Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[NOVA Green]

It's all right and this is typical for vote-by-mail states where the ballots that are counted are the first ones through the mail box.

Bernie was only winning Oregon by 5% at the end of election night and is now a 15% win, although it took a few days (and even weeks).

Basically in Cali, those that vote early with VbM are heavily older voters (55+) and higher-income voters, and a huge chunk of voters do it at the last minute (Including putting a stamp on your mail in ballot) or voting directly from voting machines.

Keep Calm and Carry On.

It's over man. We were too cautious. She will win in places we weren't even expecting.

Maybe.... maps looks ugly now based upon early votes, and either voter turnout is higher and early votes vs late votes is going to split dramatically based upon '08 total turnout in key places like the Bay Area or.... is going to be a total wipeout once SoCal starts to kick in.

[NOVA Green]

Does anyone else find it hilarious that TRUMP has more votes than BERNIE?

Does anyone find it hilarious that Trump has fewer votes than Bernie and Hillary in the wealthiest and most "White" city in Oregon called Lake Oswego?  Precinct results were just posted yesterday and looks like Trump is going to be the latest Republican GE candidate to collapse in  extremely wealthy suburbs that used to make the state competitive for the Republican party with <55% of the Republican Vote.... Sigh...

[NOVA Green]

Ok... not saying that Sanders will win Cali, but honestly there is a major over reaction to early VbM results  that were always expected to overwhelmingly favor Hillary.

For example early votes show Hillary winning Marin 63-36 and Sonoma 55-44 and SF 37-62, not even to speak elsewhere in the state.

These numbers are definitely impressive with early "vote-banking" and it looks like there is a decent chance that Hillary will win the state, but I ask those of you that are not residents of West Coast and heavily VbM states to automatically assume that the initial results that we are seeing is anywhere close to the final results.

[NOVA Green]

Ok... not saying that Sanders will win Cali, but honestly there is a major over reaction to early VbM results  that were always expected to overwhelmingly favor Hillary.

For example early votes show Hillary winning Marin 63-36 and Sonoma 55-44 and SF 37-62, not even to speak elsewhere in the state.

These numbers are definitely impressive with early "vote-banking" and it looks like there is a decent chance that Hillary will win the state, but I ask those of you that are not residents of West Coast and heavily VbM states to automatically assume that the initial results that we are seeing is anywhere close to the final results.

I think you're right to a point - but I think you're over-thinking that Sanders can even get close at this stage.

Well, you are quite possibly correct considering the Early Vote (EV) lead in the Bay Area and obviously 65-35 early leads in Santa Clara and Contra Costa, not even to speak of SF and Marin county don't appear that margins can be overcome.

In SoCal we really have very little idea of numbers in LA County, as well as OC and SD county and the early vote in the Inland Empire is heavily dominated by older, wealthier voter.

Like I said earlier on another thread, Bernie needs to win the Bay Area by larger margins than Clinton in '08, basically tie in Sacramento, do very well in rural and small town NorCal, and basically eke out a small margin in SD/OC, while keeping Clinton margins down in LA County and the Inland Empire in order to win narrowly.

Even with the early votes numbers, not seeing this being a very easy scenario....

[NOVA Green]

CA has been stuck at 33% reporting for a while now. Is this really all we're getting tonight? That's annoying.

Now idea, but times like this makes really hate vote by mail elections, regardless of how much it makes it easier for voters to actually vote. Not a big fan of states not counting votes for days and weeks....

[NOVA Green]

The way in which California counts their votes is a disgrace to the country.  It's unacceptable that a significant number of votes will still be trickling in for days to come.  Why can they not count the votes on the night of the election?  It has never obviously had a big effect on the Presidential races because California is never close, but still, it's ridiculous.

Totally agreed... I live on the West Coast, and I very much doubt we will get 50% in before I go to bed, and they will start counting again tomorrow and margins will narrow significantly. Then I will go to bed tomorrow night, and we will have 55-58% of the results in, even though election officials have no idea of how many votes are yet to be counted, etc....

