Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is your party, Republicans

Y'all keep saying that, yet these kind of candidates (Moore, Trump) keep winning.

Yes, that's...that's the problem.

And a problem that you guys need to fix. Democrats kick out terrible incumbents. (Chaka Fattah, Corrine Brown, Bill Jefferson) Republicans re-elect them - even pre-Trump. (Scott DesJarlais, Michael Grimm, Darrell Issa, Sam Brownback)

Oh really?

Democrats didn't ask Bill Jefferson to step down. He got thrown out by the voters. He got a standing ovation from Pelosi and her caucus, after the corruption was revealed. So much for "throwing him out". She ran against corruption to gain the majority, then shielded and protected those in her own caucus who got caught with their hands in the cookie jar.

Charlie Rangel kept running and winning for years, despite multiple scandals.

Bob Menendez was reelected in 2012, despite the current scandal already being public.

Democrats historically have circled the wagons, in many such instances.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

....who do you think were the people that voted out Bill Jefferson

A coalition composed of Republicans, Independents and reasonable Democrats who voted for a rather Liberal Republican in a very low turnout election.

December 2008, LA-02 General Election
Republican   Joseph Cao   33,122   49.6
Democratic   William J. Jefferson   31,296   46.8

Orleans Parish 2008 Presidential:
Barack H. Obama   Joseph R. Biden, Jr.   Democratic   117,102   79.42%
John S. McCain, III   Sarah Palin   Republican   28,130   19.08%

Orleans Parish 2007 Governor:
John Georges   No Party Affiliation   27,370   36.07%
Bobby Jindal   Republican   26,278   34.63%
Walter Boasso   Democratic   15,359   20.24%

Orleans Parish 2003 Governor
Kathleen Babineaux Blanco   Democrat   92,746   68.32%
Bobby Jindal   Republican   43,005   31.68%

The 2008 House elections were delayed in two races because of a Hurricane. LA had abandoned their jungle primary system for a period. So they had the primary in Sept, runoff in Oct and general in November. But the Hurricane forced the two house elections to be pushed back until December 2008.

So it was low turnout "Special" (though it was technically the general election for those seats). Had it occurred in November, I am fairly certain that Jefferson would have won.

And Jefferson's scandal began in late 2005. Yet he was reelected in 2006 57%-42% over another Democrat.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

But if fairness, the scandal hadn't truly blown open until after 06.

Does anyone truly believe a +30 R district would elect a Democrat if the incumbent was involved in such a scandal?

No. It could elect Libertarian or even Constitutional party candidate (or another far rightist), but - not a Democrat...

When has that ever happened?

Republican Ron Packard won as write-in, in what is basically now Darrell Issa's seat in 1982, against a controversial GOP nominee and a Democrat. Of course back then it was like 65%-70% Republican.

The answer is of course no. Just like Jefferson would have won easily in LA-02 in November 2008 (had it not been delayed), such a district would elect the Republican, unless it was a low turnout or off year race.