PA-8: Fitzpatrick retiring

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Jim Cawley starts out there favorite. After 2012, I think Murphy is pretty much a spent force.

Also, hasn't Bucks been trending R relative to state? It used to be right in line with the state, but now it seems to have become slightly more Republican. I think Romney did better than he did statewide and I think Corbett did as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Corbett 45-54 PA
        48-52 Bucks  5% more R 

Romney 47-52         
       49-50 Bucks   4% more R

Corbett 54-45 PA
        55-45 Bucks  1% more R

McCain 44-54 PA
       45-54        ~1% more R

Bush 48-51 PA        0% more R
     48-51 Bucks

Left out Rendell because his numbers across the SE were just crazy.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wondeer who will run for the Dems. Perhaps Steve Santarsiero? Regardless, though, PA-08 should stay in GOP hands. Fitzpatrick won Bucks County in '06 of all years, Bucks County has trended right of late, and the accompanying slice of MontCo post-redistricting is bright red.

Because he was a popular incumbent.

lol a one term incumbent who won his first election when his predecessor withdrew just before filing deadline, with him filing instead and leaving him to face a sacrificial lamb in a Kerry district.

Yes, Fitzpatrick is a solid candidate, but there was a limited incumbency advantage at best in 2006. More like the advantage an appointed Senator would have as opposed to the standard incumbency advantage.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wondeer who will run for the Dems. Perhaps Steve Santarsiero? Regardless, though, PA-08 should stay in GOP hands. Fitzpatrick won Bucks County in '06 of all years, Bucks County has trended right of late, and the accompanying slice of MontCo post-redistricting is bright red.

Because he was a popular incumbent.

Yeah, and? We always run popular officeholders here in Southeastern PA. We'll see a Bucks County commissioner or a State Senator move up. They're going to be a de-facto incumbent from day 1.

Plus the Republicans will be flooding Bucks country with every resource they have for Toomey's sake. I wouldn't even be surprised to see it vote Republican for President, though at the very least it will be close.