Point taken, but unless Kerry can make any headway in any large red states (excepting WV, NH, NV), if Bush wins Ohio, Florida and any state with more than 8 electoral votes (Wisconsin is one of those), he will win regardless of a Kerry small-state strategy.
I also must respectfully disagree with the idea that these hurricanes are going to cause any lower turnout in Florida. The Panhandle of Florida especially remembers the early call to Gore before their polls had closed and will probably not take this election lightly. In fact, I doubt anyone in Florida will.
The truth is that the hurricanes might actually help Bush, because as of right now, both he and his brother are receiving exemplary marks from all polls on their handling of the situation and that might tend to overshadow other issues in the state and the nation at large.
Thats why I am still so uncertain about Bush winning FL - after what happened in 2000, you would have to assume a huge turnout - its just so unpredictable....I think Bush is ahead, but until Brit Hume tells me Bush won Florida, I wil still be so nervous. I think Republicans assuming Bush will win Florida just because the economy is good there are not taking 2000 into account
