Let's do some math regarding the white vote in Pennsylvania:2004 PENNSYLVANIA• U.S. President: George W. Bush 48.42% | John Kerry 50.92% (D+2.50)
• Whites (82): George W. Bush 54% | John Kerry 45% (R+9)
• Percentages: George W. Bush 44.28% | John Kerry 36.90% (R+7.38)
• Dependency on Whites: George W. Bush 91.44% | John Kerry 72.46%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 18.98 (126%)
2008 PENNSYLVANIA• U.S. President: John McCain 44.15% | Barack Obama 54.47% (D+10.32)
• Whites (81): John McCain 51% | Barack Obama 48% (R+3)
• Percentages: John McCain 41.31% | Barack Obama 38.88% (R+2.43)
• Dependency on Whites: John McCain 93.56% | Barack Obama 71.37%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 22.19 (131%)
• Shift in Dependency on Whites (from 2004): Republican + 3.21
• Shift in Share of White Vote: –01 (98.78%, from 2004)
2012 PENNSYLVANIA• U.S. President: Mitt Romney 46.58% | Barack Obama 51.96% (D+5.38)
• Whites (78): Mitt Romney 57% | Barack Obama 42% (R+15)
• Percentages: Mitt Romney 44.46% | Barack Obama 32.76% (R+11.70)
• Dependency on Whites: Mitt Romney 95.44% | Barack Obama 63.04%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 32.40 (151%)
• Shift in Dependency on Whites (from 2008): Republican + 10.21
• Shift in Share of White Vote: –03 (96.29%, from 2008)
If the 2016 state exit polls were to result in a match from 2012, in Pennsylvania, here is an estimate:
2016 PENNSYLANIA• U.S. President: Republican 45.81% | Democrat 52.73% (D+6.92; Shift: D+1.54)
• Whites (76): Republican 57% | Democrat 42% (R+15)
• Blacks (13): Republican 06% | Democrat 93% (D+87)
• Hispanics (08): Republican 18% | Democrat 80% (D+62)
• Asian (01): Republican xx% | Democrat xx%
• Percentages (Whites): Republican 43.32% | Democrat 31.92% (R+11.40; Shift: D+0.30)
• Percentages (Blacks): Republican 00.78% | Democrat 12.09% (D+11.31; Shift: N.A.)
• Percentages (Hispanics): Republican 01.44% | Democrat 06.40% (D+4.96; Shift: D+1.24)
• Asian (01): Republican xx% | Democrat xx%
• Other (01): Republican xx% | Democrat xx%
• Dependency on Whites: Republican 94.56% | Democrat 60.53%
• Dependency Margin for Whites: Republican + 34.03 (156%)
• Shift in Dependency on Whites (from 2012): Republican + 1.63
• Shift in Share of White Vote: –02 (97.43%, from 2012)
Sources: •
How Barack Obama Won: A State-by-State Guide to the Historic 2008 Presidential Election, by Chuck Todd and Sheldon Gawiser (both from
NBC News), page 130
• @
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/pennsylvania/president/#.VWF6GHLJCUk• @
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/is-doubling-down-on-white-voters-a-viable-strategy-for-the-republican-party/
