NH-02: Kuster retiring

[Brother Jonathan]

I get the sense no one saw this coming. Democrats shouldn't have a problem finding a strong candidate though. Credit to Sawx for the suggestion elsewhere, but Morse would be smart to run here instead of for Governor, since the primary field for the GOP is sparse at this point and he'd have an alright shot at winning the seat.

[Brother Jonathan]

I’m interested to see which Democrats decide to run. I wonder if it’ll be a crowded field, or if DCCC/national Dems will try to clear the field (given that this is a semi-competitive seat).

Interesting idea to have Chuck Morse run here instead. Does he live in the district? Not that that’s a requirement, but just curious.

Yes, in Salem I believe.

https://twitter.com/edewittnh/status/1772990302329933991?s=46&t=1EMP6L5xgxnb...

For Dems, a lot of early rumors but we will see. They have no shortage of choices but I will be interested to see if this becomes a fight with a few big names in it.

[Brother Jonathan]

Hopefully Rs nominate a good candidate. Who is running for the GOP nomination?

At the present moment, a J6 attendee and a former Libertarian politician originally from Colorado, but I imagine at least one, more credible candidate may get in now that the seat is open. Sawx suggested State Senator Dan Innis, which I could see.

Also, just as a general note, NH-02 Republicans have a bad track record when it comes to picking candidates. So while Innis or someone else may be fine, its also generally never a bad bet that the GOP primary base here will go with the less electable, more red-meat candidate.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1773379707729305963

Of note here too that Van Ostern had previously worked for Kuster, and I believe was her campaign manager at some point.

[Brother Jonathan]

Apparently the prevailing theory is that the NHGOP is pushing its executive director, Joe Sweeney, to run. Sweeney has done a great job walking the tightrope between the extreme and the establishment and has been mentioned as a rising star for a while.

He's definitely an intriguing candidate. Time will tell if he's able to put it together electorally.

A Burns v. Sweeney primary (with some other odds and ends candidates) seems distinctly possible, in which case I think Sweeney would be slightly favored thanks to his balancing act and not being George Hansel (who, in the end, is just too moderate for the NH-02 GOP primary electorate at this point).

Burns has not announced or anything but he seems interested and has been making noise (which is about all he's good for anyway). Wouldn't be surprised if he went for it again. 

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1773014911716614541

Eh, the impact of this is pretty overstated.

Packing a Dem seat / carving out a reliably red seat isn't really feasible in NH anyways, especially not with just two districts.

Unless the districts were fundamentally reconfigured, and drawn in a very ugly, county-splitting manner (which would run counter to several-decades-long NH redistricting tradition), the two districts wouldn't vote all that far apart, and on the whole the more conservative seat wouldn't be more than tilt R, maybe.

It is possible to draw a seat that votes GOP pretty consistently, but yeah it would be horrendously ugly and the margins would be nothing major (i.e. 50-48 McCain in 2008). I would think they might make some minor tweaks, but they probably still would have thought they had a shot at the 2nd.

[Brother Jonathan]

Word for NH Journal (a conservative publication) is that Burns will be entering the race. He's probably the favorite to be the nominee at this point.

https://nhjournal.com/republicans-burns-hamlen-expected-to-enter-cd2-race-this-week/

[Brother Jonathan]

Gatsas retiring from the Executive Council has prompted Burns to run for that seat instead, which opens up the GOP field to the extent that Burns was clogging it (which, I mean, he's not exactly a titan but he did win the primary once I guess). At this point, I'm just waiting to see if Sweeney runs. He probably stands little chance in the general, but he is something of a rising star and if he runs Republicans will take it more seriously and it will be his first encounter with a lot of voters outside of Salem.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1779496583593119989

From a few days ago, but Becky Whitley is also in. CVO is still clearly favored, but Whitley is a serious candidate he won't be able to just brush off.