Polls

[muon2]

Polling firms uses different standards (like the questionable Zogby internet polls or the current LA Times un-weighted poll), which makes it difficult to compare them or decide which will be most reflective of the voters opinions.
 I think the Rasmussen daily polls (really three day polls released each day) maybe one of the most useful.  Every day he uses the same methodology, polls the same number of voters, applies the same weighting.  Thus although his absolute numbers may or may not be correct, any real change in the voters preferences from Bush to Kerry or vice versa should be very reliably detected by him.
The amazing thing is that since early March, there has been no significant change, its been a statistical dead heat:  on any given day Bush and Kerry bounce around 44-47%.  There is no evidence that any of the advertising, campaigning, or Iraq events have substantially changed either candidate’s support.  For June Bush has been ahead on 4 days, Kerry on 3, and both tied on 5 days.
This poll is updated every day at noon:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

I watch it every day and it appears that the undecideds are becoming decided. This is the second day in a row its been Bush 47 Kerry 44. Bush is about to break out IMHO and take off with it. Barring another scandal.

The interesting feature is that the preference poll is also clearly lining up with improved polling for Bush on other masures - Job approval, foreign policy, and the economy. If all these hold for the rest of the month that would bode well for Bush.

[muon2]

I just read this morning that pollster Robert Teeter died. He's been one of Vorlon's top rated pollsters, and works with Hart for the WSJ poll. Will his death have an impact on that poll's performance?

[muon2]

I've noticed on the polls page the national Rasmussen is slipping further down the list. It's a tracking poll, and updated every day. It would be useful if Rasmussen was updated on a somewhat regular basis on the polls page as well, perhaps monthly.

This will probably become a greater concern as more pollsters turn to daily tracking after Labor Day.

[muon2]

It looks like state polls are getting into the polling section regularly, but national polls are way behind. There was some discussion awhile ago about putting in the weekly Rasmussen, it hasn't been updated since May.

[muon2]

It looks like state polls are getting into the polling section regularly, but national polls are way behind. There was some discussion awhile ago about putting in the weekly Rasmussen, it hasn't been updated since May.

I believe this link to National poll averages it right up to date.

Link to poll averages

Thanks.

It would be handy if the polls page on the forum used that as a link instead of the out-of date listings that are currently there.