Top House Targets in 2010

[tokar]

Until the PA Democratic party gets serious about winning PA-06, Gerlach is in no danger.
Gerlach's margin of victory for the past 4 elections:
2002: +2.8 (51.4-48.6)
2004: +2.0 (51.0-49.0)
2006: +1.2 (50.6-49.4)
2008: +4.2 (52.1-47.9)

Serious question:
How does redistricting work?  Do they redistrict BEFORE the elections every decade?  or does it not happen until the election 2 years after the census?
In other words, in the case of PA (which is expected to lose 1ECV in 2010 due to the census) will there be 19 house elections in 2010 or will there be 18 house elections in 2010?

If there will be 19, which means PA-06 will still exist as it is currently for all intents and purposes, and if that is the case, they really REALLY need to get a serious candidate to run against Gerlach.

Bob Roggio was a junko candidate who had no political experience and garnered little money from donors.  In an election where there was a democratic wave, and in an election where the house district resided almost entirely in counties which went overwhelmingly to Obama (Montgomery+20, Berks+10, Chester+9) it frankly is quite embarrassing for the PA Democratic party that he lost.  It really is...

Lois Murphy was no better either.  2006 was a bigger democratic wave and yet she lost by 1.2%.

The PA Democratic party needs to look for a serious democratic challenger in the district and they need to get the ball rolling on spreading his name.  Bob Roggio only started campaigning after he won the primary in April.  They need a name...a big name.  And frankly I have no clue who it would be.  But until they do, PA-06 will not be a target unfortunately.  Bob Roggio was a last minute candidate who, yes, was endorsed by Obama, but was barely supported by the DSCC (compare this to Tinklenberg in MN-06 against Michelle Bachmann).  I think that the DSCC would have been better quipped to spend heavily in PA-06 which is actually rated a D+2 PVI where as MN-06 is rated a R+5 PVI.


edit:
If you haven't already realized, I vote in PA-06.