Is Oregon now more "winnable" than New Mexico for the GOP

[DS0816]

I won't answer the poll.

New Mexico very possibly having moved from longtime bellwether to partisan Democratic, and having produced substantially deep-blue margins in the 2008 Democratic pickup and 2012 Democratic hold elections—in which it bolstered even better numbers in both cycles than Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—was incredible. Each of those three other states haven't been carried by the GOP since after the 1980s (with Minnesota, not since 1972, making 2012 ten elections in a row for Team Blue).

This development in New Mexico—which boasts the best historical presidential record of any state in the union (the only one over 90 percent having carried for all winners since its first participation back in 1912)—does not cause me to worry about the margins in Oregon (which also hasn't colored red since after the 1980s).

[DS0816]

New Mexico first voted in 1912. Carried for all presidential winners except 1976 Jimmy Carter and 2000 George W. Bush. In 2000, it was narrowly Democratic held by Al Gore. N.M. and Iowa were the only two states which carried for the popular-vote winners of the 2000 and 2004 cycles. But the state voted excessively in margins support for Democrat Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012. And he carried the male, along with the female, vote in 2012 N.M. while numerous "Blue Firewall" states could not say the same.

Looking at elections won from 1912 to 2012, and the two parties, along with presidential winners with their base in the "north" or "south," N.M. has been more with those winners whose base states came from the "north." (Same goes, of course, with Oregon.)

Strictly comparing the 26 election cycles of participation for New Mexico to that of the same time-frame's worth of those from Oregon: The two have carried the same in all but five: 1916, 1948, 1960, 1988, and 2004. And 21 of those 26 cycles accounts for 80 percent agreement (4 of every 5 election cycles) between the two states.

New Mexico, and not Oregon, is the long-running, reputable bellwether. But the two sure do agree with each other a lot.