I had an earlier response to the Senate’s health-care insurance bill. But it didn’t answer the question to this thread.
I’m among those who think Election 2008 was a realignment election which will result in the Republicans getting the short end of the stick for a majority of a 10-elections cycle.
Here is a sample idea of what could transpire in Election 2012.
States in red are Republican; those in blue are Democratic. The ones in yellow are the ones I believe will pose the potential to flip in a tide that sees a landslide—or massive landslide—of a re-election for 44th president of the United States Barack Obama [D-Illinois].
The thing is this: How much would [Obama’s] 2008 margin of 7.25% (won over losing GOP challenger John McCain of Arizona) increase against that of his Republican opponent in 2012? A 3-percent gain (the case with re-elections of 42nd president Bill Clinton, in 1996, and 43rd president George W. Bush, in 2004) is modest enough for a few states do some color trading. (For this exercise, I’m not yellowing the likes of Indiana or North Carolina; I’m keeping them blue. But I am coloring Missouri and Montana—both of which McCain held by less than 3 points—blue. That’s because these two states—plus, come to think of it, Georgia—are among the 22 in McCain’s column in which it was Obama who won the female vote. McCain held Ga. by approximately 5.2%) If there turns out to be a significant increase (40th president Ronald Reagan essentially doubled his 1984 margin over that of his first election’s, from 1980) … I’d say that at least ten states are on the horizon to flip. (Under those circumstances: plenty above 400 electoral votes and, roughly, 40 states will have been carried.)
Reminder: For me, this is an exercise (not my prediction)!
