Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[NOVA Green]

Now that 35/58 counties in California have started processing the late Vote-by-Mail ballots, we have some interesting data points to help understand trends in the largest chunk of outstanding votes and how this might play out and impact on margins.

Firstly, overall election day numbers from 6/9 AM when LA and Monterey County provided their final 100% precinct numbers total votes (1.5 Mil- 1.94 Mil Bernie- Hillary and 43.6%-56.5% Hillary) to date there have been an additional 400k VbMs counted breaking 45-55 Hillary, compared to the election day 43-57 margin in those same counties.

Of the (35) counties that have counted late VbMs, Bernie is winning the late VbM vote in 17/35 and of those he only won (7) on election day and in 28/35 "Late VbM counties" there has been a swing towards Bernie in the late votes compared to election day results.

Of the (23) counties that have not updated results since election day, there were ~420k election day votes counted (49-51 Hillary) and for the most part are generally smaller population centers including a mix of heavily Bernie counties (Santa Cruz, Humboldt, Butte) and heavily Hillary counties (San Joaquin and Kern).

So what trends are we seeing throughout the various regions of California?

1.) Bay Area---- Almost 45% of 420k late VbMs counted are coming from the Bay Area, and are currently running 45-55 Hillary compared to election day numbers of 42-58 Hillary. This trend is especially pronounced in the two counties that have counted a significant chunk of late VbM ballots. San Francisco was 44-56 Hillary on election day and total margins are now 45-55. Santa Clara was 39-61 Hillary on election day and total margins are now 41-59. Contra Costa County as 40-60 Hillary on election day and is now 41-59 Hillary. There also appears to be a trend in between Late VbMs that were received in the mail earlier with Late VbMs that were postmarked election day, since those three counties have been posting regularly where the late VbMs counted first on 6/9 were 43-57 Hillary and those counted on 6/10 were 48-52 Hillary. This will be an interesting trend to watch, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Bernie take a late VbM lead in Alameda that has had only one small update of 20k (48-52 Hillary) compared to election day 46-54 Hillary. Considering that there are 110k VbMs outstanding and 42k Provisionals in a heavily Democratic County this could move to a toss-up category if "Wave 2" VbMs follow the pattern we have seen in SF, Santa Clara, and Contra Costa. Similarly, Marin and San Mateo that heavily supported Hillary have only one Late VbM dump with small trending towards Hillary compared to election day results. Will "Wave 2" late VbMs remain static or will there be shifts?

2.) Rural/ Smaller population Centers in NorCal and Sierra Nevadas. Here is where we are seeing the single largest shift in margins from same-day and early VbMs with all of these counties having a net Late VbM win for Bernie, and in most cases a significant swing in total % margins. Not a ton of major pop centers, but is still relevant both for map geeks out there that have made county predictions, where we could well see 3-4 counties flip over the next few weeks, as well as a decent net vote gain for Bernie when places like Butte and Humboldt start reporting late VbM numbers.

3.) Central Coast. Here is where we have been the most dramatic shifts from election day numbers in SLO, Santa Barbara, and Ventura, with significant VbM wins and overall margin swings towards Bernie. If this trend continues this could well indicate significant shifts in SC, Monterey counties that haven't yet reported any Late VbMs and Ventura continuing to tighten. Also, it could well be an indicator of a flip in Yolo County, since it is likely that younger "same-day" vote-by-mail ballots in counties with major universities are breaking heavily Bernie.

4.) Central Valley Not tons of data to work with (Since most counties, including several major counties (San Joaquin and Kern) have not reported any updates, however of the (5) that have election day numbers (120k Dem votes) were 41-59 Hillary and current totals (150k votes) are 42-58 Hillary with Late VbMs only 46-54 Hillary. If these patterns hold when Wave 2 late VbMs kick in there is a good chance that the Central Valley will be the region that swings most heavily against Hillary from '08 to '16.

5.) Sacramento Not too much to say yet. Election results were 43-57 Hillary, but only 16k "Late" VbMs were added, so will need to watch closely to see if VbMs posted the day before or of the election start to move on way or another.

