US House Redistricting: Michigan

[cinyc]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

The 2009  estimates for Detroit (910,921) and Wayne County (1,925,848) really stunk.  Especially Detroit.

[cinyc]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

The 2009  estimates for Detroit (910,921) and Wayne County (1,925,848) really stunk.  Especially Detroit.

Have census estimates historically been as notoriously bad as they were this decade?

I don't know.  I hope someone from the press asks that question at Thursday's press conference.  Estimates for some cities were real stinkers.  It's not just Detroit.

[cinyc]

One of the Pointes has a precinct in Macomb County. Poor guys don't deserve to be stuck with the Detroit districts year after year; I hate the idea of letting good Pubbies drown.

The Pointe that has a precinct in Macomb is Gross Pointe Shores.  It was two separate townships in 2000.  It incorporated as a city during the past decade.  Its population is relatively small, though - about 3,000.

Michigan has a few other cities that straddled county lines in 2000.  Are there special rules for cities that straddle county lines?  Can they be placed in either county, or do they need to be broken up?

[cinyc]

I seriously doubt the legislation was sufficiently thought-through to account for such municipalities.

Well, there are a number of them, including the state capital of Lansing, which is mainly in Ingham but also part in Eaton County.  I know this in part because it screws up the labels on my forthcoming population change maps.

[cinyc]

the Pubbies may be totally unleashed if they can draw two black VAP 50% CD's, but need to go where convenient to do it, like into Washtenaw or the SW corner of Macomb, or whatever.

Washtenaw is about 12% African American according to the discredited 2009 data (40,000 African-Americans) and McCotter's district lies between there and Detroit. It may well be that the future is as you imagine it, a Republican boot stamping on a Democratic face forever, but it's conceivable that not as many teeth will get knocked out. We shall see.

Eh - that estimate was actually accurate, for once.   Washtenaw is 12.5% non-Hispanic black with approximately 43,000 African Americans.  That's barely up from 12.2% non-Hispanic black in 2000 with about 39,000 African Americans.  The black population fell by about 12.6% in Ann Arbor.  It rose in the surrounding townships.

[cinyc]

Wouldn't MI-13 have to add that last precinct of Grosse Pointe Shores in Macomb County, due to the "minimize township splits" provision of the statute?  

I think it could go either way, but come to think of it, I think it is a good idea to absorb the one town that crosses over into Macomb in to MI12, and in exchange, MI-13 could take a few more Dem precincts in Warren. Doing that much anyway, should be legally safe. That might generate a few basis points. I will try it.

Wait a minute. Gross Pointe Shores does not cross over. The lines on the Bradlee software imply that it does, but the city is wholly within Wayne, and that precinct that looks like it is Macomb, is Lake Township. So no, there is no cross over.

That precinct in Macomb WAS Lake Township until April 1, 2009.  It is now part of the city of the Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, along with the former Grosse Point Township in Wayne County.  It was part of the village of Grosse Pointe Shores prior to its incorporation as a city - but still a separate township.  Not any more.

[cinyc]

So you have zero black majority districts in a state that the VRA likely requires there be two?  It's probably a non-starter without adjusting some lines.

[cinyc]

Got a zoomin for the rape of Grand Rapids? We all know what line Lansing is being raped on.

The Detroit News map appears to show the city of Grand Rapids intact in proposed MI-03, with most of its immediate southern and western suburbs in proposed MI-02.

The city of Lansing proper isn't being raped.  The city is divided along county lines - as under the current map.   The overwhelming majority of the city's population and land is in Ingham County, anyway, not Eaton County.  Not dividing a county seems to trump not dividing a municipality under Michigan law.  The city of Grosse Pointe Shores appears to be split into two CDs, too, with the larger portion of that city in with Detroit and proposed MI-14 and the small portion in Macomb County in a Macomb-based district.