NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[tokar]

Philly almost in...

83.4% reporting
Sestak 293k (82.5%)
Toomey 62k (17.6%)
Total = 355k

Est total will be over 420k.

[tokar]

Philly:

86.96% reporting
Sestak 308k (82.7%)
Toomey 64k (17.3%)
Total = 372k

Est total will be over 428k.

[tokar]

Philly:

91.4% reporting
Sestak 324k (83.24%)
Toomey 65.1k (16.7%)
Total = 389k

Est total will be over 427k.

[tokar]

Philly:

93.42% reporting
Sestak 332.6k (83.5%)
Toomey 65.5k (16.5%)
Total = 398k

Est total will be over 427k.

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84+% clip.

[tokar]

Philly:

94.61% reporting
Sestak 340k (83.74%)
Toomey 65.9k (16.2%)
Total = 406k

Est total will be over 429k!

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84+% clip.

[tokar]

Philly:

95.55% reporting
Sestak 343.6k (83.86%)
Toomey 65.9k (16.1%)
Total = 410k

Est total will be over 429k!

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84+% clip.

[tokar]

Philly:

96.03% reporting
Sestak 345.1k (83.92%)
Toomey 66.0k (16.04%)
Total = 410k

Est total will be over 429k!

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84+% clip.

[tokar]

Philly:

96.74% reporting
Sestak 347.2k (83.97%)
Toomey 66.1k (15.99%)
Total = 413k

Est total will be over 429k!

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84.11% clip.

[tokar]

Philly:

94.61% reporting
Sestak 340k (83.74%)
Toomey 65.9k (16.2%)
Total = 406k

Est total will be over 429k!

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84+% clip.

A good clip of Lancaster County is still out, among other places

Montgomery is reporting under 30%.
Lehigh under 60%
Delaware still has 10% to go.
Allegheny at 99.2%


Philadelphia up to the minute:

97.21% reporting
Sestak 348.5k (83.98%)
Toomey 66.3k (15.98%)
Total = 415k

Est total will be over 429k!

Side note:
Casey pulled 424k at an 84+% clip.

[tokar]

MontCo just jumped to 60%.

Sestak went from +7k to +15k advantage there.

[tokar]

I believe this one is over.  Toomey looks like the victor here.

The Toomey lead keeps increasing bit by bit.  MontCo is at 59.07%, yes, but I don't see Sestak picking up 19k votes from the remaining 40+%.

[tokar]

As I mentioned long ago...

The path to victory in PA is either...
Super-overperformance in Philadelphia (over 500,000 votes at +80%), and Pittsburgh and very few other counties.
Very good performance in Philadelphia (over 400,000 votes at +80%), and Pittsburgh and several counties
Good performance in Philadelphia (over 300,000 votes at +80%), and Pittsburgh and very many other counties.

Unfortunately Sestak falls in none of the three.
He had very good performance in Philadelphia (over 429k at 84.1%! which pretty much eclipses Casey's performance), did alright in Pittsburgh (over 408k at 55%, but doesnt match Casey's 459k at 64.9%), but didn't win enough other counties.

If anyone had any doubts about Montgomery county being democratic, it is erased with this election.  Depending on how you equate things, Montgomery is either the 3rd or 4th most democratic county in PA (i say that because Delaware shows greater margins, but has fewer voters).

[tokar]

Toomey is up by 4 points.

He is only up by 0.7.

MSNBC says 52-48 (1.86mil to 1.73mil), but PA Election returns says 50.7-49.7 (1.9mil to 1.85mil).

[tokar]

MontCo is finished, 100% in.  They should call PA soon/now.

Sestak won MontCo 54.1-45.9 (+8.2%, +23.6k).