NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[cinyc]

WA:
Murray +14,005 (50.5% v 49.5%), with 62% reporting
King County only 55% in.


AK:
Write-ins (Murkowski) +7,242 (39.4% v 35.3%) with 70% reporting

What's out in AK is largely in the Bush - which only can help Murkowski (Native Associations backed her).  Plus, bush precincts are generally smaller, meaning fewer votes to begin with.  Again, as long as Alaskans can spell her name, Murkowski wins.

[cinyc]

So, it looks like 243-192 now.

A net gain of 64 for the Republicans. I predicted +67 for them.

CA-11 will likely flip to the Dems, given what's out.
CA-20 is bizarre - supposedly only 3 precincts of the Republican-leaning county is in with 40K votes.
WA-02 looks like it will hold for the Republican, given what is out.

64 sounds like the magic number.  Give Torie a prize!

[cinyc]

Djou losing and Ambercrombie crushing Aiona in the HI-Gov race should teach us all one thing:

Never trust a Hawai'i poll done by a Haole from the mainland.

[cinyc]

I think the problem with Oberstar was age and how long he had been in office. That's one of the seats they should win back in 2012 if the environment is even slightly better.

Except, as BRTD said, the district might not exist in 2012 - and probably won't exist in its current form, given population shifts.

[cinyc]

Is there any state where gerrymandering is important, that the Dems totally control? Did the GOP win back the NY senate? Apparently, the GOP probably did take back the NY state senate.

Maybe, Torie.  We don't know for sure.  The Westchester County Board of Elections is so incompetent that they are only reporting 75% of the county's vote right now.  They show the Democrat leading by 180 with 80% in.  The AP has a tally supposedly showing the Republican in that race up by 2300 with 81% in.

[cinyc]

Alvin Greene got more vote for US Senate than Sharon Angle.

That doesn't mean much.  South Carolina's population is almost double that of Nevada's.

[cinyc]

Is there any state where gerrymandering is important, that the Dems totally control? Did the GOP win back the NY senate? Apparently, the GOP probably did take back the NY state senate.

Maybe, Torie.  We don't know for sure.  The Westchester County Board of Elections is so incompetent that they are only reporting 75% of the county's vote right now.  They show the Democrat leading by 180 with 80% in.  The AP has a tally supposedly showing the Republican in that race up by 2300 with 81% in.

b

Both parties appear to believe that the GOP won both the Long Island and  Buffalo seats, giving the GOP 32 seats, no matter how Westchester turns out, and the GOP needs to win only one of the two seats that it is thought that they will probably win to get a 31-31 tie in the NY State Senate. Am I missing something here Cinyc?

I agree about the LI seat, but I'm a little surprised that the Dems think they lost the Buffalo seat.  The Erie County Board of Elections' last numbers had the Dem up by 2,500 - though the AP count differs.  I guess the Erie County Board of Elections is almost as incompetent as Westchester's.  Having only 75% of the vote in the on the next day is inexcusable - almost Bridgeport-level inexcusable.

[cinyc]

They'll probably have to let McIntyre live if they want Ellmers to stay. There's not a whole lot you can do with NC-11, unless you turn it into a bizarre squidlike district. Kissell, however, is probably going to be screwed.

Who would really care about creating one more bizarre squid-like district in North Carolina?  North Carolina is already the king of bizarre squid-like districts - putting even Texas to shame.

[cinyc]

Alaska

99% reporting

Write-Ins lead by 13588 (6.8%). It is likely to estimate than a sufficient share of them are for Murkowski.

As usual, no borough results in Alaska.

You will NEVER see a borough-level map of Alaska.  The state reports by House Districts, which sometimes straddle borough/CDP lines.  Even some precincts straddle the lines.

I will put up a map of Alaska by HD when all the precincts report, probably by tonight, Alaska Time.  Last I checked, they were at 432/438.  Miller and McAdams got absolutely pummeled in the bush HDs (37-40).

[cinyc]

Is there any state where gerrymandering is important, that the Dems totally control? Did the GOP win back the NY senate? Apparently, the GOP probably did take back the NY state senate.

Maybe, Torie.  We don't know for sure.  The Westchester County Board of Elections is so incompetent that they are only reporting 75% of the county's vote right now.  They show the Democrat leading by 180 with 80% in.  The AP has a tally supposedly showing the Republican in that race up by 2300 with 81% in.

b

Both parties appear to believe that the GOP won both the Long Island and  Buffalo seats, giving the GOP 32 seats, no matter how Westchester turns out, and the GOP needs to win only one of the two seats that it is thought that they will probably win to get a 31-31 tie in the NY State Senate. Am I missing something here Cinyc?