Election night in Oregon was up 6% and then it took almost was week before it was a 10% margin and then now a 15% margin.

Vote by Mail totally sucks when it comes to actually counting election votes, especially when you have states that allow mail-in-ballots to be counted days after the election so long as they are received and postmarked by the deadline.

[NOVA Green]

The way in which California counts their votes is a disgrace to the country.  It's unacceptable that a significant number of votes will still be trickling in for days to come.  Why can they not count the votes on the night of the election?  It has never obviously had a big effect on the Presidential races because California is never close, but still, it's ridiculous.

Totally agreed... I live on the West Coast, and I very much doubt we will get 50% in before I go to bed, and they will start counting again tomorrow and margins will narrow significantly. Then I will go to bed tomorrow night, and we will have 55-58% of the results in, even though election officials have no idea of how many votes are yet to be counted, etc....

Election night in Oregon was up 6% and then it took almost was week before it was a 10% margin and then now a 15% margin.

Vote by Mail totally sucks when it comes to actually counting election votes, especially when you have states that allow mail-in-ballots to be counted days after the election so long as they are received and postmarked by the deadline.

I'm totally against vote-by-mail to begin with, but if they're going to have it, at least have the cutoff date be like 5 days before the election or something.  If you don't have it in the mail 5 days before the election you have to vote in person.  It's ridiculous that so many people likely just mailed their ballots yesterday.

Well in Oregon, we can always drop our ballots in one of the boxes located conveniently around and so long as it is before poll closing time on election day (8 PM PST) or the ballot is received by election day through the US Mail, the votes will be counted.

Personally, I think that California and Washington State make the system a bit too convoluted and actually depress overall voter turnout, even though Oregon has a closed primary voters tend to switch party registration 30 days before the election if they are Indies and want to vote Dem or Rep for the primaries....

Still VbM totally blows chunks when it comes to actual vote counting, and especially when there are competitive statewide or local elections....

[NOVA Green]

Well point is that toplines will say Clinton wins Cali 60-40 based mainly upon early votes and the reality is that Clinton will win, but by significantly smaller margins, but it will take several days to get close to what the final results are, and likely a week before we can actually discern final margins county-by county.

Regardless--- congrats to Hillary on a big win in Cali and unless we see overwhelming shifts over the next week, it should end up at a minimum +5 Clinton victory in Cali, and quite possibly closer to +10 Clinton and '08 numbers.

[NOVA Green]

Most of the Montana vote left is urban - Billings, Great Falls, Helena, and Missoula primarily. Bernie should win it.

Not sure if some have mentioned it or not but San Francisco has voted for Clinton. Nearly all its precincts are in and Clinton leads 56-44.

"Precincts" are different in vote by mail states.... we don't count by precinct until final results are certified, so instead this is used as an estimation of the predicted  remaining outstang vote.

Is weird I know....

[NOVA Green]

Is San Francisco really nearly all in? Hillary is winning it by double digits...

Not unless somehow total votes dropped from 250k in '08 to 150k in '16.

[NOVA Green]

Heh, Santa Cruz county flipped to Sanders. My husband's hometown. Might be the only Bay Area county to go to him at this point...

Naah... less than 50% of the vote is in and remaining votes should break heavily for Bernie in the Bay.

Marin and SF will likely flip, and quite possibly Alemeda once all the votes are counted....

[NOVA Green]

Heh, Santa Cruz county flipped to Sanders. My husband's hometown. Might be the only Bay Area county to go to him at this point...

Naah... less than 50% of the vote is in and remaining votes should break heavily for Bernie in the Bay.

Marin and SF will likely flip, and quite possibly Alemeda once all the votes are counted....

Are there still votes that come in after all the precincts are reported? Because SF and Marin are fully done and they both went to Clinton.

Like I have said multiple times before, there is no such thing as "precincts" when it comes to vote-by-mail states. Instead state election officials use this as a rough estimate of outstanding percentage of total votes remaining, when the reality is nobody has any idea how many outstanding votes are out there, especially in states like Washington and California that allow votes to be counted that are mailed on election day.... totally different concept from when I first got into looking at "precinct returns" 20 years ago....

