Incumbents have won 13 of the last 18 elections (which goes back to 1900). Losers:
1. William Howard Taft …
2. Herbert Hoover …
3. Gerald Ford …
4. Jimmy Carter …
5. George H. W. Bush …
This doesn't count for the first two. But with #s 3-5, each had an approval rating below 45 percent. Since pollings began around World War II, no party has been able to hold the White House if the incumbent party's figure (around election time) had a rating below that number 45. You can add George W. Bush to this; his numbers hovered between the mid-20s and -30s for his last two years in office.
Poll
