Democrats CAN capture Texas.

[Rowan]

35% of the white vote is pretty generous considering he only won 26% this year.

[Rowan]

35% of the white vote is pretty generous considering he only won 26% this year.

In Texas?  I read that he got 32% of the white vote.

CNN Exit Poll says 26%.

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=TXP00p1

[Rowan]

If Obama wins Florida by an 8% margin

I'll stop you right there. There's no way in hell Obama wins Florida by 8 points. That means he will have to win nationally by 12 points at least which won't happen.

[Rowan]

If Obama wins Florida by an 8% margin

I'll stop you right there. There's no way in hell Obama wins Florida by 8 points. That means he will have to win nationally by 12 points at least which won't happen.

Would you have said in April 2005 that Barack Obama would've even came close to being the democratic nominee?

If the economy is "fixed" in four years, 12 points is possible.

I'd argue that each party has a baseline of 45%, and its the 10% in the middle that swing the election.

[Rowan]

If Obama wins Florida by an 8% margin

I'll stop you right there. There's no way in hell Obama wins Florida by 8 points. That means he will have to win nationally by 12 points at least which won't happen.

68% Whites (45%)
16% Black (95%)
16% Hispanic/Other (60%)

This gives him 55.4%, which would be a double digit victory; if he has a good term, then he could easily get to these numbers in Florida.

Blacks are going to go from 13% to 16%? I think Obama pretty much maxed out the black turnout this year. If they aren't going to show up to elect the first black president, I don't think they will turnout now. Also, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Obama won't get 95% of the black vote again, simply because the conservative blacks will come home without fear of being pressured into voting for him for "historic" reasons.

[Rowan]

If Obama wins Florida by an 8% margin

I'll stop you right there. There's no way in hell Obama wins Florida by 8 points. That means he will have to win nationally by 12 points at least which won't happen.

Would you have said in April 2005 that Barack Obama would've even came close to being the democratic nominee?

If the economy is "fixed" in four years, 12 points is possible.

I'd argue that each party has a baseline of 45%, and its the 10% in the middle that swing the election.

FYI, Richard M. Nixon won the 1972 Presidential election 60.67 to 35.52.  LBJ beat Goldwater 61.05 to 38.47 in 1964.  Of course, something went very wrong for the challengers -- that their opponents successfully depicted them as dangerous extremists.  So in all likelihood the partisan base for any major-party candidate is in the 35% range.

I don't claim that the 2012 election will look anything like either the 1964 or 1972 election -- and I don't want it to do so.

I'm basing it off the past 6 elections. America is more polarized now than before, so landslides are less and less likely. Barack Obama's 7 point win, is as close to a landslide as we will have in a while.