Ok, it's the 2012 election.
A huge hurricane hits Texas and Oklahoma, demolishing the states. Obama works very hard to rebuild the states. It is a success. Because of this, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana start to support Obama. When another hurricane hits those states, Obama does just as he did with OK and TX.
Vote shifts/swings in Obama's/Democrats' direction. This string of natural disasters will awaken some residents of those states to the reality of the incompetence of 43rd president George W. Bush (particularly with 2005
Hurricane Katrina, in New Orleans, Louisiana).
Before offering anything further, a word about me: I live in Michigan. In your scenario, the Wolverine State has the mildest damage and the area affected is in the upper peninsula. (I'm in the southeast; the Detroit market which will be entirely untouched).I can't produce a map (or don't know how; unlike with the past Election 2008 season). Basically it sounds like Barack Obama takes care of Iowa. But nothing was written of the other states, so I'll assume Obama takes care of them as well. The Republican courts Appalachians (without success).
Here's what I'll say: All 2008 states Barack Obama carried see their margins increase.
Alaska, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming carry for the Republican challenger (but with none of them surpassing a 10-point margin; 45 and over crowd make sure of that; but don't be ungrateful: after all they shifted/swung Democratic.
Again). Oklahoma doesn't give a **** (see comment, below).
Some Highlights… • In the plains and Texas, there is a dramatic shift/swing that, on average, swings above average of the U.S. popular vote of 12.5 more points in Obama's direction. (The Lone Star State is the
closest.)
• Arkansas and Louisiana don't ever like to disagree in a presidential election, as they did in 1964; so the two shift/swing dramatically but insist that they once again agree on the result.
• Oklahoma is to Election 2012 what La. was to Election 2008. (It shifts five points more for the GOP.)
• Alabama and Mississippi are smarter and more receptive to Obama. But Miss. was better for 2008 Obama and always feels mystified whether Ala. would be willing to collapse the 20-plus-point margin by which John McCain carried the state in 2008. (No one holds their breath anticipating the flip.)
• Some notoriously Democratic states cannot swing to the national average because they went high enough in Election 2008: Massachusetts and Hawaii, to name two.
• The 44th president of the United States wins re-election, in Election 2012, with 66 percent of the vote and a minimum 450 electoral votes. But the good news is that Missouri, which used to be
The Bellwether of the Nation and got it shamefully wrong in Election 2008 (because it shifted/swung 7.1 of its 7.2-point margin, from 2004, and failed to back Obama by 3,900-plus votes and -.1 margin), swings to, and carries for, Obama. (In other words, in Election 2012, Mo. gets back into the habit of siding with the winning candidate as we normally expect it to do.)
Now I need some Aspirin!