6.) SoCal- Again very limited data, but since 55% of Dem ballots to date within the giant sprawling area that is SoCal, obviously is key to whatever the final margins will be in Cali. SoCal was 43-57 Clinton on election day and currently are 42-58 Clinton. The "Big Enchilada" aka LA County did one small "Late VbM" dump of 40k but considering what we have seen in the Bay Area, where there appears to be a major difference between VbMs mailed in 2-3 days before the election versus "day before" or "same-day" mail ins, it doesn't really give us an idea of how late VbMs will trend, of which there are currently a total of 340k outstanding as well as 250k Provisionals, both of which will likely be heavily Democratic Party ballots. OC has added an additional 25k votes since election day that are running 46-54 Hillary with 145k total VbMs (for all parties) yet to be counted. The most intersting item is that the "Wave 2" "Late VbMs are starting to trend Bernie 52-48, so I expect not only Hillary margins to drop, but also a drop in Net Vote numbers from OC. Riverside had one small "Wave 1" Late vote drop, so like LA county will need to see how late VbMs roll with an estimated 92k Total outstanding. San Bernadino had one "Late VbM dump" of 20k votes (46-54 Hillary) so again not much data to work on, but if this trend continues of the 58k Late VbMs outstanding we could also well see a major shift with "Wave 2" VbMs. San Diego County has dumped an additional 19k votes since election day in two returns and unlike anywhere else in the State has actually seen a net decrease in "Late VbMs", however there are still an estimated 200k VbMs to be counted.

Key Questions:

1.) Will "Day before" and "Same Day" VbM ballots (Wave 2) start to trend Bernie in SoCal, as they have in the Bay Area, in which case the race will tighten significantly to single digit margins? The little data we have indicates this might well be the case in OC and San Bernadino. LA County is still a giant question mark because of the sheer number of ballots outstanding (620k), including 240k Provisionals. San Diego County initially looks like an outliar, however like most urban counties in California, outside of the Bay Area, has been extremely slow to even dump "Wave 1" VbM ballots.

2.) Could SF and Alameda flip once all the votes are counted? Both are overwhelmingly Democratic counties, and it appears that "Wave 2" Late VbM ballots are trending Bernie, and we can assume that the Provisional votes are going to be overwhelmingly Democratic and once we start seeing the final late VbMs it is entirely possible.

3.) WTF is going on in the Central Valley? Hillary's best region in '08 versus Obama, but late VbMs moving heavily against her. Combine that with a heavily young and Latino new electorate, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 40-60 Hillary '08 win shrink to a 45-55 Hillary win.

4.) NorCal and Sierra Nevada Rurals- I always expected this part of the state to swing heavily against Hillary in '16 based upon patterns seen in similar parts of Oregon, as well as a huge Edwards vote back in Feb '08. Can Hillary hold onto the Obama base in areas like this, that are heavily white and working-class, that she won in the '08 primaries, in a GE vs Trump?


Anyways, thought I would share the Cali Dem primary data that I've been crunching since election day, since it is a state that has a bizarre hybrid system of Early Vote-by-Mail, Same Day voting, Late vote-by-mails (that seem to be running two-tone just like South London in the late '70s/early '80s, and the "insurgent" provisional ballots that went through the roof this year among younger first-time voters, Working-Class Latinos that haven't always voted in the primaries, since Trump first started to open his mouth back in January and started winning elections.

Please contribute any insights, perspectives, critique, but my main goal isn't to promote any kind of agenda or goal, but rather dissect the updates that are currently available and potential trends as part of a Political-Science examination of the current data available to contribute to the overall body of knowledge.

[NOVA Green]

Anybody have an updated map?

Ok... took a few minutes and was in a rush so no legend embed in the graphics... apologies for the ugliness on the outside of the maps, but had a few issues with Paint.Net and the maps i was using where Inyo and San Diego counties made things a little crazy.

So the first map basically shows the margins and calls out counties with no late VbM counted:

Dark Blue/Red= Bernie/Hillary +15%
Medium Blue/Purple= Bernie/Hillary +7.5%
Green/Yellow= Bernie/Hillary <7.5%
Dark Gray= Bernie Lead but not Vote-by-mails (VbM) counted
Light Gray= Hillary Lead but no Vote-by-Mails (VbM) counted

Second map shows margins as of earlier today using the same color coding...

[NOVA Green]

Anybody have an updated map?

Besides the one at California's SoS site?

Did not know that existed. Thank you!

It does take some time for them to update. Going to each county website would be more accurate, but with 58 counties, that would take some time.

Already done it.... the maps I posted are reflective of current county reports as of earlier today...

Been tracking numbers since election day on a spreadsheet, and with the possible exception of Santa Clara county that does an AM and PM update each day, it is extremely unlikely that the results will have changed in any of the other counties.

[NOVA Green]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

Some people on this forum seem to have a bit of an obsession with vote by mail counting that doesn't change much of anything. I'm rather glad most states haven't moved to the system.

Well yeah, we're a forum of political geeks, of course some of us are interested in what the final margin in these races turn out to be.

Plus, corny as it may sound, every vote deserves to be counted.

Speaking of which (Geek Mode), ever since I was 8 years old spent hours of time in the University library in my town writing down manually election returns and color coding county maps. When I was a teenager, I started to get into precinct returns and made regular visits to the State Election archives and manually wrote down election returns by precinct for Presidential, Senate, US Rep, and ballot initiatives in multiple binders and coded against precinct and city.

