Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET)

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Why is this worth more delegates than Delaware and Hawai'i? There are absolutely no real Democrats.

Uh, because "real Democrats" is a subjective term and can't be applied. Even just two years ago, WV had 2 Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, a Democratic House/Senate, and the vast majority of county offices controlled by Democrats.


Also:

Dots are gradient shifts; the larger mark is a county flip (Hampshire).

Two-way model:



Somewhere (maybe Potus still has it in his inbox), I made a GIF of WV partisan registration by county going back to 2006 or so. Very little movement in terms of flips over that time - I think 3 or 4 counties, tops.

In the last 18 months, WV has lost 30,000 Democrats and added 21,000 Republicans.

Currently:
D: 577,977
R: 374,931
O: 289,677

Yea, what the hell does this even mean?  

Tell moi, IceBreath...

I'm a registered Independent that would verbally smite anyone to call me a "Democrat".  Also consider the WV man who would berate one for calling them anything BUT a Democrat and stays registered as one...

Who is the "real Democrat"?  Is it me because I'm for abortion rights and WV man isn't?  Is that the issue?  Or gay marriage?  Or trade deals?   Is it about loyalty on the Presidential level or state level or local level, etc etc etc

It makes no sense.  I know this because it's an argument I used to make myself and I didn't have a good argument for it other than "ermergerd DINO" or "omg agrees with Dubya!".  

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Why is this worth more delegates than Delaware and Hawai'i? There are absolutely no real Democrats.

Uh, because "real Democrats" is a subjective term and can't be applied. Even just two years ago, WV had 2 Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, a Democratic House/Senate, and the vast majority of county offices controlled by Democrats.


Also:

Dots are gradient shifts; the larger mark is a county flip (Hampshire).

Two-way model:



Somewhere (maybe Potus still has it in his inbox), I made a GIF of WV partisan registration by county going back to 2006 or so. Very little movement in terms of flips over that time - I think 3 or 4 counties, tops.

In the last 18 months, WV has lost 30,000 Democrats and added 21,000 Republicans.

Currently:
D: 577,977
R: 374,931
O: 289,677

Yea, what the hell does this even mean?  

Tell moi, IceBreath...

I'm a registered Independent that would verbally smite anyone to call me a "Democrat".  Also consider the WV man who would berate one for calling them anything BUT a Democrat and stays registered as one...

Who is the "real Democrat"?  Is it me because I'm for abortion rights and WV man isn't?  Is that the issue?  Or gay marriage?  Or trade deals?   Is it about loyalty on the Presidential level or state level or local level, etc etc etc

It makes no sense.  I know this because it's an argument I used to make myself and I didn't have a good argument for it other than "ermergerd DINO" or "omg agrees with Dubya!".  

Don't be silly. You're a Democrat who is salty that your favored candidate lost the primary.  I guarantee you will be a Democrat again before the end of the decade.

How smug, and you didn't answer the question.

Not that you could, but if you asked people that know me it's long been my position that I'd rather be independent but NJ's primary system made it convenient to stay registered as one.  

Now, I've found enough reason to make it official.  Have you seen my avatar?  It's fairly green.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Delicious and SEXY projection from the news!

And I just made a wad o' cash by buying very low on PredictIt!

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

I feel like the protest vote will be way higher than that.

Also, great news! Thank you for the loss West Virginia!

Wonder if Sanders voters could've gotten away with celebrating the losses in the South?  Hmmm.....

(and please note these are not owning class, elitist whites in WV)

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

How smug, and you didn't answer the question.

Not that you could, but if you asked people that know me it's long been my position that I'd rather be independent but NJ's primary system made it convenient to stay registered as one.  

Now, I've found enough reason to make it official.  Have you seen my avatar?  It's fairly green.

If you read the blockquote, I wasn't even the person you were replying to. So I have no idea why you posed the question to me.

What is the reason you changed it, if not because Sanders lost?

Anyway, see you back on the D ship in a few years.

Nope.  It's why and how.  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/clinton-and-the-dnc-are-not-just-colluding----theyre-changing-the-rules-for-superdelegates_b_9876274.html

Simply, the validation of existing reservations with the party.  And, of course, my former party ditching economic progressivism in favor of turning back to the Clintons for the foreseeable future.  That's a biggie.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

I feel like the protest vote will be way higher than that.

Also, great news! Thank you for the loss West Virginia!

Wonder if Sanders voters could've gotten away with celebrating the losses in the South?  Hmmm.....

