This race is a tossup. (user search)
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June 09, 2024, 10:38:51 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  This race is a tossup. (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: 50 day poll
#1
True
 
#2
False, Biden is more likely to win
 
#3
False, Trump is more likely to win
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 107

Author Topic: This race is a tossup.  (Read 1080 times)
DS0816
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,187
« on: May 06, 2024, 11:05:13 AM »

If you feel one of the two is clearly more likely to win, even if you aren't too sure, vote false.
If you think it's basically a tossup vote true.

This poll could easily be criticized, but I don't think it clear at all as to which candidate will win, so I vote true.

It could remain close up to election day and even longer.

Edit: I screwed up the other poll, so I re-did it.

Part of this depends on context.

If one wants to color a map which some states shown in yellow…Election 2024 is a “Tossup”.

If one wants to figure out which of these two major U.S. political parties is likely to win with each level of U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House…to conclude Election 2024 is a  “Tossup” is not realistic.
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DS0816
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,187
« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2024, 05:17:22 PM »

I think Biden is around a 60-40 favorite



Not with a job-approval rating which consistently struggles for 40 percent.

April 26, 2024—Gallup reports 38.7 percent.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/644252/biden-13th-quarter-approval-average-lowest-historically.aspx
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