I agree about the LI seat, but I'm a little surprised that the Dems think they lost the Buffalo seat.  The Erie County Board of Elections' last numbers had the Dem up by 2,500 - though the AP count differs.  I guess the Erie County Board of Elections is almost as incompetent as Westchester's.  Having only 75% of the vote in the on the next day is inexcusable - almost Bridgeport-level inexcusable.

They must know where the missing precincts are in Erie County, I guess.

Ah - I see what I did - looked at Erie but not Niagara County.  All is in now.  The Republican is ahead by 468 going into absentees.  That will likely hold.

You can thank Paladino's coattails for that pickup - too the extent coattails even exits.

Westchester is still stuck on 80%.

[cinyc]

Delaware has a fancy new results map:

http://delaware-ms.esri.com/ElectionResults/

(Amusingly, the IPOD guy that ran against Beau and got 21% won a single precinct in Sussex.)

Excellent map.  Perhaps the IPOD quy lives in that Sussex precinct?

It's funny how these southern-ish states put the Northeast and much of the Midwest to shame when it comes to election result reporting.  We don't even have full results in in parts of New York yet.

[cinyc]

Is NY-25 still a possible R pickup?

Possible?  Yes.  Actually, it's likely now.  The last precincts came in, and the Republican is 659 votes ahead.

[cinyc]

Is Himes' seat in doubt again after the CT mess?

Probably not, but who knows?  The AP rescinded its call in the CT-Gov Race but not CT-04, as far as I know.  

Heck, I'm not even sure Bridgeport has counted the CT-04 votes.  Apparently, they sometimes photocopied ballots when they ran out, and had to hand-count them.   BTW - if they just photocopied ballots, why did the polls have to remain open for another 2 hours, exactly? Elections in third-world banana republics are run better.

[cinyc]

There is reasonably strong evidence after 2006-10 that Colorado has become a left-leaning state in general.  It's very different from VA or FL or OH, which all voted for Obama then had a pronounced swing back to the GOP.  There was no swing back in CO, indicating that the state as a whole has shifted left over the past 4 years. I think that is what this guy is getting at.  It's very premature to say that Bennet has the seat for life, but it's pretty logical to say that the Dems here have a better than 50% chance in any major CO race for the forseeable future.  I mean Hickenlooper broke 50% against two opponents for goodness sake!   

There was no swing back in Colorado?   Colorado Republicans won back the state House, CO-03 and CO-04.  They came close to taking over a Senate seat with a weak candidate (who received a greater percentage of the vote than McCain), and would have had a chance to win back the governorship with someone other than Maes.

The Colorado GOP is not dead.  Bennet doesn't have his seat for life.  Colorado is not Massachusetts.

[cinyc]

After Angle, now it's Buck's time to become a "weak candidate".
Weren't you guys defending them until a couple of days ago?

I will still defend Angle and Buck as stronger than their primary opponents.  Lowden would have lost, too - she couldn't even beat Angle in the primary, and was particularly gaffe-prone.  Norton couldn't beat Buck.  Castle in Delaware didn't take his primary seriously - and lost.  Had he done the same in the general, he would have lost, too. 

If you can't get out of the primary, you're probably not going to do so well in the general election, anyway. 

The fact is that Colorado is still a swing state.  No Colorado Senator is set for life - and that's a good thing.

[cinyc]

Here are the Alaska maps of the winner by State House District, with Anchorage and Fairbanks insets.  All data is preliminary, with at least some early vote totals in the HDs where early voting is available, but no absentees.  Miller is in blue, "Write-in" green and McAdams red:

Statewide:


Anchorage/Mat-Su close-up:


Fairbanks close-up:


Basically, Democrat McAdams won the urban Juneau district (one of the most Democratic-leaning in the state), Downtown Anchorage and, due to a Miller-Murkowski split, the outer Kenai Peninsula HD-35.  Miller cleaned up in the Mat-Su exurbs of Anchorage and the other two main Kenai HDs, and narrowly lead "Write-in" in parts of Fairbanks.  "Write-in" - most likely Murkowski - won the rest, particularly bush HDs 37-40, where she took 60-70% of the vote.  

HD-02 in the Southeast was close, and might flip to McAdams if only a handful of write-ins are not for Murkowski or otherwise disqualified.  HD-17 in Eagle River was also close, between "Write In" and Miller.  A few HDs in the Fairbanks area were also close.

