I finally thought to update this thingy.
5 Pub incumbents are going down in Illinois Lewis? Is the CW's body count that high? What do you think Muon2?
Illinois won't be more than -4. Tim Johnson isn't going to lose. That would require the Democrats to sweep all the ~51% Kerry districts (8, 10, 11, 12, 17)
I agree that it will be hard for a D sweep of the target districts. IL-12 wasn't even supposed to on the table, but with Costello's retirement it is in play for the GOP. Of course at least one from the GOP goes down in the primary between Manzullo and Kinzinger in IL-16. But it will take long coattails to move all D's to a win for R-6. Foster vs Biggert in IL-11 will be interesting, and Dold has the advantage of watching his opponents battle in the IL-10 D primary - none of whom stands out at the moment.
I expect the barnburner will be Walsh vs Duckworth in IL-8. Duckworth lost an open seat battle to Roskam in IL-6 that is PVI even in a very good year for Dems in IL. The new 8th is D+5, and a lot is from the current IL-6, and as in 2006 I expect this race to take on national interest.