In High School in my AP-History Class I did a 1860 County level Presidential Map for my final project, and in college for a 300 level History Class did a 10 page paper on election returns in Chicago from '68-80 mapped against census data where the 1848 German-American immigrants started to play a major role in the development of a new coalition in one of the fastest growing cities in America and that time, that become (and still is) one of the largest cities in America.

Love political Geeks, and love this forum because it is a place where we can sit argue and debate, but regardless of political ideology and opinions, numbers and data provide an objective benchmark to rationally discuss, once we eliminate the smokescreen of the "3-day" political news cycle.

Thank God for the internet, that makes it so much easier!!!

[NOVA Green]

Ok... so Cali Dem Primary map only including new votes since election day to understand the "Late VbM results.

Gray counties= no updates since election day

Dark Blue/ Dark Red Bernie-Hillary = +15% from "Late" Vote-by-Mail (VbM) ballots
Medium Blue / Purple= +7.5% Bernie-Hillary from "Late Vote-by-Mail ballots
Green/Yellow= <7.5% Bernie-Hillary from Late Vote-by-Mail ballot

Note that there are (4) urban Red counties (Most significantly LA County ~40k votes) and a lesser extent Sac  that did a small initial vote dump, where Late VbM's favor Hilary heavily but this is likely to change significantly once Wave 2 Late VbMs kick in.

San Bernadino/Riverside/ San Diego that have barely reported Late VbMs have a medium Hillary lead.

Orange County has a narrow Bernie lead in Late VbMs.

Alameda/ SF/ Stanlius are narrow Hillary leads in Late VbMs.

NorCal/ Sierra Nevada rural--- Heavily Bernie lead in Late VbMs.

Central/ South Coast- Solid Bernie lead in Late VbMs

[NOVA Green]

Okay, final map of the night for Cali.

Shows the % change from election night until today and appears to indicate margins shifting 1-2% without provisionals.

[NOVA Green]

Ok... California Dem Primary updates for anyone that cares or is interested in voters actually interested in the obscure dynamics of a hybrid Early Vote by Mail/ Same Day / Late Vote by Mail / Provisional ballots.

An additional 200k votes counted since late Friday as per county election sites (49.5-50.5% Hillary):

By order of total Dem vote updated:

Alameda County - 66.5k votes (50.1-49.9 Bernie)
San Diego County- 36.5k votes (47-53 Hillary)
Orange County- 31.9k votes (53-47 Bernie)
San Francisco- 15k votes (51-49 Bernie)
San Bernadino- 13.7k votes (48-52 Hillary)
Monterey- 8.5 k votes (45-55 Hillary)
Kern- 3.4k (42-58 Hillary)
Santa Clara- 2.5k (51-49 Bernie)
Imperial- 1.8k (30-70 Hillary)
Calaveras-700 (59-41 Bernie)


So key items to note, we are first starting to see late vote-by-mail ballots (VbM) trickling in from Socal, and initial results seem to be trending heavily Bernie, as measured by San Bernadino and OC.

Several counties in the Bay Area are close to counting late VbMs and SF and Santa Clara are looking like a 1.5% from same-day and early ballots.

Alameda county had its largest dump so far, and Bernie has a narrow lead already, with many more late VbM to be counted.

Monterey county had its first vote dump since election night, but doesn't appear to be mirroring SLO and Santa Barbara thus far, where there was a dramatic swing from early VbMs and Same-Day votes.

Kern County- First vote dump from Late VbMs and no change in margins, unlike Fresno County. How does this play out in the Central Valley that has been extremely slow to count to understand how the Democratic Primary played out in the heart of UFW country?

Now... with much more limited data from Socal (Nothing really from LA), but an early late VbM surge from Bernie in Orange and San Bernadino, it really does look that at the end of day Bernie might well perform better in Socal than the Bay Area.

Regardless, looks like an overall statewide +1-1.5% from election day numbers assuming that current VbM trends hold, and quite possibly once provisionals are counted a 7-9% Hillary win.

Thoughts/Comments/Whatever....

Sbane... we might need to review the "Late Vote-by-Mail" scenario since it appears that there are multiple waves that trended Hillary early and shifted Bernie later.

Still, thus far total raw numbers favor Hillary 50-50 on Late VbMs, but there does appear to be a bit of a shift taking place in SoCal, outside of SD, as well as Alameda in East Bay.

[NOVA Green]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/742574179875053568

That's the exact data I have been providing in my updates in a county-by-county scenario, running swing maps from election day from reporting counties...

Margins will likely tighten from 43-57 to 45-55 by the time all the Late Vote-By-Mail ballots are counted and provisionals could well take it down to a 7-9% margin....

