The amount of counties Trump has won or looks likely to win in the supposedly super liberal New England is mindboggling:
Washington, ME
Aroostook, ME
Penobscot, ME
Piscataquis, ME
Somerset, ME
Franklin, ME
Kennebec, ME
Androscoggin, ME
Oxford, ME
Coos, NH
Carroll, NH
Belknap, NH
Sullivan, NH
Rockingham, NH
Essex, VT
Kent, RI
Windham, CT
Litchfield, CT
Upstate New York is a similar story...
And Eastern IA/Driftless ILL, West WI etc. Sam Spade and I discussed this on AAD back in January, that Trump could resurrect as a GOP demographic what are now secular, working class voters in these various areas.
It is an odd coalition to combine massive Evangelical support with the secular "Simpsons demographic" to produce a winning combination. Reagan was the last one to put that together and since then it has been downhill for the GOP among the latter group (simultaneous with the loss of secular upscale suburbanites). Trump's nationalist economic message is more appealing to those voters be it infrastructure, trade skepticism etc, then binge drinking neo-liberalism/libertarianism. Heretofore the GOP did not have anything to offer these voters, because on social issues, religion has rapidly declined among this group in the 20th century. They are historically skeptical of foreign intervention (think Robert Taft) and on economics the GOP operated as if it was nation of just small business owners. Prior to Reagan you had the pro-infrastructure of Ike, historic Trade protectionism from the GOP's founding, and so forth that provided an economic argument that appealed to these voters.
Trump is the first time in decades that a GOP candidate has rather than trying to assert some theoretical template recreating Reagan verbatim, Trump went to these voters where they are. They hate Washington, they hate corruption, they hate war, they think trade has destroyed their jobs/schools (lack of tax base), without doing much to help them at all except promise more instability (Bank deregulation, etc), wars and corruption. Trump gave them a sledge hammer and they slammed it into D.C.
So the GOP is winning many counties it has not won since the 1980's.
That said, this election would not have been possibly without strong support from traditional elements of the GOP coalition including Evangelicals. Mike Pence I think was key to offering up that message because Trump needed trusted messenger and it just so happened that the vacancy on the Supreme Court provided the perfect wedge issue for Pence to get them out to the polls with. It is probably likely that if Scalia were alive, Clinton would be President. Perhaps those who were dancing on his grave last winter, will consider that fact. Mike Pence was also probably one of the most politically consequential VP picks in history.
Evans % GOP Evan %
2004 23% 78%
2012 26% 78%
2016 26% 81%
This is probably the peak of Evangelical voting power in the US.
Candidate quality only matters if one candidate is flawed. Both were. Issues trumped candidate quality and cultural identity/class while it can trump issues, is most forcefully demonstrated when they go together. Evengelicals-Court, Secular WWC - Trade.
