Vatican City 2013 papal election

[Platypus]

The Italians are pretty insistent that it's their 'turn'. I can't remember which one is the archbishop of Milan, but it'll be him.

[Platypus]

I thought it was a 'quick, elect Azinze before he dies so we can have an African for a couple of years to look inclusive but not actually change anything' sign, actually.

[Platypus]

Azinze for three of four years, and then a young Italian, or straight to the young Italian?

I think the idea of a latin american pope is possible, but north american unlikely.

[Platypus]

If Pell gets it, I don't know if I'd be proud or terrified

[Platypus]

Sandri, Scherer, Bagnasco, Erdo, Turkson, Bertone, Arinze, Ouellet, Scola, Ravasi, Schornborn, the Congolese guy, Marin, Sarah, Bergoglio. That's my ranking at this point, with the top three the true contenders.

Gut feeling, but Sandri feels 'right'.

[Platypus]

Still 'feeling' Sandri. No idea why.

[Platypus]

GAH lost a massive post. Will try and repeat it now.

[Platypus]

It'dll be a massive surprise if the new Pope is from the US, it'll be a huge shock if it's Dolan.

It seems like the next Pope needs to tick five boxes:

1. Conservative, but not reactionary. They ought to be able to see the grey, but advocate the white and confront the black, so to speak. Someone with deep beliefs in line with the conservative wing of the church, but not unthinkingly. Ideally, not taintyed by scandal based on not communicating these views well, but certainly someone who has conservative views and is prepared to express them, and does so in a way that is both clear and not offensively harsh.

2. (Relatively) young and healthy. Anyone over 72 is a non-starter. Preferably someone without significant helath issues in their past, and certainly none currently unwell.

3. A fluent Italian speaker, with strong competence in English and Spanish, and ideally German too. Can probably survive without great English or Spanish if they're functional, but the Italian is essential.

4. Both pastoral and administrative experience. They don't need to be a great showman at all, but they do need to have the experience of talking to the pews, and the ideally the lives of the general clergy. The administrative strength is ideally linked with the curia, but strong governance of a large Archbishopric is probably sufficient. One or the other isn't likely to cut it unless the other factors are all met, and met well. There's no real need for a deep theologian, as long as they understand the theologians around them.l

5. Either a European (read: Italian) with significant global networks or, more likely, from outside Europe but with very (very) strong Vatican connections. Not likely to be a non-Italian if they're prepared to not go out on a limb and pick a  European, and the best non-Euro candidates need to have links with the Euro bloc.

(The original write-up was better, but the points are basically the same. I can't see anyone who fits each category perfectly, but unless politics plays a major part in terms of the lesser roles, the cardinal who meets these criteria most closely would be the most likely winner).

[Platypus]

Maybe in Sri Lanka? Colombia? Nicaragua? Spain? Lebanon? Philippines? Ireland/N. Ireland?

But yeah, strikes me as highly improbable.

[Platypus]

So after all that...we're back to an Italian in his 60s?

[Platypus]

If you're up for a laugh, read up on the history between the new pope and the kirchners, then watch her speech 'welcoming' the news.

[Platypus]

It'dll be a massive surprise if the new Pope is from the US, it'll be a huge shock if it's Dolan.

It seems like the next Pope needs to tick five boxes:

1. Conservative, but not reactionary. They ought to be able to see the grey, but advocate the white and confront the black, so to speak. Someone with deep beliefs in line with the conservative wing of the church, but not unthinkingly. Ideally, not taintyed by scandal based on not communicating these views well, but certainly someone who has conservative views and is prepared to express them, and does so in a way that is both clear and not offensively harsh.

I think Francis gets a yes to this.

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But obviously a no to this. Healthy enough, but rather older than I thought possible.

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How good is his english? but generally a yes for this.

[qupte]
4. Both pastoral and administrative experience. They don't need to be a great showman at all, but they do need to have the experience of talking to the pews, and the ideally the lives of the general clergy. The administrative strength is ideally linked with the curia, but strong governance of a large Archbishopric is probably sufficient. One or the other isn't likely to cut it unless the other factors are all met, and met well. There's no real need for a deep theologian, as long as they understand the theologians around them.l
[/quote]

Meets this well.

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A yes here as well.

[Platypus]

Yeah, I wouldn't say it's scandalous. Disappointing, sure, but not enough to make the average Catholic's faith in the man or the church to be irreparably affected.