Ultimately, LA County is really going to be the big decider of final margins and we have almost no date regarding VbM ballots with potentially 400-450k Democratic ballots outstanding...

[NOVA Green]

So are the two questions remaining:

1) Will it be single digits or double digits?
2) Will she do better or worse than in 2008?

Icespear,

Both very good questions, but that honestly I can't predict the answers on yet, however there are some extremely interesting patterns emerging that indicate the race could well end up within single digit margins, as well as a lower margin victory than '08.

The key variable appears to be the Norcal (Bay Area) and SoCal dynamic.

In the former, Clinton is over-performing '08 margins based upon strong LGBT & AA support in SF (Initial precinct level data analysis), huge swings from Obama '08 to Hillary '12 voters in high income Anglo/Asian voters in South Bay (Santa Clara precinct results) and the Peninsula, as well as places like Walnut Creek/Concord, while at the same time losing large chunks of Middle-Class Asian/Latino/Anglo voters from Sunset to Sunnyvale and the East Bay.

The offset is Socal, where Bernie is significantly overperforming Obama '08 numbers, particularly with working and middle class Latinos, Anglos, and Asian-Americans.

I just started wading into the precinct and municipal data from LA County, but it does appear not only since election day, but now that we are finally starting to see some of the late VbM results from Socal, that there could well be a scenario where Obama narrowly won BAR vs Hillary in '08 and Bernie loses the region by 10%, while only losing Socal by 7% once the provisionals are finally counted.

Personally, I think the sheer number of votes in Socal in that scenario would likely indicate a worse performance than in '08, if I had to gaze into a crystal ball, but we should have a better idea in another week once all the late VbMs are counted.

[NOVA Green]

Update from Cali.... 232k Dem Ballots counted since yesterday's update (49.4-50.6% Hilary)...

LA County- 130k (48-52 Hillary). This is Huge as it is the first real update from LA County since election day, and with many more late VbM ballot to be counted, appears to indicate a late VbM trend towards Bernie, and as the largest county and Democratic vote base in the state, a significant shift from election day results to final margins.

Riverside County- 25k (50-50* Hillary). There was one small update since election day, but the county has now moved from (39-61 Hillary) to (41-59 Hillary) one of the largest election day swings of any major county in Cali and well beyond the statewide swing.

Santa Cruz- 20.7k (62-38 Bernie). First update since election day and a 2.1% swing in a massive late VbM dump. Key question is will we see something similar in Yolo County, and possibly Monterey County with the next update. Provos should trend overwhelmingly....

San Diego- 17.7k (53-47 Bernie). SD has been somewhat efficient in processing late VbMs and it is difficult to tell how many are outstanding, but thus far there has been a much lower swing from election day numbers than in most other Metro counties in California.

Orange- 7.9k (52-48 Bernie). OC is gradually winding down late VbMs with a 1.1% swing from election day.

Santa Barbara- 7.4k (58-42 Bernie). Provos should trend overwhelmingly....

Butte- 5.7k (69-31 Bernie). Provos should trend overwhelmingly....

Nevada= 4.6k (64-36 Bernie). First county update.

El Dorado- 4.3k (57-43 Bernie). First county update.

San Francisco- 1.8k (52-48 Bernie). Winding up late VbM numbers and only a 1% swing from ED numbers.

Santa Clara- 4.3k (53-47 Bernie). Very interesting trending here since election day and was overwhelmingly Clinton early, but one of best performances for Bernie statewide in a metro county in swings from ED. Most of late VbMs are counted, but because of the efficiency of the Santa Clara County elections department, this could be one of the first major counties in the state where we start to see how the provisional votes are breaking.

[NOVA Green]

Any county flips?

Since Election day or county flips since Santa Barbara and San Louis Obispo posted 6/10?

[NOVA Green]

Clinton's lead is down to 10.9%

Clinton 55.0%
Sanders 44.1%

Notice however that her lead in actual votes has not gone down.  It means shes been winning the late ballots.

Technically true if one looks at "total late Vote-by-mail ballots counted since election day", but what is obscured in this statement is that the trend-lines from the first wave of "Late VbM" ballots consistently show that Hillary has not only seen a decrease of total percentages as a result of the late vote in the past week, but has actually narrowly lost the actual raw vote count.


So for example of the ~ 60.5k ballots updated today  (51-49) Bernie.

Yesterday's numbers  232.3k additional ballots (51-49 Bernie).

Monday's  numbers (Including weekend updates)- 182.3k ballots  (49.5-50.5%) Hillary.

