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May 23, 2024, 01:02:29 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
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Posts: 31,215
United States


« on: October 22, 2010, 01:47:07 PM »

     Wow, AndrewCT is winning so decisively! Tongue
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,215
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2010, 10:49:21 PM »

     I haven't actually looked at the vote in question, but I believe election law is quite clear that a vote for the Presidential candidate on a declared ticket is to be interpreted as a vote for that ticket. I can look it up if anyone wants.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 31,215
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2010, 11:02:45 PM »

So who expects a right-wing surge at the midterms? Smiley

     Only JCPers gaming expectations.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 31,215
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2010, 11:09:08 PM »

I fully expected a landslide loss. Right-wing seriously under-performed.

     Exhibit A of the aforementioned gaming of expectations.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,215
United States


« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2010, 11:13:14 PM »

I fully expected a landslide loss. Right-wing seriously under-performed.

     Exhibit A of the aforementioned gaming of expectations.

I'm not gaming anything, actually. I seriously believed it. Half the reason I decided not to run myself was because I didn't want the time I ran for President to result in a loss. I didn't have high hopes for this. Color me very very pleasantly surprised.

     Had the RPP & POP overperformed, you would have said nothing. Feel free to deny it all you want, of course.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,215
United States


« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2010, 11:25:36 PM »

I fully expected a landslide loss. Right-wing seriously under-performed.

     Exhibit A of the aforementioned gaming of expectations.

I'm not gaming anything, actually. I seriously believed it. Half the reason I decided not to run myself was because I didn't want the time I ran for President to result in a loss. I didn't have high hopes for this. Color me very very pleasantly surprised.

     Had the RPP & POP overperformed, you would have said nothing. Feel free to deny it all you want, of course.

PiT, I don't really know what you're trying to imply I'm doing here, but I'm not some secret spin master trying to very cleverly tilt the conversation. I expected we'd lose. I expected us to lose at least one spot in the Senate. When I say I (and Bgwah for that matter) considered AndrewCT/Duke our "worst case scenario" opposition, I am most certainly not lying.

     Evidently you aren't a secret spin master, since I managed to clue in to the innuendo of the post. Tongue Or maybe you actually are & have skillfully concealed that you have clued in to the real message of the election.

     The JCP losing a Senate seat was obviously not going to happen, unless you are counting the at-large special election as part of this election. I can't really disagree with the notion that AndrewCT/AHDuke was the strongest ticket we could have run.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,215
United States


« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2010, 11:44:12 PM »

     The expectation that Andrew would win was dependent on an assumption that was proven incorrect over the course of the election, so I suppose I cannot altogether blame you folks for your evident prognostication failure.

     Anyway, the right will most certainly not gain seats in December. This is an example of spinning expectations, but the statement is also 100% true regardless.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,215
United States


« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2010, 11:50:02 PM »

    The expectation that Andrew would win was dependent on an assumption that was proven incorrect over the course of the election, so I suppose I cannot altogether blame you folks for your evident prognostication failure.

     Anyway, the right will most certainly not gain seats in December. This is an example of spinning expectations, but the statement is also 100% true regardless.

You already have 3/5, so of course you won't.

     Of course, but there was no reason for me to bring it up except to downplay expectations of the JCP. Too bad STV makes the midterm elections pretty static without a significant centrist party.
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Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,215
United States


« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2010, 11:53:47 PM »

     The expectation that Andrew would win was dependent on an assumption that was proven incorrect over the course of the election, so I suppose I cannot altogether blame you folks for your evident prognostication failure.

     Anyway, the right will most certainly not gain seats in December. This is an example of spinning expectations, but the statement is also 100% true regardless.

You already have 3/5, so of course you won't.

     Of course, but there was no reason for me to bring it up except to downplay expectations of the JCP. Too bad STV makes the midterm elections pretty static without a significant centrist party.

The JCP is definitely going to get 2 seat... and the RPP and Populares one each. I could see it be interesting to see which of the right-wing parties gets the 5th seat, though. And the JCP might try for a third again--why not? It worked once!

     There's no reason why the JCP wouldn't be favored for the fifth seat, though I suppose conceding that would be bad for you folks. Wink
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