[cinyc]

HD-02 in the Southeast was close, and might flip to McAdams if only a handful of write-ins are not for Murkowski or otherwise disqualified.

HD-02 is McAdams's home district and contains Sitka. I rather hope he wins it in the end.

McAdams cleaned up in Sitka but lost Republican-leaning Petersburg and Wrangell.

I can map HDs 01-32 at the precinct level when I get a chance.

[cinyc]

Did Joe Miller win Wasilla?

Yes, both precincts.

With over 50% of the vote.

In fact, Miller won every precinct in Mat-Su borough except City of Palmer No. 1 and Talkeetna, which tend to skew more Democratic than the rest of the borough.  "Write-in" won Palmer No. 1.  McAdams won hippie Talkeetna.

[cinyc]

7 is fairly surprising imo.  I expected Maffei, McMahon, Bishop, and Murphy to win.

It's kind of hard to believe that Republicans would be stuck at holding only 2 NY CDs forever.  Especially when certain districts (NY-20, in particular) were Gerrymandered to elect Republicans (in contrast with NY-22, which is Gerrymandered to keep Hinchey in office).   With President Bush out of office, there's no reason for NY CDs not to revert to their pro-Republican tendencies of the recent past.  Even NY-04 was closer than usual, reverting back to the margins McCarthy last received in 1998.

[cinyc]

And Costa takes a 1,200 vote lead in CA-20, so this one is over.

Why?  Are there no votes left to count from Kings County?

[cinyc]

If Bishop wins, and the Pubbie prevails in NY-25, which is still quite likely, but a bit more problematical than it was (the Dems have done well with the absentee ballots in Syracuse, and slashed the Pubbies lead substantially, but a third of what remains to be counted is from heavily GOP Wayne), my 63 seat "prediction" of Pubbie gains will be well, exactly right.  Pity about NY-1 though from my perspective. The Pubbie seems like someone "we" need.

Great analysis Smash in any event. Thanks.

An outsourcing millionaire is someone the GOP needs??

Well, if Bishop loses, Alec Baldwin claims he will run in 2012.  A Hollyweird moron running for the Democrats Is something Pubbies need - though I doubt that's what Torie was thinking.

[cinyc]

Buerkle ends up with a 567-vote lead after all the votes have been counted.

With only 240 challenged ballots left outstanding, it's hard to see how Buerkle can lose this.

[cinyc]

NY-25, CA-11 and CA-20 are over even if the AP won't call them for whatever reason. NY-01 is the only one truly still up in the air (and only barely so).

Maffei just conceded.  The AP will undoubtedly call NY-25 as a Republican pickup now.  

That leaves CA-11, CA-20 and NY-01.  It's pretty clear all three will remain with the Democrats when the counting is completed.

[cinyc]

Michael Barone's ethno-geographic take on the mid-term election results:
In 2010 sweep, even the Finns voted Republican

[cinyc]

Michael Barone's ethno-geographic take on the mid-term election results:
In 2010 sweep, even the Finns voted Republican

Once he gets down to the ethnic part of it, his analysis stinks. Hispanics voting only "narrowly" Democratic in Texas? Try looking at the gubernatorial results again. Hispanic turnout just sucks in off years, so they got outvoted in seats that are drawn to only just barely favor their preferred candidates. Finns "voted Republican"? Look at the county breakdown of MN-08. Hint: The Finnish areas voted for Oberstar overwhelmingly, as usual. But, again, they were outvoted.

His analysis is like looking at Sanford Bishop's seat and wondering why blacks nearly voted for a Republican.

While it is true that many of the most Finnish counties in the Lake Superior CDs still went Democratic, the Democrats' overall margin was down from Obama's in 2008.  For example, in Minnesota, Cook County voted 60-37 for Obama but only 55-40 for Oberstar; Lake County 60-38 for Obama and only 55-42 for Oberstar; Saint Louis County 65-33 for Obama and 57-40 Oberstar; and Carlton County 62-36 Obama and 54-43 Oberstar. 

At least in the current draft of the article, Barone said Texas Hispanics voted "mildly" Democratic, not "narrowly" Democratic.  Mildly is in the eye of the beholder - but according to the Texas Gubernatorial Exit Poll, Texas Hispanics voted 61-38 for Democrat White.  In comparison, African-American Texans voted 88-11% for the Democrat, and Hispanic Nevadans voted 69-30% for Harry Reid.  Moreover, White's support among male Texas Hispanics was under 60%, at 58-41%.