So basically of the 475,000 Democratic ballots counted/updated over just the past three days they are now breaking for Bernie, even in counties with early VbM and election day numbers that Clinton won overwhelmingly (LA County's only real update so far of 130k votes was only 48-52 Hillary) and even Fresno and Kern county that both updated today with a decent chunk of ballots were only 51% Hillary.

So, what I am trying to say is that based upon my daily tracking of updates there appears to be a clear trend, is the the first wave of late VbMs favored Hillary, but the final wave of VbMs, that are predominately people that sent their ballots in only a few days before election day (And are the last to be counted) have actually been trending heavily Bernie.

What this means is that, considering where the bulk of the remaining VbMs are outstanding plays a factor, although granted we don't know the party affiliation breakdown of these ballots.

SoCal in general has been extremely favorable to Bernie in late VbMs and likely at least 25% of outstanding VbMs are from LA/Riverside/San Bernadino/Orange/San Diego.

In the Bay Area, much of the late VbMs have been counted, but Alameda which is Bernie's best county in the Bay still has 22k late VbMs that are likely overwhelmingly Democratic Party ballots.

Contra Costa County has been pretty inefficient in the pace of their vote counting, but has an estimated 56k outstanding late VbMs... they only did one small dump after election day and Bernie gained 1.1% in the margins, so even though a fairly heavily Hillary county in the Bay with EVs and Same Days, wouldn't be surprised to see not much if any of a final late VbM gain for Hillary.

Same with Marin, with ~25k late VbMs outstanding heavily Democratic ballots.

Sonoma, which hasn't updated anything since election day, really looks to me like a Santa Barbara/SLO county flip scenario, along with Yolo county.

So point is "Late VbMs" had an initial Hillary win, appear to be reversing course and could well be a Hillary loss once we get some more counties finalizing.

Provisional ballots, that no one has even started counting yet, excepting a few counties with <10k residents, however, is where there will likely be not only a visible shift in margins, but also drop off of total vote numbers, which is where we get to the "what percentage will the final Hillary win be" scenario.

[NOVA Green]

Margin is down to 10.7%.

Clinton 54.9%
Sanders 44.2%

It's going to change a lot over the coming days Eraserhead, you don't have to update us over every update.

I don't have to but I choose to.

Erasehead might choose not to, but I will regardless, since unfortunately California has an even more complex and delayed Vote-by-Mail process than most other Western States...

Telling my age, but first Pres election that I could vote in was '92, and although I always voted from ever primary and GE, AND, am tracking results daily, even on my wedding anniversary.

Have been working in the private sector for the past 20 years, and will continue to follow and post updates, since after not only a Poly-Sci under grad degree, plus a Masters, and not to be rude, but if you don't appreciate updates you don't need to view them.....

[NOVA Green]

So when about 2 million ballots were left, she was ahead by 11.1%. Now that about 1.3 million ballots are left, she's ahead by 10.5%. If you make the assumption things continue in that pattern, she'd win by about 9.3%. However, provisionals throw a wrench in that, since a) we have no clue how many will be deemed invalid b) they should be much more Bernie friendly than the mail ins. There are about 600k mail ins left and 700k provisionals. This could be a squeaker to see whether or not she beats her 2008 margin (+8.31%). Being within single digits looks close to certain at this point.

Well spoken, and appears to  be objectively accurate

[NOVA Green]

Clinton finishes at 55.8% in CA.

Nah, it'll probably settle in around a 10 point margin.

So NBC is estimating there's 31% of the vote remaining, which if it splits 50-50 would be a 10 point margin, and if it splits 55-45 Bernie would be more like a 7.5% margin.

Looking at how Hillary did with well off people, I think the late mail in ballot will be more 50-50 than 55-45 Bernie. It might even be a slight Hillary win. The election day votes must all be counted by this point. That is likely more favorable to Bernie than mail in ballots, even if it is the last minute ones.

So it looks like you pretty much nailed this one and likely to the percentage!....

Of the 1,107,836 ballots counted since election day (49.1-50.9 Hillary) at this point with a 19.5k Hillary lead.

The Cal SoS website lists a total of ~490k Total Late Vote-by-Mail ballots (All parties) remaining to be counted, but that number is significantly lower, because not all county updated are included in the "Unprocessed Ballots Report".

There ~160k total Late Vote-by-Mail ballots from counties that have not provided any updates since Election Day that went (48.2-51.8 Hillary) on early VbM and Election Day (Humboldt, Lake, Madera, Mendocino, Placer, Plumas, San Joaquin, Sonoma, and Yolo). I think it is a relatively safe assumption that late VbMs will break heavily Bernie in these counties.

There are also approximately 85k total Late Vote-by-Mail ballots in counties remaining that have only partially completed their counting.:

Los Angeles County (25k)- Bernie will likely win the lions share of this last batch... Last dump of ~50k Dem ballots a few days ago was (53.5-46.5% Bernie).

