The ND polls are heavily understating support for Heitkamp.
The SD polls are heavily understating support for Noem.
At least 1 of the above 2 statements has to be true, not sure if anyone can tell with certainty which is true, and it is also possible that both are true.
No, not necessarily. Gubernatorial and Senatorial races sometimes follow completely different dynamics, and these are two separate states. The people of SD are voting for who they want to run their state, and the people of ND are voting for who they want to represent them at the federal level in the senate. Senate races have recently been lining up more and more with the state fundamentals each cycle.
I thank you for taking more time than I would have to parse that bizarre and unfounded analogy. It is very possible that the polls are right about both Heitkamp and Noem.