The Delegate Fight: 2016

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Precinct CR 1 in Kossuth County, Precinct 5 in Hancock County, and Competine Township in Wapello County also did not report, but cannot make a difference in the final outcome.

It's possible that there were no Democratic caucus goers in those precincts.  They are rural, and there were barely any Republican votes tallied in all but Precinct 5 in Hancock County.  Only 5 Republican votes were tallied in CR 1, for example. 

In the Republican caucus, Indian Settlement in Tama County recorded no Republican votes according to the Microsoft map, which is also possible given how Native Americans tend to vote Democratic if they vote at all.

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Next contest up is the Virgin Islands GOP caucus, tomorrow (March 10); polls close at 5PM EST.

Apparently, some ex-Rand Paul guys are trying to use the Virgin Islands as their personal rotten borough, according to this Washington Examiner article.

More on the not-yet-validly registered voters (according to the voter registration authorities) potential USVI delegates here:
http://stthomassource.com/content/news/local-news/2016/03/09/new-gop-arrivals-removed-voter-lists-over-residency

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D.C. is the last contest of this cycle that is required to be proportional.  States have the option to use Winner-Take-All starting on Tuesday, and 4 of the 5 states voting that day use it at least on some level.

The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands is also voting on Tuesday - and the winner of the Republican presidential preference poll takes all 9 delegates there.  So it's 5 out of the 6 jurisdictions that use WTA on some level.  And the CNMI will be the first to do so, given the time difference.

[cinyc]

The court case regarding the Yobs' and Eilons' residency is continuing, I believe, separately from all this, and there was a ruling expected yesterday.  My guess is that it was in the Yobs' favor, which meant Canegata responded today with this desperate maneuver.

John Yob confirmed on his Twitter that he won the court case, though the ruling might have been made today instead of yesterday:

John Yob ‏@strategic  2h2 hours ago
Thank you to the judge who granted our injunction today and acknowledged there is no 90-day residency requirement.  #USVIGOP

[cinyc]

I thought the maximum suggested requirement for residency was 30 days in every state, but maybe the Virgin Islands set it longer?

Indeed, the U.S. Supreme Court in Dunn v. Blumstein has held that lengthy residency requirements are unconstitutional, suggesting 30 days is perhaps the maximum limit.  And all states have residency requirements of 30 days or less.  However, under the Insular Cases, the U.S. Constitution doesn't necessarily apply to the territories, so the U.S. Virgin Islands are arguably allowed to have a longer residency requirement as long as Congress doesn't proscribe them from doing so.  

The actual Virgin Islands law was vague on whether the 90-day residency requirement was measured from the general election date only, and irrelevant in determining whether someone was resident enough to vote in a party caucus.  The Virgin Islands court apparently found the latter, though we need more than a tweet from John Yob to be sure of the actual rationale of the court's ruling.  It could have been that, or it could have been that a 90-day residency requirement is unconstitutional, particularly for a presidential election, or it could have been that Yob was a resident for 90 days, anyway.

[cinyc]

According to Samoa News, the American Samoa Republican delegates are:
-Three at large: Chairman Utu Abe Malae, National Committeeman Su’a Carl Schuster and National Committeewoman Congresswoman Aumua Amata.
-The 6 delegates, Vice Chairman John Raynar, Taulapapa William Sword, Charles Warren, Treasurer Tina Ioane, Ann Longnecker and Joan Galea'i Holland.
-The six alternates - Jim Longnecker, Salote Schuster, Atonio Ioane, Lucia Bartley, John Laumatia and Roy Hall.

Raynar was in charge of the American Samoa pro-Trump group; Warren was in charge of the pro-Cruz forces in the territory.  That's probably why Erc has 1 delegate each for Cruz and Trump despite the delegation officially being uncommitted.

A picture of the delegates from the AS Republican Facebook page and reproduced in the Samoa News article shows 2 people wearing pro-Trump garb.  I think someone on RRH identified them as Congresswoman Amata and Treasurer Ioane.  Raynar would make 3 seemingly pro-Trump delegates selected at the caucus.

[cinyc]

There's another article about the American Samoa Convention in today's Samoa News.  All delegates are officially unbound, even the Trump and Cruz territorial chairs.  They say so in the article.