Contra Costa County (20k)- Not sure who will win the final batch, but last dump was (45.4-54.6 Hillary)

Monetery County (11.6k)- Not sure who will win the final batch, but last dump was (45.1-54.9 Hillary).

Napa County (14k)- This should be a decent Hillary win on oustandings.

San Diego (10k?)- Honestly not sure if there are even that many ballots out, but whatever is left will break heavily Bernie (Last dump was 55-45 Bernie).

Nevada County (7k)- Was a 60% Bernie county on ED.

Other than that, there are only a small handful of counties that haven't completely finished counting their late VbMs (Stanislaus, San Benito, Tulare, and San Bernadino) where we'll see some additional updates.

So looking at what's outstanding for late VbMs, I think Bernie could likely narrowly win that vote but either way it will probably be right around 50-50% rather than a 49/51 or 51/49 win on either side.

Want to take any guesses on how the provisional vote will break down for the next leg of the race?

[NOVA Green]

So Cali is now overwhelmingly done counting Same Day/ Early Vote-by-Mail (VbM) and Late VbM ballots ( <180k left from a handful of North Coast/Vineyard counties and a last dump from LA and a few trickles from elsewhere) time to look at the Provisional ballots combined with County trending to guess what the final margins might look like.

Here is a map of all post Election morning ballots to date (1.14 Mil) so basically all late VbMs.

Blue- Bernie
Red- Hillary



My theory is that provisional ballots will swing more heavily Bernie than Late VbMs by 20+%.

NOTE: These are total provisional votes and not just Democratic Party ballots.

About 65% of total provisional ballots are from SoCal (LA County, Riverside, San Bernardino, OC, Ventura and San Diego). There were 550k Dem Late Vote-by-Mails counted that went (49-51 Hillary).

Breakdown (60% LA/Ventura/20% SD County/20% Inland Empire/10% OC.)

There are 440k Provisional ballots in Socal only 55% are valid Democrat Party ballots and they break 60-40 Bernie, that would be a 100k net Bernie vote gain.

Bay Area Region

Only 100k Provisionals from the Bay Area (~15%), make an assumption that maybe 70% are Dem ballots and that they break 60-40 Bernie for a plus 15k net vote gain.

Central Valley

Only 50k Provisionals, and based upon late VbMs, let's assume is only 55% Dem Valid and breaks 50-50 since (Kern, Frenso, San Joaquin were only a 43-57 Hillary win on late votes). Regardless don't see there being a major net gain for Provisional Votes in these regions.

Sacramento Area

One of Hillary's best counties in the primaries, with hardly any move on the margins from same-day to final VbM. This might be the only region of the state where Hillary doesn't lose the Provisional Vote.... we'll see, but been amazed at how not only how strong Sac was for Hillary on Election day, but how well her margins have held up and won (45-55) on Late VbMs..... this is a major exception, outside of a few high wealth counties like San Mateo, and Marin.

Misc Rural Norcal/ Sierra Nevadas

Basically the remainder of the statewide vote. Not tons of huge pop centers, but some of Bernie's best regions, especially with late vote-by-mails.

I figure the trend will continue, and from my experience in Southern Oregon, the early vote-by-mails are heavily Senior, and provisionals will likely  deliver the highest % margins of any of the regions of Cali.

So, does this analysis sound accurate or is there an over/under estimated proportion of Dem ballots and Bernie/Hillary % that isn't realistic. If not so, then why?

Wouldn't be surprised to see Hillary's lead drop by 150k from todays numbers once Cali finally finishing counting their ballots.

[NOVA Green]

I am using this.

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

I would also add Alpine County to that list...

I've run into a few issues with delayed updates to that report, compared to County level sites but would imagine a 0-0-0 should indicate that there are no ballots remaining to be counted, albeit not yet officially updated with the SoS in the system.

What's really annoying is the delay in updating the vote-by-mail ballots number for counties that we know have updated vote counts from a week ago!:

For example, it lists ~22.3k Vote-by-Mail ballots outstanding for Alameda County, but the reality is that all of the VbMs have pretty much been counted for the county with updated county numbers posted on 6/16 and 6/17.

I would view as suspect any total vote-by-mail numbers on this report from counties that have not provided any updates there since election day/night/early morn, such as Humboldt/Mendocino/Sonoma, as well as counties that have provided updates since ED on their county websites and/or updated to the "President Statewide Page" but not yet to this report (Nevada county).

So my thought would be that the "County Reporting Status" webpage should be considered "official declaration of final ballots counting pending SoS certification" but that the "Unprocessed ballot report" will pretty much tell us what counties are basically done counting their votes, but haven't yet updated the SoS for this report.

[NOVA Green]

Provisional ballots now starting to come in for the first time...

