Swing Voters and Elastic States

[DS0816]

The "blue firewall" states, as well as New Hampshire, are there for the Democrats for 246 electoral votes. Add to them New Mexico, which doesn't look like a bellwether state any longer (or, if it still is, it's tilted strongly Democratic with a realigning presidential period favoring the party in which N.M. carries every time with margins exceeding the national number). Add to this Nevada, another long-running bellwether state which has disagreed just once with N.M. (in 2000, with the split outcomes of Electoral College-vs.-U.S. Popular Vote winners) and boasts a spread typically between three to five points from its companion. Add to these Iowa, which tends to be no greater than three points in spread from the popular-vote margin and, along with that, has had a blue tilt since 1984.

That's already 263 electoral votes.

Under these circumstances, the Republicans have no choice but to win bellwethers Florida and Ohio (mathematically there is no other option) along with newly established ones Virginia and Colorado. With the latter, the GOP hasn't won a statewide race in this mountain west state since 2004. Add to this that North Carolina is trending away from the Republicans and toward the edges of Competitive/Bellwether. Then factor in Arizona and Georgia, states where Barack Obama won the female vote in at least one of his two elections. (And in 2008, there was no gender-voting gap in Ariz. That year's female voters in Ga. topped the percentages of the official Democratic pickup states Fla., Ohio, and Va.) If Hillary Clinton becomes the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, and the result is a third consecutive cycle victory for Team Blue, discussion will be had about the six states that used to back Team Blue in their prevailing elections: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

There is Indiana, which has proven it is not shying away from splitting tickets and is winnable. And Montana, taken for granted because of its measly three electoral votes, is also underestimated. (Another state for which Obama won the female vote in at least one of his two elections.)

Coming up: Texas and South Carolina [?] !