538 Model Megathread

[DS0816]

His model of Hillary Clinton winning by +7.3, over Donald Trump, yields a few states which have Democratic tilts underperforming: Colorado and Iowa, to name two, but also New Hampshire and Nevada. None of those four were less than +1.5 above for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012.

The state of Washington is at +14 when I would expect it to be +16 or +17.

Details like that.

But, the most noticeable thing is that Donald Trump would apparently carry no state by greater than the +23 as indicated with Wyoming. That state, in 2012, was +41.

I think people are underestimating how an electoral map can really move. If these numbers really shifted Democratic to such levels, we're not going to see only one or two states flip from 2012 Republican to 2016 Democratic. We're going to see at least a half-dozen states do that.

[DS0816]

The people who underestimated Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries, and yet they make their living in politics (like as pundits), should not be forgiven.

ABC News's Matthew Dowd was an exception. How many more? (Kind of rhetorical. I'm not that interested.)

[DS0816]

Nate Silver predicts Trump will never win the Republican nomination!

Didn’t Nate Silver throw a fit in May when Donald Trump had some poll leads over Hillary Clinton—and said those polls were too far out from the general election, come November, and must be dismissed?