San Diego County (Possibly some VbMs included) 10k Dem Ballots (57.5-42.5 Bernie).
Orange County- (All Provisionals)- 8.7k Dem Ballots(63-37 Bernie).
Santa Clara County (All Provisionals)- 5.2k Dem Ballots (59-41 Bernie).
San Francisco County (All Provisionals)- 2.7k Dem Ballots (60-40 Bernie).
Solano County- (All Provisionals)- 1.7k Dem Ballots (61-39 Bernie).
Siskiyou County- (All Provisionals)- 300 Dem Ballots (73-27 Bernie).

Based upon this data, it looks like my (60-40 Bernie) Provisional estimate is tracking, although both in NorCal and SoCal, although obviously without any data from LA County with 250k Provisionals alone, this doesn't necessarily tell us how this will impact total margins.

However, looking at the prelim provisional data from the Bay Area, I'm now moving Alameda officially into a "tossup" status. There are 42k Provisionals in an overwhelmingly heavily Dem county, and there is currently only a 10k gap between the two candidates, and based upon early data would not be surprised to see Bernie hit  65-70% of valid Provisional Dem ballots.

Elsewhere, still a ton of provisionals in OC, where Hillary leads by 18k votes (47.2-52. and I think it will likely end up 49-51 Hillary).

Siskiyou County is an interesting example, because it basically provides and indicator at what will happen in more populous counties like Humboldt/Mendecino and similar parts of Norcal once we get some actual post-election day results, where there appear to be a huge chunk of VbMs out there....

Either that, or the local "Headband" hybrids made the county election departments so efficient, that every singe vote-by-mail and provisionals were all counted on election day, and everyone is just waiting until the last date for the county to provide results to the state. That is an inside joke for anyone who has spent any time in the North Coast and chilled in NorCal overall, including Bay Area and Central Coast.






 

[NOVA Green]

I think things will round to 53-46 Clinton at the end.

That's about what I have...

I figure we have about 150k Democratic Vote-by-Mails out total, with about 80k from the counties that haven't updated since Election Day (Humboldt, Mendocino, Sonoma, Yolo, Lake, and Placer) and 70k Dem Vote-by-Mails from the misc stragglers that have only partially reported (LA, Sac, Contra Costa, Napa, Monterey, and a few other misc. smaller numbers from elsewhere).

I'm guessing that maybe 60% of the <590k Provisional ballots out there will be valid Dem ballots, (but could be a bit lower, who knows really) and that they'll break about 60-40 Bernie-Hillary so thinking at the end of the day we'll have about 5.1 Million Dem ballots and roughly 2,370,000 Bernie and 2,740,000 Hillary.

If we drop off the 1% for the misc candidates I'm coming up with something like 45.9-53.1% Hillary.

Really, LA County provisionals are going to be the major factor in the final margins, with an estimated 250k Provo ballots out from that county alone.

[NOVA Green]

Yolo county just flipped.... first update from the county since Election day went from (48-52 Clinton) to (51.5-48.5 Bernie).

So time for everyone to take a look at their California County predication maps... I think this was something we were all expecting, but still worth of noting.

[NOVA Green]

Do we know what % of provisionals ended up being valid in the counties that have already counted them?

That's the challenging part, since most counties don't break down by provisionals on their updates, let alone the % that are valid, not to mention how many of the provisionals end up as Dem/Rep/Other ballots...

I have been downloading and saving the "Unprocessed Ballot Report" generally once or twice a day, as well as tracking county level updates, with the exception of my wedding anniversary last Wednesday when I lumped 6/15 and 6/16 into one column respectively on my tracking spreadsheet.

I'll try to go back a little later to see if we have any idea from more populous counties that have started counting provisionals, but yeah unfortunately there are some major gaps in California's reporting structures and standardized procedures, obviously designed specifically to annoy us election geeks, party operatives, Political Scientists, etc etc etc....

[NOVA Green]

Margin down to 9.5%:

Clinton 54.3% - 2,560,264
Sanders 44.8% - 2,113,277

Map of the completed counties per the reporting status page:

Light Blue: Clinton Plurality
Dark Blue: Clinton Majority
Light Green: Sanders Plurality
Dark Green: Sanders Majority

Hey--- where do you get a "clean map" of Cali that works with Paint.Net?

Best I found has major issues with Inyo and San Diego County (Assuming it is the Islands offshore)...

Please advise if you can....

[NOVA Green]

So another huge vote dump today, including a much larger size of Provisional ballots most significantly LA County, which is where over 40% of the outstanding Democratic Part ballots are located.

LA County- 38.9k Dem ballots, (56-44 Bernie) Including the rest of the Late VbMs and likely 20% of Provisionals. This is slightly higher than I expected.

