The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[muon2]

A factor which should not be overlooked among IL Pubs is the frustration at feeling like they have had no voice in state government for over a decade and an utter distaste for the status quo over that period of time. The two leading candidates offer very different visions, Dillard harkens back to the last great GOP Gov of IL, Jim Edgar from the mid 90's, for whom Dillard was Chief of Staff. Rauner looks to a newer model of GOP success often quoting Walker, Daniels and to a lesser degree Snyder. Rauner has captured that frustrated base who want change and see the modern model as more attractive than the GOP Midwest of Edgar, Tommy Thompson, and John Engler.

[muon2]

Supposedly a bit of D crossover votes for Dillard. I'm guessing that they think Quinn is going to lose anyway, so why not get the most liberal Republican?

Dillard's actually quite conservative socially, though not as much as Brady. The difference for Dems is that Dillard's not anti-union.

[muon2]

2% in

Rauner: 49%
Dillard: 35%
Brady: 12%
Rutherford: 5%

Quinn: 78%
Hardiman: 22%

Looks like Quinn might win handily. Rauner got a decent lead with a 2% sample.

Lake County is the main portion of that with some Cook and a smattering of other counties.

[muon2]

8% in

Truax is leading Oberweis in the Senate primary. 52-48

Rauner - 47
Dillard - 36
Brady - 12
Rutherford - 5

Oberweis' strength is greatest away from Chicago where he benefits from his name ID. Also the Chicago media hit Oberweis this last week for spending a few days in Florida for his wife's birthday.

I suppose this should be in the thread on the other board.

[muon2]

Another Democratic State Rep. facing a challenge from his left partially over education, Christian Mitchell of HD-26, is leading 53-47 over progressive activist Jay Travis.



In HD-81, Ron Sandack (R-Incumbent), who voted in favor of gay marriage in 2013, is losing to social conservative Keith Matune 47-53.

Mitchell's opponent is funded by unions upset at his vote to cut pensions.

The HD-81 vote is just the early voting.

[muon2]

IL has no runoff provisions. FPTP all the way.

[muon2]

HD-81
Keith R. Matune   50.6%
Ron Sandack       49.4%
84% Reporting

The Tea Party may have their next confirmed kill in the extinction of the moderates.

It's a shame that it gives Moderate R's one more reason not to support gay marriage. Although I think we're done with the major legislative battles for that issue for the time being.

To be fair, Rep. Sullivan survived his challenge up in Libertyville/Mundelein, and it hasn't been an issue for Cross in the Treasury race.

Cross' opponent Bob Grogan pledged not to make it an issue, and lived up to that pledge.

[muon2]

If the election was a week later, would Dillard have won? He outperformed the polls quite drastically.

Not necessarily. There was a big GOTV for inds and Dems to take GOP ballots for Dillard as the anti-Rauner. Polls can't catch that. There was also a bleed off of part of Brady's vote when it was clear who the most likely socon winner would be, and that might have continued going forward. The best thing for Dillard would have been for Rutherford to announce his withdrawal from the race, and they would not have gone to Rauner but split between Dillard and Brady.

[muon2]

Hopefully, this prompts politicians to change the system so that there is a runoff. Clearly Hynes would have beaten Quinn in 2010 and Dillard would have won in 2014, had there been one. There should never be a case where an endangered incumbant should never be primaried again. Reflected in his poor turnout numbers.

Runoffs are considered expensive since in most years it requires an additional election. Would a top-two open primary (CA-style) have produced a better result?