FOX5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy GA Poll: HRC 43/Trump 43

[NOVA Green]

It is increasingly looking like Georgia is a pure toss-up state at this point in the race.

My main issue is that we really haven't seen the state polled from a higher level pollster since the AJC poll on 8/6  from an A- pollster using an RV model.

I suspect we will see quite a few more polls from Georgia over the next month, since despite the relatively mediocre pollsters that have conducted post-convention polls, we are seeing a definite pattern emerging, although granted Southern White undecided voters typically tend to break Republican heavily during the final stretch of a GE.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Opinion_Savvy/status/766329883341516800

Clinton wins
Minorities
<45
Women
84% of Democrats
37% of Independents
Metro Atlanta

Trump wins
Whites 60.6% to 23% (+37.6)
>45
Men
76% of GOP
36% of Independents
Outside of Metro Atlanta

The Hispanic vote is more pro Clinton than the Black vote, which I haven't seen elsewhere.

Hispanics are 2% of the sample, so big MoE.

Brown is the New Black in Georgia....

Latinos in Georgia represent almost 10% of the state population, only 4% of eligible voters and 2% of registered voters.

The Latino population in Georgia is heavily concentrated in "Metro Atlanta", although these are extremely broad definitions that include many rural and semi-rural areas as well.

Here is some data that I pulled of Latino population by county along with 2012 GE numbers.

The most obvious data point is the extremely low voting population compared to total county population in the most heavily Latino counties in Georgia, and additionally a strong correlation between GE Republican voting percentages in many of these counties that have an extremely small Black population...


Whitfield- 103k Pop--- 27k Voters- 33% Latino (72-27 Romney)
Echols- 4k Pop--- 1.1k voters--- 29% Latino (83-16 Romney)
Hall- 180k Pop--- 61k voters--- 27% Latino (77-21 Romney)
Stewart- 6k Pop--- 2.1k voters---  25% Latino (64-36 Obama)
Atkinson-8k Pop---3k voters---  25% Latino (67-32 Romney)
Gwinnett- 860k Pop--- 297k voters--- 20% Latino (54-45 Romney)
Colquitt-  45k Pop--- 13k voters--- 18% Latino (69-30 Romney)
Chattahoochee 11k Pop--- 1.5k voters- 15% Latino (49* Romney- Obama)
Gordon- 55k Pop--- 17k voters--- 15% Latino (78-20 Romney)
Telfair- 16k Pop--- 4k voters--- 14% Latino (57-42 Romney)
Murray- 40k Pop--- 11k voters--- 14% Latino (75-23 Romney)
Habersham- 43k Pop--- 15k voters--- 14% Latino (83-16 Romney)
Clayton 259k Pop--- 96k voters- 13% Latino (85-15 Obama)
Polk- 41k Pop--- 14k voters--- 13% Latino (72-26 Romney)
Cobb- 741k Pop--- 311k voters--- 13% Latino (55-43 Romney)

Georgia is the classic "New South" state in so many regards going back to the '60s and '70s, but as we roll into the 2020s, it still retains that reputation, however if you roll through these numbers from North Georgia to the suburbs/exurbs of Atlanta to agricultural producing areas of South Georgia, it is clear that voting rights laws designed to disenfranchise Black voters, are now being modified to legitimize a systematic pattern of discrimination against the growing Latino population in the state.

# BrownIstheNewBlack

[NOVA Green]

23% of whites is the magic number for Clinton to win.

23% is what Michelle Nunn got in 2014, and she lost by 8%. Yeah, Trump won't get Perdue's numbers with Latinos, but they're only 4% of the electorate.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/

The key question is what % of the White vote will Hillary need to win Georgia with if 3rd party candidates end up raking in 5-6% of the total vote, predominately from White voters....

[NOVA Green]

^^^ I made this back in 2013 to show what percentage of the white and (combined non-white) shares of the vote would be needed to generate a specific result in GA. There are 99 scenarios here. The 2008 scenario is highlighted in green; the 2012 scenario in orange.

The 2016 GA electorate will likely be 58-59% white.

As you can see, a performance by Clinton equivalent to 2008 (23% of whites & 89% of non-whites) would give her between 50-51% of the vote; a fairly comfortable victory.

A performance equivalent to 2012 (20% of whites & 86% of non-whites) would give her between 47-48% of the vote.

I did it as a combined non-white number just because it was too complicated to do on a spreadsheet with three or four variables as opposed to two. Basically, in 2008 and 2012, those "other" non-white voters combined were around 55-60% Obama.

So, Clinton would need to do better with Latino voters (who in all likelihood are more of that "Other" than 2% or whatever; they disproportionately have registered in the past few years and SoS no longer mandates that race be specified in voter registration applications) by several points. She would also need to do at least as well as Obama did with black voters in 2012 and she'd need 2008 numbers among whites to win.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes!!!! President Griffin is in the House!

Actually when we first started to see these neck and neck Georgia polls, I tried to pull up some of your previous posts, remembering your detailed analysis of Georgia from back in '08, but you have so many posts I couldn't find what I was looking for.

So basically if Clinton can garner 23% of the White vote in a 4 person race, or even further 25% GA will likely flip?