Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[ChrisFromNJ]

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 53
McCain 43

LV (traditional)
Obama 51
McCain 45

which one is better?

If you think the turnout models in 2004 and previous elections will be the same in this election, use the traditional model. If you think turnout models will be different, and there will be plenty of new voters, then use the new model.

[ChrisFromNJ]

My guess is that the 2nd likely voter model has the party identification as 37-37 D-R like in 2004.

That won't be the case this election.

[ChrisFromNJ]

My guess is that the 2nd likely voter model has the party identification as 37-37 D-R like in 2004.

That won't be the case this election.

The prophet ChrisFromNJ speaks again.

We saw the sme claims here for years ago.  Remember how all the new voters swung FL to Kerry.

Deja Vu from 2004. The youth vote is gonna come out in record numbers and shatter all records in  turnout.

And yet the day after Bush was reelected.. it's was clear that the youth vote just didn't show.

The cult of the youth voter remains, once again, the most absurd, bogus, childish, romantic and misguided joke of liberal American politics.

Scoreboard.

You might want to check it out.

Barack Obama leads in the polls. That wasn't the case in 2004.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Drudge has the headline "SHOCK POLL: OBAMA 49 McCAIN 47"

Oh Drudge... lol.

Why do left wingers visit that hack's site?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Drudge has the headline "SHOCK POLL: OBAMA 49 McCAIN 47"

Oh Drudge... lol.

He's right, so far as he goes.  LOL.

He's right only if you cherry pick data. Typical Drudge.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Like I said, "unless you are one of us and follow the polls closely."  You know that there is a difference, but it is very likely that most people won't.

You're being intellectually dishonest. YOU know the difference.

[ChrisFromNJ]

This is absurd. These daily stock market gains or losses have no impact on the presidential race.

[ChrisFromNJ]

This is absurd. These daily stock market gains or losses have no impact on the stock market!

Well that made zero sense.

You know what I meant.

I edited it.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Gallup
RV's
Obama 52%(nc)
McCain 41%(-1)

LV's Trad
Obama 50%(+1)
McCain 45%(-1)

LV's Expanded
Obama 52%(+1)
McCain 43%(-1)

GALLUP SHOCK: OBAMA UP 5

[ChrisFromNJ]

10/21/08

RV

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 41 (nc)

LV expanded

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 42 (-1)

LV traditional

Obama 51 (+1)
McCain 44 (-1)

GALLUP SHOCK: OBAMA UP 7

[ChrisFromNJ]

GALLUP SHOCK: OBAMA UP 10 in Likely Voters



http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

[ChrisFromNJ]

Wow, did not expect the TRADITIONAL model to be showing this sort of result.

wow.

Have we actually gotten a good explanation on how the Traditional Model differs from the other models?