British Local Elections, May 2024

[MaxQue]

What are the chances the Greens get a majority in Bristol?

They currently have 25 seats (including the by-election gain in Hotwells & Harbourside) and need 36. There are five wards (Ashley, Bedminster, Central, Eastville, Lawrence Hill) where they have one or two councillors and Labour have one, so they could get to 30 by winning the remaining seats in these.

Beyond that it becomes a bit harder: the demographically most obvious targets have already been won, and they haven't come close yet in many other wards. They are certainly capable of breaking through in more wards, but they'd need to do so in at least three, so Filwood and Horfield wouldn't be enough.

A majority probably involves coming in the middle in a three-way race in a place like Avonmouth or Westbury, looking at 2021 results.

[MaxQue]

There was also this direct reply for the CCHQ tweet

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118

who is this Theo Usherwood? Is he reputable?

Political editor at LBC.

[MaxQue]

There was also this direct reply for the CCHQ tweet

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1786150982579065118

Maybe the bar opened earlier and consolation shots are having an early effect?

When will London results be announced? This evening or in the morning?

Saturday late afternoon.

[MaxQue]

Tories apparently fearing a potential wipeout in both Lincoln and Redditch

Redditch is an all-out due to new wards and I'm not sure there any other opposition to Labour there, either.