will the US Economy go into recession in 2008?

[muon2]

It wouldn't surprise me if the US weren't already in recession. Technical measures of recession are usually 3 to 6 months behind. If there was a technical recession in 4Q 2007 or 1Q 2008 it won't be official until the spring or summer.

It also is not surprising since business cycles usually run about 6 years. Some are longer and some are shorter, but the last dip was in 2001. The cause that precipitates a recession is rarely forecast in advance, and differs with each cycle. Nonetheless, there's usually a proximate cause to start the downturn as the subprime crisis has provided this time.