NY-11 Special Election Thread

[cinyc]

Staten Island Democrats continue to have their heads up their asses, refuse to take advantage of an issue that causes turnout to rise.

Jesus Christ, these people are incompetent.

No they're not. 

You and Libertas seem to think that only minority turnout will rise if Donovan's alleged mishandling of the Garner case is made the main issue in the NY-11 campaign, as if minorities live in a parallel universe where only they get to see the Democrats' attacks.  You seem to forget that every time Al Sharpton or Bill de Blasio or one of their surrogates shows up on TV demonizing Donovan, more of the cops and their families who live on Staten Island want to go out to vote for Donovan, too.  And there are more whites in NY-11 than minorities, so the math simply doesn't work.  According to Qunnipiac, only 41% of Staten Islanders thought charges should have been brought against the Garner cop in the first place.  It is a losing issue for Democrats to bring up.

[cinyc]

Donovan up 48/28 on Cusick...in a Democratic poll.

I take it back. Throw this away and push the Garner issue after Donovan wins to tarnish the GOP nationally. We ain't picking this up.

50% of NY-11 voters agree with the grand jury's decision in the Garner case.  Only 34% disagree.  Definitely not fertile material to push to get out those who disagree with Donovan's handling of the Garner case.  They're outnumbered.

[cinyc]

Donovan up 48/28 on Cusick...in a Democratic poll.

I take it back. Throw this away and push the Garner issue after Donovan wins to tarnish the GOP nationally. We ain't picking this up.

50% of NY-11 voters agree with the grand jury's decision in the Garner case.  Only 34% disagree.  Definitely not fertile material to push to get out those who disagree with Donovan's handling of the Garner case.  They're outnumbered.

Fairly sure you misunderstood my point. I'm not looking towards picking up NY-11 (considering Democrats are f**ked there). Nationally was the key word in that sentence.

No.  I understood your point.  I pointed out the polling data to support it.

Personally, I don't think the Donovan's handling of the Gardner case will reverberate anywhere outside of New York in two years, if even in NYC by then.  That's a long ways away.  It will be forgotten.

[cinyc]

Cusick is out.  The likely Democratic nominee will be Vincent Gentile, a Brooklyn city councilman.

NY-11 Democrats still haven't learned not to nominate Brooklynites in a district that's mainly on Staten Island.  And nominating a city councilman will give Donovan the ability to easily tie Gentile to de Blasio, who is very disliked in the district.

[cinyc]

Governor Cuomo has set the NY-11 special election for May 5.

[cinyc]

Has anyone polled this race yet?

BTW, Per the AP results page for this election, there's also a state assembly special election being held on the same day as the house race, in the 43rd assembly district.

It's a special election in a heavily Democratic Assembly District where the chosen Democrat has been kicked off the ballot due to a technicality.  Who will win it is anyone's guess.  There is someone running under the Republican, Working Families and IIRC, Independence lines, among others.

[cinyc]

With about half of the precincts reporting, Donovan is leading Gentile 58-40.  More of Staten Island is out than Brooklyn, too.  Stick a fork in Gentile.

[cinyc]

49% in, Donovan leading 58-40 but still no call. Difference of 2,000 and change.

24% in for State Assembly:

Richardson (WF): 63%
Patterson (I): 28%
Davis (I): 5%
Raitport (R): 4%

Richardson is leading Davis by ~400 votes.

The Republican is an Orthodox Jew, while the others are not.  Things could get interesting quick if there was block voting and the Orthodox precincts are still out.  Probably won't happen, though.

[cinyc]

So is that turnout about 10%?

let's see here...

New York State Population is ~19,750,000, and there are 29 congressional districts. Districts are supposed to be equal population, so one congressional district should be about 1/29 of the state population, which is ~681,035 people. 39,746 votes were cast last night (23,409 for Donovan, 15,808 for Gentile, and 527 for lane per http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/NY_Page_0505.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS .)

So, take 39,746/681,035, and we get 5.84% Turnout. Utterly Pathetic.

WTF? That's not how you calculate turnout. You do realize babies aren't allowed to vote, right? Stop making dumb posts you moderate bigot.

post edited, but quit following me around.

1) New York has 27 Congressional Districts, not 29.
2) That's not how you calculate turnout.  The number of votes cast divided by the number of registered voters is more relevant.  NY-11 had 375,256 active and 406,480 total registered voters as of 4/1/15.  39,875 votes were cast so far, including write-ins, invalid and blank votes.  That puts turnout at 10.7% of active and 9.8% of total registered voters, before absentee votes are counted.  The active voter number is probably more relevant.