Illinois House Thread

[muon2]

The 2008 Congressional races in IL are unusually busy next year. There are now three open GOP seats (IL-11, 14, 18) with primary contests looming for both parties in all three. In addition there are significant D primaries expected in two seats (IL-3 and 10), with the latter leading to an expected close contest in the general. And IL-8 will again be an interesting race with primaries on both sides, and the probable return of an independent in the race.

I'll try to use this to keep the forum updated on the latest news from IL.

[muon2]

The Joliet Herald had a good first look at some of the candidates talking about the race to succeed Weller in IL-11. Joliet is the biggest city in the district and its the the seat of Will County which makes up about half the vote in the district.

There's a new entrant into the IL-14 race on the R side named Rudy Clai. There's another story here.

The D primary to challenge Lipinski in IL-3 is heating up. Daily Kos has endorsed challenger Mark Pera. Another potential challenger is Gerald Bennett who's looking into specific transportation issues as he explores a run.

[muon2]

There is alot of rural area in the district [IL-14] which is quite conservative

How much does it sway the district? In 2000, about 70% of the district lived in Kane and Kendall County, and those two counties have gained 120,000 people since then making them even more of the center of population.

A very rough breakdown from 2006 voting is 60% Kane, 10% Kendall, 10% DuPage, 10% DeKalb, 10% western counties.

[muon2]

The Chicago Tribune has numbers for many of the key races. The Capitol Fax Blog includes more detail.

[muon2]

A forum in IL-14 gave a quick peek at the R candidates. The Aurora Beacon News represents the largest city in the district and covered the Kendall County event.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[muon2]

Dems can pick-up three to seven seats in Illinois.

Which two are you conceding? Why not go for all nine?

[muon2]

Today is the first day to file for the 2008 election in IL. Here's the rundown on all the congressional filings. First day filings have no date listed. Others show the date of filing.

IL 1:
Bobby L. Rush (D, Inc) - objection overruled
William Walls III (D) 11/5 - objection overruled
Antoine Members (R)

IL 2:
Jesse L. Jackson Jr. (D, Inc)

IL 3:
Mark N. Pera (D)
Jim Capparelli (D)
Daniel William Lipinski (D, Inc) - objection overruled
Jerry Bennett (D)
Arthur J. Jones (R)
Michael Hawkins (R) 10/31
Raymond G. Wardingly (R) 10/31 withdrawn 11/13
Jerome Pohlen (G) 11/5[/i] - objection overruled
Richard B. Mayers (G) 11/5 - objection sustained

IL 4:
Luis V. Gutierrez (D, Inc)

IL 5:
Rahm Emanuel (D, Inc)
Alan Augustan (G) 11/5

IL 6:
Stan Jagla (D) 11/1 - objection overruled
Jill Morgenthaler (D) 11/5
Peter J. Roskam (R, Inc) 10/30

IL 7:
Danny K. Davis (D, Inc)
Robert Dallas (D) 11/2

IL 8:
Melissa Bean (D, Inc)
Randi Scheurer (D) 11/5
Jonathan Farnick (D) 11/5 - withdrawn 11/19
Steve Greenberg (R)
Kenneth W. Arnold (R)
Kirk Morris (R) 11/5
Iain Abernathy (Moderate Party) 11/5 - objection sustained

IL 9:
Janice D. Schakowski (D, Inc)
John Nocita (D) 11/5
Michael Benjamin Youmin (R) 11/1
Morris Shanfield (G) 11/5

IL 10:
Daniel J. Seals (D)
Jay K. Footlik (D)
Mark Steven Kirk (R, Inc)
David J. Kalbfleisch (G) 11/5 - objection sustained

IL 11:
Deborah "Debbie" Halvorson (D) 11/2
Timothy A. Baldermann (R) 11/5 - objection withdrawn
Jimmy Lee (R) 11/5
Terry Heenan (R) 11/5
Jason M. Wallace (G) 11/5

IL 12:
Jerry F. Costello (D, Inc)
Timmy Jay Richardson Jr (R) 11/5
Rodger W. Jennings (G) 11/5

IL 13:
Scott Harper (D)
Judy Biggert (R, Inc)
Sean O'Kean (R) 11/5
Steve Alesch (G) 11/5

IL 14:
John Laesch (D)
Jotham Stein (D)
Bill Foster (D)
Joe Serra (D) 11/5
Chris Lauzen (R)
Jim Oberweis (R)
Kevin Burns (R)
Michael J. Dilger (R) 11/1 - objection overruled

IL 15:
Steve Cox (D) 11/5
Timothy V. Johnson (R, Inc) 10/31

IL 16:
Robert G. Abboud (D)
Donald A. Manzullo (R, Inc)
Scott Summers (G) 11/5 - objection sustained

IL 17:
Phil Hare (D, Inc)

IL 18:
Dick Versace (D) 11/5 - withdrawn 12/21
John D. Morris (R)
Aaron Schock (R)
Jim McConoughay (R)

IL 19:
Joe McMenamin (D)
Daniel Davis (D)
Shirley Roney (D) 11/1 - objection sustained
John M. Shimkus (R, Inc)
Vic Roberts (G) 11/1

[muon2]

The first Green Party candidate for Congress officially filed today. Vic Roberts filed for the 19th CD. The 10% result for the Green Party in the 2006 Governor's race allows the Greens the same ballot access as the major parties.

[muon2]

Didn't Vic Roberts run as a Democrat before?

He did. He lost in the 2006 Democratic primary.

[muon2]

Filing for the primary in IL is now closed. The list above has been updated to show all the filers.

[muon2]

Real Clear Politics has a good summary of the races in IL:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[muon2]

Two more dates passed this week. Wednesday was the day to select ballot position for those candidates who filed on the first morning and were present by 8:00 am.

