LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't think people even know the full range of what Tillis has done as Speaker. More people know of that then they do of Brannon's problems, but when the TV is wall to wall cut UI, tax cuts for the rich, cut education, rejected Medicaid expansion etc etc etc, his numbers can still drop more.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Rick Berg is no more of a Senator then Todd Akin is.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Woody White is now on the air in the Raleigh market attacking Rouzer for being a Pro-Amnesty Republican. He has got another one that seems to be just him introducing himself.


I also saw an ad that shocked me. One by Keith Crisco attacking Clay Aiken as "No Show Clay" for not showing up to the board he was appointed to deadling with special needs kids. Looks the Dem Primary for NC-02 is going to get dirty.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Getting on honest answer that with Russia dominating the news, from a politician is near impossible. They are just going to go with the one that is blowing stuff up today on the evening news.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Grant's only good part of the debate was the closing, and it was barely mediocre. She should have emphasized that she is the only candidate who cannot be distracted from the key issues by legislative bs, business dealings and for Harris, his Amendment 1 campaign. She could have done much better on the pre-existing conditions question, especially once she referenced her son I think, the lost potential was obvious. She needed a standout performance and didn't get it.

Of course her message was nonexistant and lacked the necessary depth. They all sucked on their immigration responses, falling for the deport them all trap, perhaps they think it safer then enforcement by attrition.

I think Tillis was the best performer as he was the only one to really make a case against Hagan and he cast his legislative record as positive. He did basically tell the coast that they were on there own in dealing with rising ocean levels, so expect that in Hagan's ads. I think Harris did second best. Combined with his advertising, I think Tillis-Harris runoff, is more likely now then it was maybe a week ago. Still two weeks to go though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I was wondering how Roche was doing. He did well in the forum where Ellmers was a no show on WRAL's on the record. He did far better on immigration then did any of the Republican candidates in the debate for Senate did, for instance. It is easy to see why Ellmers skipped it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The other candidates missed their chance to gain traction.


I watched the lower tier candidate's debate on WRAL. The biggest stand out was Jim Snyder, not Ted Alexander. When asked how he would fund increase support for the military and families of military vets, he said, "The best way is to not go to war, we spent trillions of dollars in Iraq just so [Bush] could be a wartime President...".

He also actually answered the question about sea levels threatening the coast as opposed to ducking to the talking points about not knowing the exact cause stating, "Can you really gamble the planet on an uncertainty".

Also Snyder was the only candidate either in the top tier or lower tier that said it was impossible to deport all the illegals, then he endorsed a path to legalization without citizenship. At least he started good. He did make a compelling arguement that because the Federal government's failures, they are to blame for the situation not the illegals themselves, which I actually do agree with him on.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I did like one of Bradshaw's answers, "the top tier are the most unelectable".

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I wonder which is more despised in this district, trial lawyer or lobbyist? I am surprised by the number of ads, but considering the nature of the campaign and with the primary likely to be the general election, it makes sense for them to go all out.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

^ Yeah, the election is basically decided next week.

Just curious, who are you voting for?

I sent in my ballot yesterday, but didn't have many interesting races to vote in.  

I don't even know if I will be able to to vote. Our one window is on Saturday and that is only if we can get a ride, and it is not topping my mom's priority list right now.

I am not sure.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It seems the in thing is to accuse people in NC politics of protecting/defending child predators. I got malers today attacking Woody White for defending them in court paid for by YG Network, ever heard of them?

Also some group is running ads attacking one of the State Supreme Court Justices for siding with Predators.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Early voting ended on Saturday and I couldn't get a ride. Tuesday looks dicey and I cannot seem to get anyone to care about the matter even long enough to hold a conversation about it, more or less get them to arrange transportation.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If I can get to the polls I am probably voting for White over Rouzer.  I voted for Rouzer last time because I thought that Pantano was a weak candidate to go against McIntyre. But Rouzer, despite bring from the same country as myself, is not only weak on amnesty, but also a former lobbyist and a protege of Jesse Helms. Three strikes...

I have finally gotten my mother to take a look at the primary and particularly the Senate race and seems to be leaning towards Ted Alexander. I still have no idea who vote for and have a better feel for county commission then for Senate.

I cannot stand Tillis and think his own scandal will doom him, Brannon is hobbled by the same thing as well as gaffe potential, and Harris is a Huckabee type. I might just throw the vote on one of the lower tier types as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Utter train wreck today. They took us to wrong precinct and they were more then determined to make sure we didn't vote at all, then to vote provisional.

We voted provisional in the primary runoff in 2012 and they didn't treat us like this. So they probably just put our votes in the damn trash considering how much of an imposition the treated us as. Only people in the damn location in the middle town in the afternoon, I mean god forbid we delayed the hundreds of people who were not lined up outside.