[NOVA Green]

Clinton finishes at 55.8% in CA.

Nah, it'll probably settle in around a 10 point margin.

So NBC is estimating there's 31% of the vote remaining, which if it splits 50-50 would be a 10 point margin, and if it splits 55-45 Bernie would be more like a 7.5% margin.

[NOVA Green]

Santa Clara County now has prelim precinct results online.

So it looks like one of the major reasons for Hillary's dramatic performance in Santa Clara County, based upon the same-day and early votes posted earlier, was a HUGE swing in wealthier areas between '08 and '16.

She won Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos, Palo Alto, and Saratoga by over 2:1 margins, with the exception of the latter all cities carried by Obama in '08 (and Palo Alto by 20 points, including the four precincts located at Stanford 555-903 or 38-62%!) as well as well as a 60-40 win in Mtn View (Also an Obama '08 City) and also an improvement in Cupertino for a 60-40 win.

Interestingly, San Jose actually marginaly swung away from Hillary '08 numbers, as well as Santa Clara, and Bernie's best four cities (Campbell 45%, Santa Clara 43%, Sunnyvale 42%, San Jose 40%) were actually some of Obama's worst.

It will be interesting to see how these numbers change over the next week, with an estimated 60k ballots outstanding...

[NOVA Green]

Also, for any map geeks out there, here's a link to a cool precinct map from Santa Clara county.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Santa_Clara/60535/171298/Web01/en/summary.html

[NOVA Green]

Updated California Democratic Primary vote Count:

Since 6/8 early AM when 100% of early Vote-by-Mail (VbM) and same day votes were counted, by my numbers here are the updates:

Out of an additional 130k votes 56.2k Bernie to 74.2k Hillary for a slight increase in Hillary's margins that are overwhelmingly later Vote-by-Mail ballots. (Sbane so far you're looking right on later VbMs)

The overwhelming majority of counties, including most of the key voter population centers have had no updates since election night and there are a huge number of Provisional votes outstanding from same-day votes, as well as extremely large numbers of later VbM ballots still to be counted.

Key highlights of Dem results:

Contra Costa- 28k new votes (39-61 Hillary)
Orange- 15.3k new votes (42-58 Hillary)
San Bernardino- 20.4k new votes (46-54 Hillary)
San Diego- 14.1k new votes (39-61 Hillary)
San Francisco- 19.9k new votes (47-53 Hillary)
Santa Clara- 36k new votes (43-57 Hillary)
Solano- 1k new votes (51-49 Bernie)

Glenn County flips to Sanders (Holmes check off another county on your election prediction map)

A few smaller NorCal counties moving into tossup range (Colusa, Amador) or Bernie increases margins  (Lassen & Sierra)

[NOVA Green]

Where do you see those numbers, NOVA? The California SOS site only show an increase of about 50k votes from election night.

Been grinding it out from individual county websites... created a spreadsheet Wednesday AM after Monterey and LA got to 100% and been tracking since...

Cal SoS has been extremely slow in updating, but at least a few counties in the Bay Area have been updating regularly, along with some minor updates in urban SoCal and a handful of rural counties.

Am working remotely and part-time the past couple days. so a bit too much free time on my hands I guess.

[NOVA Green]

So basically Bernie won Hollywood, Downtown LA, Koreatown, probably places like Highland Park as well as Studio City, downtown Glendale etc. A little hard to tell from that map of course. Someone have a more detailed precinct map?

I wish!!! About to post some data from SF neighborhoods in another thread...

[NOVA Green]

So also looks like Sanders won San Pedro and South Long Beach, as well as Long Beach in general...

Explanations???

[NOVA Green]

Nah, it makes sense. In terms of favorable to Hillary, it should be early mail-in votes -> late mail-in votes -> election day votes -> provisional ballots.

So any idea generally how election offices in most counties in California count these... do they generally wait to do provisionals last until they validate that people that requested VbMs didn't have a providional?