(and please note these are not owning class, elitist whites in WV)

Bernie himself diminished her wins in the South and wrote them off since "Democrats aren't going to win those states anyway," so using his same "logic," his win in West Virginia tonight is totally irrelevant because it does nothing considering 1) he isn't going to be the nominee and 2) Trump is going to outRomney the state in November. No reasonable Democrat thinks we have a chance there in 2016.

P.S. The media told us that West Virginia voters were dumb racist rednecks in 2008 when she won in a landslide. Is it still safe to call them that after tonight?

They are, in not so nice terms.  I just point the blame far away from them.  

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/wv/Dem

Sanders 57%
Clinton 38%

I feel like the protest vote will be way higher than that.

Also, great news! Thank you for the loss West Virginia!

Wonder if Sanders voters could've gotten away with celebrating the losses in the South?  Hmmm.....

(and please note these are not owning class, elitist whites in WV)

If you check Reddit, you'd see many people thinking their votes shouldn't count because they live in the South. So yes, they do "get away with that", and also get away with much worse.

And didn't you say you hoped SC would "get lynched" for voting for Hillary? Probably not in the best position to throw stones here.

My unfortunate comment was that casting a vote for Hillary was akin to self-lynching.  Edge-lording a little too hard that night.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

How smug, and you didn't answer the question.

Not that you could, but if you asked people that know me it's long been my position that I'd rather be independent but NJ's primary system made it convenient to stay registered as one.  

Now, I've found enough reason to make it official.  Have you seen my avatar?  It's fairly green.

If you read the blockquote, I wasn't even the person you were replying to. So I have no idea why you posed the question to me.

What is the reason you changed it, if not because Sanders lost?

Anyway, see you back on the D ship in a few years.

Nope.  It's why and how.  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/clinton-and-the-dnc-are-not-just-colluding----theyre-changing-the-rules-for-superdelegates_b_9876274.html

Simply, the validation of existing reservations with the party.  And, of course, my former party ditching economic progressivism in favor of turning back to the Clintons for the foreseeable future.  That's a biggie.

I've never read such a long article that stated absolutely nothing of value. Typical from Seth Abramson, H.A. Goodman's mini-me.

Hillary Clinton will win by hundreds of elected delegates and millions of votes. Superdelegates, as always, will be irrelevant. What exactly is the problem here?

Ah... of course you do not see.  My problem is that the party has a system that fancies itself democratic but allows party elites to declare their support before a vote is cast.  And that it was like... 500 to 10 out of the gates between Hillary Clinton and the most leftist Senator in Congress was startling to someone who, as a Democrat, was on the far left edge of the party.  Tells me that the party is far to the right of me.  

Not to mention I am and always have been the type to be drawn to the outsider.  It's very much an INSIDER party.  I do not fit, and will no longer try to.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

How smug, and you didn't answer the question.

Not that you could, but if you asked people that know me it's long been my position that I'd rather be independent but NJ's primary system made it convenient to stay registered as one.  

Now, I've found enough reason to make it official.  Have you seen my avatar?  It's fairly green.

If you read the blockquote, I wasn't even the person you were replying to. So I have no idea why you posed the question to me.

What is the reason you changed it, if not because Sanders lost?

Anyway, see you back on the D ship in a few years.

Nope.  It's why and how.  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/clinton-and-the-dnc-are-not-just-colluding----theyre-changing-the-rules-for-superdelegates_b_9876274.html

Simply, the validation of existing reservations with the party.  And, of course, my former party ditching economic progressivism in favor of turning back to the Clintons for the foreseeable future.  That's a biggie.

I've never read such a long article that stated absolutely nothing of value. Typical from Seth Abramson, H.A. Goodman's mini-me.

Hillary Clinton will win by hundreds of elected delegates and millions of votes. Superdelegates, as always, will be irrelevant. What exactly is the problem here?

Ah... of course you do not see.  My problem is that the party has a system that fancies itself democratic but allows party elites to declare their support before a vote is cast.  And that it was like... 500 to 10 out of the gates between Hillary Clinton and the most leftist Senator in Congress was startling to someone who, as a Democrat, was on the far left edge of the party.  Tells me that the party is far to the right of me.  

In all fairness...Seth Abramson is a dumbass. I wrote a 2,500-word post debunking every single claim he made in his little "Why Bernie Sanders Is Winning the Democratic Primary" piece. Everything I've seen from him since is either factually inaccurate or pie-in-the-sky subjective commentary. He's a literature professor: not a political scientist,consultant or anything relevant to this broader topic.

I'm not really endorsing all of the man's views, just the major point of that article, being that the super-delegates lined up immediately... and if you use the "Sanders is an independent" thing, there were several actual Dems in the race and she'd basically had all of them already.