The other date that passed last week was the deadline to file objections to petitions. This is a time-honored tradition for many candidates who are looking to win before the election. There are many arcane rules about petition signatures and the form of the sheets. If enough signatures are disqualified, the candidate is off the ballot. So, campaigns will challenge opponents petitions if it looks like enough signatures can be bumped.

This year there are objections filed in IL-1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 14, 16, and 19. The objections will be heard over the next few weeks. In addition one objection in IL-3 led to the withdrawl of Ray Wardingly. The master list on the previous page has been updated to show the objections as well as the official ballot order within each party.

[muon2]

any chance of a house race in your future, muon?

LOL, Have you got a couple hundred friends who can pop for $2300 each?

[muon2]

On Thursday, Hastert endorsed Oberweis to replace him in IL-14. It wasn't a big surprise, but it did prompt Burns to state he would drop out, though he has not formally withdrawn. The cipher on the R side is Dilger who was sustained to stay on the ballot but will not appear publicly or answer calls from the press.

In IL-18 today, LaHood announced that he would not endorse in the race to replace him. He did ask that anyone clear the use of his name in literature which raises the strange case of the use of a phrase like "... running to replace Ray LaHood."

[muon2]

The remaining objections to candidates were ruled on yesterday, and I've updated my list on the preceding page accordingly. It is anticipated that Burns will formally withdraw from IL-14 (R) as he has already announced as much.

[muon2]

Illinois completed its primary yesterday. Here are the matchups, pending any independents who file later or parties that slate a candidate where none ran in the primary.

IL 1:
Bobby L. Rush (D, Inc)
Antoine Members (R)

IL 2:
Jesse L. Jackson Jr. (D, Inc)

IL 3:
Daniel William Lipinski (D, Inc)
Michael Hawkins (R)
Jerome Pohlen (G)

IL 4:
Luis V. Gutierrez (D, Inc)

IL 5:
Rahm Emanuel (D, Inc)
Alan Augustan (G)

IL 6:
Peter J. Roskam (R, Inc)
Jill Morgenthaler (D)

IL 7:
Danny K. Davis (D, Inc)

IL 8:
Melissa Bean (D, Inc)
Steve Greenberg (R)

IL 9:
Janice D. Schakowski (D, Inc)
Michael Benjamin Younan (R)
Morris Shanfield (G)

IL 10:
Mark Steven Kirk (R, Inc)
Daniel J. Seals (D)

IL 11 (Weller):
Timothy A. Baldermann (R)
Deborah "Debbie" Halvorson (D)
Jason M. Wallace (G)

IL 12:
Jerry F. Costello (D, Inc)
Timmy Jay Richardson Jr (R)
Rodger W. Jennings (G)

IL 13:
Judy Biggert (R, Inc)
Scott Harper (D)
Steve Alesch (G)

IL 14 (Hastert):
Jim Oberweis (R)
Bill Foster (D) (pending absentee and provisional count)

IL 15:
Timothy V. Johnson (R, Inc)
Steve Cox (D)

IL 16:
Donald A. Manzullo (R, Inc)
Robert G. Abboud (D)

IL 17:
Phil Hare (D, Inc)

IL 18 (LaHood):
Aaron Schock (R)

IL 19:
John M. Shimkus (R, Inc)
Daniel Davis (D)
Vic Roberts (G)

[muon2]

IL 18 (LaHood):
Aaron Schock (R)

Democrats not running a candidate for an open seat?

Their candidate dropped out a month or so ago.  They could replace him, but I doubt there's any chance.

I think there's quite a good chance that there will be a replacement. Activists in Peoria have reported on a number of possibilities since Versace dropped out. The Democrats have until early April to name someone to the Nov ballot.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A lot will be determined by the Mar 8 special election. It's a Saturday, and its going to take work to get the supporters out. Clearly the winner will have a boost in Nov.

[muon2]

So is Halvershon going to even have a fight in IL-11.  She gets at least 55%, imho.

Dan Seals showed quite a bit of strength in his primary victory, outperforming Obama by a good margin in CD10.  Kirk should be scared.

What's the verdict on CD14?  Are the crazy left-activists going to cost us another district and refuse to unite behind our nominee because their silly candidate barely lost the primary?

One thoughtful take on the D side of IL-14 is here.

[muon2]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

CQ politics has changed their rating of this race from tossup to Democratic favored in light of this news.

Tim Baldermann was not getting any traction so the race wasn't looking good for the GOP in Nov, esp. if Obama is on the ticket. Halvorson is a very strong candiadte for the Dems in fundraising and name recognition, but whose votes in the Senate are closely linked to Gov Blagojevich, who is very much not popular in the district. Halvorson's role in the Senate this spring can cut both ways for her, so the GOP may wait a bit to find a candidate who might exploit the connection to the Gov.

[muon2]

IL-14 is race to watch.  Democrat Foster is running ads excoriating Republican Oberweis on Iraq and the economy. Oberweis has responded by touting the usual Republican talking points, implying that Foster will "kill the economy" with his tax hikes. So far, Foster hasn't proposed a single tax increase -- but facts don't seem to matter in Congressional races.

This race also has national implications. McCain recently held a fundraiser for Oberweis that helped fill the House candidate's coffers to the tune of $250k. Foster is trying to tie Oberweis to McCain's controversial comments about an indefinite U.S military presence in Iraq. If Foster wins, Democrats will argue that McCain may actually be a liability for Republicans, even in districts that voted  for Bush by double-digit margins in 2004.

This race is very tough to poll. The election is the first on a Saturday in IL, and it's so soon after the general primary that many in the electorate are not tuned in to another election. Ground game turnout will be a big factor, as will early voting GOTV efforts.