Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

[muon2]

What is the weather like in Illinois?  Dr. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel just raised his TOR CON to a 6 for the central and northwest parts of the state.  How will that affect voting turnout?

The reports I'm reading are voting is anywhere from a little to a lot up. There are some scorching hot primary races (read $5M+ for a legislative seat primary) and that is driving up turnout. In the Springfield area the unions are pushing their Dems to take a Pub ballot for a specific State Senate race.

So far the weather has only impacted the NW corner of the state. Storms started early this morning around Rock Island, and this afternoon they are moving into Rockford. It's sunny and mild right now here in the Chicago burbs. It's unclear when the storms will get here.

[muon2]

It amuses me that FOX and other national media continue to refer to IL as a proportional state for delegates. It is anything but that. There is a block of delegates to the statewide winner and then the top three delegates in each congressional district are elected directly with their presidential preference shown. It is easily possible for Trump to get all of the delegates without an outright majority of the vote.

[muon2]

Kasich may pick up a few delegates from suburban Chicago. He's got delegates with better name recognition, and that has mattered in past years.

[muon2]

Kasich is leading with all three delegates in CD 7 with 46% in (Chicago Loop dominates the GOP vote here).

Kasich is leading one delegate in CD 9 with 47% in and has another delegate in fourth a close race for third place (north and northwest Cook suburbs primarily).

[muon2]

Kasich is leading with all three delegates in CD 7 with 46% in (Chicago Loop dominates the GOP vote here).

Kasich is leading one delegate in CD 9 with 47% in and has another delegate in fourth a close race for third place (north and northwest Cook suburbs primarily).

Trump may end up sweeping in IL despite the congressional district rules.


Wonder how strongly Cruz runs downstate...that may detract a bit from The Don.

How does Trump take all of IL's delegates?

He won't. Kasich is leading for 5 delegates in Cook, and Cruz will likely get a few downstate. Name ID matters in IL delegate races.

[muon2]

Trump will get the 15 statewide delegates. Of the 54 district delegates, Kasich is leading in 6 in Chicagoland and Cruz leads in 8 downstate. That would leave the other 40 for Trump for a total of 55 from IL.

[muon2]

"Reporters don't understand basic physics." - TRUMP

I'd be happy to give some lessons to reporters and candidates.

[muon2]

Kasich now has two delegates leading in IL-10 along with 3 in IL-7 and 2 in IL-9. One in IL-6 is a possibility, too (out of third by 24 votes).

Cruz has a lead with 2 delegates in IL-13, 1 in IL-15, 1 in IL-16, 2 in IL-17 and all three in IL-18.

[muon2]

Kasich now has two delegates leading in IL-10 along with 3 in IL-7 and 2 in IL-9. One in IL-6 is a possibility, too (out of third by 24 votes).

Cruz has a lead with 2 delegates in IL-13, 1 in IL-15, 1 in IL-16, 2 in IL-17 and all three in IL-18.

Love it muon.


According to 538, Trump needs to SWEEP EVERY CD in IL/MO to just barely stay on track for the nomination. It looks likely he will only win 10/18 CDs in IL and may not even win MO.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17473553

He still gets some delegates in 6 of those other 8 CDs as it currently stand. He's only shut out in IL-7 and IL-18. I have Trump with 53 of 69 IL delegates.

[muon2]

For those wondering what happens to Rubio's delegates

This is from 538...yikes

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17473553

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I thought that's why he suspended his campaign but did not withdraw.

[muon2]

In IL Kasich still leads for 7 delegates and Cruz for 9 delegates, that leaves 53 for Trump.

[muon2]

Pat Brady, former IL state GOP chair, is back in third again as a Kasich delegate. That would make it Trump 52, Cruz 9, Kasich 8 from IL.

[muon2]

The clearest case where a Trump delegate candidate in Illinois failed to get elected because of their name was in the 6th district:



Why did Trump voters back his delegates who had the last names Minch and Kois, but not someone named “Nabi Fakroddin”?  I’m trying to think of a reason. 

Likewise, Trump delegate candidate Taneequa Tolbert underperformed in CD2 (though still got elected, so it didn’t matter in the end).  And in CD13, Trump delegate candidate Raja Sadiq underperformed, and didn’t make it (though probably would have lost regardless of name in that case).

Why don’t Trump supporters want him to have delegates with last names like Fakroddin and Sadiq? 

The actual delegates are who made the difference here. Pat Brady is the former state GOP chair and Ron Sandack is the GOP Floor leader in the IL House. Both get a lot of press. Aaron Del Mar is the chair of the Cook GOP so he gets some press, too, but not as much as the other two for Kasich. Nabi Fakroddin lives in the town next to mine and he's a good guy, a professional engineer, and a member of the Illinois Human Rights Commission first appointed by Quinn and reappointed by Rauner. It's a shame his name would be a barrier for him.