Sacramento Co- 13.5k Dem ballots (51-49 Bernie). Looks to be almost all late VbM ballots, and Sacramento County is one of the few major urban counties where there has been marginal swing since Election Day (ED). Definitely a county to watch for Provisionals, since this is the first significant swing since we have seen from overall margins and % since Election Day.

Yolo County- 12.3k Dem ballots (59-41 Bernie). I think this is the final vote statement before certification and includes a total dump of all numbers, late VbMs, Provisionals, and disputed. So this will likely be moved to CCC status in the next few days.

Monterey Co- 9.6k Dem ballots (54-46 Bernie). Looks to be a mix of late VbMs and most Provisionals, and Montery County is starting to wind down. Still a +2.6% Swing from ED numbers is impressive and actually sounds much closer to what many of us were discussing prior to Election Day.

Riverside Co- 3.8k Dem ballots (44-56 Hillary). Appears to be all Provisonal ballots.... stands out as a major outlier. Same Day/EV 39-61 Hillary). Late VbMs were (47-53 Hillary) so it looks totally weird compared to any other county. Explanations as to why Riverside had so many Provisionals and why it would be the only county in Cali where Provisionals (Still a decent chunk outstanding) would significantly underperform the VBm results)?  It definitely does appear that percentage wise there were a much larger chunk of same-day votes tossed into a Provisional ballot bucket, in what are the most heavily Latino counties in SoCal. This isn't at all about the Dem Primary, but I've also been noticing some huge percentage of Provisional ballots in the Central Valley, in counties also dominated by Republican county officials, so got to call it out so everybody has eyeballs on these counties...

Santa Clara County- 7.3k Dem Ballots on (6/20 and 6/21). Sanata Clara County has been the best county in California when it comes to counting votes, outside of a handful of small rural counties.
These are all Provisional ballots (59.5-40.5 Bernie). This county has had one of the largest swings since ED (39.1-60.9 Hillary) to 99% including almost all provisionals (41.2-57.9 Hillary) for an overall 3% swing since ED.

Orange County- 6.1k Dem Ballots (60-40 Bernie). Pretty much all provisional ballots. Difficult to guess how many are remaining, but thinking there might be another 30k total and 20k Dem Provisional ballots out there.

San Diego- 5k Dem Ballots (66-34 Bernie). Still looks like there are a large chunk of provisionals out in SD.

San Francisco- 2.7k D Ballots (6/20 and 6/21). All Provisionals (59-41 Bernie). SF has a decent chance of beating Santa Clara County as the first major metro county in the state to complete their votes. Can't See Hillary winning this county by <7% at this point and think it will be closer to a 7.3% Hillary margin.

Alameda- Something weird going on here. No updates until 6/13 after which there were 22k VbMs and 42k Provisionals. County updates from ED on 6/13 was 22k Dem ballots, so am wondering where the rest of the ballots went, since there are major discrepancies in the actual updates vs results posted to the state.... I'm assuming this is likely a sync/update error, but if not wonder why the actual results don't match county numbers in an overwhelmingly Dem County.

Overall, looks like a pretty good vote dump for Bernie (Especially the numbers coming out of LA, San Diego, and OC), as well as relatively solid numbers from the Bay Area (With SF being somewhat weak on Provisionals.

Riverside County creates some major questions regarding overall performance for Bernie in the Inland Empire, and if this trend holds could be some issues closing the margins in Riverside/San Bernadino compared to OC/SD/Ventura and even LA County.

Anyways, just wanted to pass on the latest updates where we had over 100k Dem ballots counted, that will provide greater understanding on the total vote totals and margins.

[NOVA Green]

Great analysis, Oregon Progessive.

Just tryin'...

Other weird thing are all these counties that have a 0 at the end of their provisional ballot update sheet, which statistically seems unlikely

These include many of the large metro counties that haven't yet starting provisional ballots (Contra Costa, El Dorado, Marin, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, Stanlius, and Ventura.)

My thought is that it is normal on ED in Cali to accept provisional ballots and never really update the SoS to reflect actuals as a normal County Election Office practice.

Anyways, not necessarily a big deal, but if I were SoS in Cali it might be time to implement a standardized election platform and process, to make this giant hybrid system more transparent to the average voter.

[NOVA Green]

Relatively, low voting update today, but here's my estimation of where we are at with counties fully completing, counties with a chunk of VbMs, counties with a decent chunk of Provisional ballots, and counties mostly done counting provisionals.

So at his point, Bay Area is mostly done counting votes completely, much of rural NorCal is done (Excepting North Coast/Sonoma).

The terrain is rapidly shifting to SoCal and the Central Valley, with OC being the only Metro in SoCal that is almost done counting the ballots.