D+10… D+7… D+3… D+1… R+1… R+3… R+7… R+10… I will make my own maps.
I'm refraining from making any maps.
Assuming you're talking margins, rather than shifts, I'll save you some trouble. Anything less than Obama's national 7.26%, from 2008, points to a flip of the White House. An 8- to 10-point R shift. At best, for the Republicans, an outcome of R+3.
If result is R+3, every 2008 Democratic pickup flips back to the 2012 Republican column. But add New Hampshire as well. Electoral College, for a prevailing R challenger, would (just like 2000/2004 Bush) fall under 300.
If result is Obama re-elected with margin shifts between D+2.51% and D+5.00%, flip Indiana and Nebraska #02. Counter with pickups of Georgia, Missouri, and Montana. Electoral College: 377.
If result is a 2012 re-election of Obama essentially doubling his 2008 margin of 7.26%, in part because the R challenger was a bomb, we'll see the country's first 400-plus blowout in the Electoral Ceollge since the ass-kickings from R's in the 1970s and 1980s. No D pickups from 2008 flip back to the R's. Along with 2012 D pickups of Ga., Mo., and Mont. are McCain-held-single-digit states (Arizona, South Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska #01). If the R challenger is reduced from McCain's 45.66% down to, say, 39%/40%/41% of the U.S. Popular Vote, Texas barely flips as well. Then no more than three states, having carried for McCain at 15% (or more) also flip (my guess: all of Nebraska and Kansas; I'm more confident with them over a Kentucky/Tennessee or Arkansas/Louisiana pair). Electoral College in the upper-400s.
