-election, the first ever contested by QS).

[MaxQue]

PQ's Megantic candidate has some interesting views on welfare recipients.

Wrong link, Rogue.

[MaxQue]

I'm pretty sure PQ won 450 area since 1976 (they perhaps lost it in 2007), and I don't see why those would suddently swing massively to Liberals.

[MaxQue]

Dear God, they want to ban the burqa at universities now. But this totally has nothing to do with Muslims.

Well, burqa was banned in my department at university for security reasons.

[MaxQue]

Some discussion about it not being weighted by language.

Yeah right - with a 13 point lead - you could disenfranchise all anglophones and the Liberals would still be ahead. I see Pequistes are starting to sound like Romney supporters grasping at straws with "Unskewed polls" (sic.)

Sorry, but a 10-point lead for Liberals in the North Shore isn't remotely believable. It's sounding more like Fox News commissionning polls to cater to their audience (here being an English chaneel catering to English Canada news).

[MaxQue]

I sceptical of the size of the Liberal lead here but the overall trend is unmistakable - every single poll has had growing Liberal support and a drop off for the PQ Leger (=), CROP (PLQ+3), Ipsos (PLQ+5) now Forum (PLQ+13) - something is happening...just not sure how big it is.

I would be wary of using different pollsters (with different methodologies) to show such a trend. I do not deny a Liberal trend, but I wouldn't trust Ipsos or Forum right now. Not without being backed by a more reputable pollster.

[MaxQue]

I would say than the winners are Legault and David.

Marois sounded clueless and Couillard like a bully listening no one.

[MaxQue]

45% for PLQ in Northern quebec?

If i live in Nunavik (Ungava) I would vote PLQ to defeat PQ

I HOPE Inuit and Cree territory going high vote turnout next month!
I dont want to see them low 28% in Nunavik and 16% in Cree communities......

They don't usually rush to vote. Quebec government is very distant for them (most services are provided by the federal government, so they don't really care about Quebec).

And, I know than some, which are usually voting, didn't voted in the recent elections. They can't imagine ot voting Liberals, but refused to support them, given the disaster than the last Charest term was for them. The government wasn't talking to them and was trying to impose them mining projects, refusing to fund housing...

There is a reason why QS polled over 10% in some reservations and than Liberal turnout was low. First Nations leadership didn't liked at all the Liberal government. I suppose they don't like PQ either, but for language and independance, rather lack of dialogue.

Ironically, most progress and talks between Quebec government and First Nations happened under PQ, in the recent decades.