Then we had to back out of a parking spot to leave and this damn car with an Obama/Biden sticker was in a no parking zone blocking the path and to make matters worse the vehicle we were in kept stalling and my mom had to get to work.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I guess I am sort of pleased by the result, but I must say I have really lost touch with the Congressional elections across the board.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

NC-Sen: Politico on how Hagan is holding on:

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You have got to be kidding me.

Besides Rubio, when as has a state house leader not been a complete disaster statewide. Berg, That dude in Kentucky, Tillis.

That said the combination of mediscare tactics which soured me on McIntyre in 2010 and the tax cuts to ship jobs overseas tactic of Kissell in 2010 has only made me dislike Hagan even more, if Amnesty and Obamacare weren't enough.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Miles I know its painful, but where is my damn NC maps?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Democrats will likely have a Keystone XL vote, the goal being to help Landrieu.

Miles I know its painful, but where is my damn NC maps?

I'm getting there. To give you some context, I haven't even brought myself to watch Tillis' victory speech yet

He gave a victory speech?

I saw a clip, "The only thing the gov't can give you without taking something from someone else, is your freedom".  

You don't need to see it if you have followed him the past four years.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Watching Landrieu this afternoon on C-Span 2 (first time in six years I have watched Congress/Senate live), I must say that this is not the Senator Landrieu I remembered in 2005, 2006 and 2007. She sounded desperate and tried to run against Mitch McConnell as if he was already Majority Leader and whip up some kind of outrage because Cornyn listed Keystone as a proposal for next year and McConnell didn't mention it with regards to the lame duck session a day or two ago.

Granted I didn't see the comments she was referring to but I would assume that Republicans were focusing on what could get done and until last night it was rather unlikely that Keystone would be any more viable then repealing Obamacare prior to January.

Landrieu's delivery on centrism came off as bland and she decried the entry of politics into the equation, yet there was not a single aspect of her remarks from the McConnell thing to the meandering praise/critcism/praise/criticism for Senator Markey (who proceeded to talk about Mayor Menino's legacy not Keystone) and finally the issue itself that was not touched by the fact that she is up for reelection next month and the inauthenticity that her remarks reaked of bare that out.

If this is her "Hail Mary" pass, it looks far more like McCain suspending his campaign in 2008 to "Fix the economy" as if it were some kind of foreign policy crisis, only to look like an out of the loop and uninformed dinosaur, then an October November surprise that will avert Landrieu's defeat.

She also kept running over her time and asked at one point how much time she had left. I could thing of only one proper response:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPX48NpSRvo

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am reminded of what Jim Gerlach said after 2006 on C-Span about how he had a bill on some issue that would garner Democratic support but he was repeatedly told or Democratic members were told, "You cannot work on a bill with Jim, he is our top target in 2006".

Landrieu is now the top targetted Democrat, the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent between now and 2018 and thus is feeling that a thousand times over. I would hate to be in her position of being regarded as litterally a dead woman walking. The Democrats aren't doing much to help her and Republicans are pretending she doesn't exist (they did mention Bill Cassidy several times though). I think that is exemplified of how much Democrats have given up on saving her and thus not willing to risk even the slightest agnering of the donors/base to give her some help. I think Manchin spoke earlier but that was it, maybe Tester as well.

Also I believe Manchin voted against a judge appointee earlier, the only one to join with the Republicans in doing so.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Landrieu's giving a speech on C-SPAN 2 on Keystone XL atm. Can't quite tell if it's great or a train wreck. She does seem pretty pissed and exacerbated at her fellow Dems.

It is not as bad as it was earlier when she wanted to tear Markey a new one, but then decided to be the nice centrist, then decided to criticis him before finally praising him once again. SHe is pissed at everybody. Its almost like an old dixiecrat running against both parties, "not a dime's worth of difference...".

Landrieu on possibility of a veto is wishful thinking, "If the Senate does a bit better, maybe the hosue will do a bit better and thne maybe the White House will as well".

She did pledge to vote to override a veto.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I guess Mary is committed to die as she lived: voting like a Republican. Good riddance, looking forward to the President vetoing this nonsense.

$1 billion in Hollywood and Enviromentalist donations for Hillary and Dem candidates > LA Class II, the Dem's last Reconstruction seat.


Switched over to the House on C-Span, Waxman not too concerned about Landrieu. Sounded rather dismissive.

"Maybe everybody in LA is for it, but..."

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

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What was the point in Pryor and Landrieu vote Aye? 68 was not going to motivate the House anymore then 66 and and would have created more distance for those two between them and Obama with them already under the gun for an aye vote on Obamacare. Hagan and Begich should have voted no as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

1 damn vote.


I think Bennet, Carper, Kaine and King were the votes that decided it.


Assuming the Democrats don't defect, it should pass 62-38 in January.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Udall --> Gardner
Rockefeller --> Capito
Johnson --> Rounds
Harkin --> Ernst

Assuming the other Democrats hold, then the GOP should be able to get 63 next Congress.

Bennet voted yes. That surprised me.

For some reason I thought it said he voted Nay.  And yes it will be 63, I forgot about Johnson.