[NOVA Green]

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo flipped to Sanders, but Clinton's margin continues to expand.

Source for Santa Barbara? Saw the numbers on S.L.O....

[NOVA Green]

It makes sense that so many people chose West Virginia as one of the four states. It really has gone more Republican during the Obama administration and Clinton lost its primary by a large margin.

Hey Chrome--- not quite sure what you are saying regarding the 6/7 Dem primaries.... although WV is a fascinating topic, I think you might have meant to post on another thread?

[NOVA Green]

So Huge night for Cal-Dem vote counting when we are finally starting to see the tail end of Vote-by-Mail (VbM), with an additional 250k votes having been counted in the past 24 hours...

These are all overwhelmingly late VbM's with the exception of handful of extremely low population counties that have already counted Provisional (Provo) ballots...

LA County- 40.6k (40-60 Hillary). First update of election results in the county all VbMs and >250k VbMs and 252k Provos (Heavily same day county).

Santa Clara County- 25.2k votes (47-53 Hillary) and ~30k provisionals

Contra Costa County- 22.4k votes (49.5-50.5% Hillary) and 19k Provos.

Alameda County- 20.8k votes (47.5-52.5% Hillary) and 42k Provos.

San Diego County- 18.3k votes (39-61 Hillary) and 73k Provos.

Stanislaus- 14.5k Votes (49-51 Hillary) and 6k Provos.

Riverside- 14.4k votes (41-59 Hillary) and 28k Provos.

Ventura- 12.8k votes (52-48 Bernie) and 15k Provos.

San Francisco- 11.6k votes (47-53 Hillary) and 20k Provos.

Orange- 10.4k votes (51.5-48.5 Bernie) and 61k Provos.

San Mateo- 10.3k votes (35-65 Hillary) and 13k Provos.

Fresno- 8.7k votes (45-55 Hillary) and 15k Provos.

Santa Barbara- 8.2k votes (54-46 Bernie) and 7k Provos.

S.LO.- 8k votes- 56-44 Bernie) and 4.6k Provos.

Also minor numbers from Marin (3.5k 37-63 Hillary), Shasta (3.4k  59-41 Bernie), Tehama (1.7k 54-46 Bernie), as well as some major gains for Bernie in small rural NorCal counties *Del Norte, Amador, Colusa, Sutter (*), Tuolumne, and Yuba) as well as Kings Co. in the Central Valley.

[NOVA Green]

So now that late VbMs are kicking in, it looks quite possible that Bernie will perform better in Metro LA than the Bay Area, contrary to all conventional wisdom.

SoCal has been much slower to report than the Bay Area, and LA County has a ton of votes. (Estimated 620k ballots heavily Dem), including 250k Provisionals and additionally trending in OC, Riverside, and San Bernadino indicates that late VbM ballots are likely trending Bernie, and that although Hillary is performing better with wealthier Democrats, she has had a major drop in support in working-class Latino precincts within LA County.

Alameda County might well flip with the Provo vote, and SF, Santa Clara, Contra Costa, Solano and Santa Clara will tighten, but with the same-day and early VbMs it is much more difficult to see dramatic changes in overall regional vote percentages than in LA/OC and Inland Empire....

Bernie appears to have won Long Beach, including majority Latino and African-American precincts in North Long Beach, as well as working class neighborhoods near San Pedro (Long live the ILWU!).

One of the more interesting late VbM data sets released today is a huge late VbM Bernie margin in 32%+ Latino counties where increasingly people are doing a 1-2 hour commute each way to work jobs in the Bay Area or the "Sac" just in order to be able to afford a starter home.

[NOVA Green]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

Define significant.... meaning that it goes to a 10% gap or a 5% gap???

Realistically, it doesn't appear likely to drop to low single digits, however provisionals look quite likely to break heavily for Sanders and late vote-by-mails are starting to hit in Bay Area counties and break much more heavily for Sanders than the early VbMs....

I still think that the margins could well drop from +12 to +6 Hillary once all of the votes come in...