Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) (user search)
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  Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)  (Read 97807 times)
cinyc
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« on: March 01, 2016, 06:20:35 PM »
Quote from: Bigby on March 01, 2016, 06:14:41 PM
How many voters are asked these questions in the polls? I never get asked these questions after I vote.

Because you probably don't live in one of the handful of swing precincts hand chosen by Edison Research or whomever is conducting the network exit poll.  Decision Desk HQ had no idea in which precincts the network exit polls would be polling, but ended up picking some of the same precincts when they conducted their New Hampshire exit poll.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2016, 06:23:08 PM »
Quote from: Bigby on March 01, 2016, 06:21:06 PM
Quote from: cinyc on March 01, 2016, 06:20:35 PM
Quote from: Bigby on March 01, 2016, 06:14:41 PM
How many voters are asked these questions in the polls? I never get asked these questions after I vote.

Because you probably don't live in one of the handful of swing precincts hand chosen by Edison Research or whomever is conducting the network exit poll.  Decision Desk HQ had no idea in which precincts the network exit polls would be polling, but ended up picking some of the same precincts when they conducted their New Hampshire exit poll.

What value do exit polls even have, then?

Very good value.  They tend to pick representative bellwether precincts to poll (although I suspect they also poll some others, too).  The bellwether precincts are usually fairly good predictors of the actual result, at least in primaries.
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2016, 08:01:47 PM »
Fox News projections:
Trump wins Tennessee, Alabama and Massachusetts
Cruz has slight lead in Oklahoma
Clinton wins Tennessee and Alabama
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2016, 08:31:09 PM »
Fox News:
Arkansas is too close to call between Trump and Cruz.
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2016, 08:33:48 PM »
Fox News projects Trump wins Virginia.
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cinyc
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« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2016, 09:00:29 PM »
Fox News projects Ted Cruz wins Texas.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2016, 09:25:13 PM »
Decision Desk HQ projection: Trump wins Vermont.
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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2016, 10:04:14 PM »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on March 01, 2016, 10:00:56 PM

No clue. Just saw that. He got 10% statewide and nearly 40% in that town. Odd that its VT capital as well.

Thats a huge SD shift from his mean vote.

Where do you see that?  The New York Times map shows Kasich winning Montpelier, not Cruz.
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2016, 11:08:44 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on March 01, 2016, 11:06:30 PM
Why haven't they called Minnesota yet? he has a big lead
Because it's a caucus with no exit poll and no sense of where the vote is coming from, except broadly by CD. 

But, yes, Rubio has won Minnesota.
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cinyc
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2016, 11:10:07 PM »
Fox News projects Rubio wins Minnesota.
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cinyc
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« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2016, 11:33:20 PM »
Quote from: cowboys5xsbs on March 01, 2016, 11:30:34 PM
Any ideas what will happen in Alaska?

Trump probably wins.  I think Trump will clean up in the Mat-Su Valley (exurban Anchorage), the Republican heart of Alaska and home to Sarah Palin.  Rubio will run best in the state capital, Juneau.  Anchorage will vote more or less in line with the state.

But who knows, really?  Cruz could upset there if all the stars are aligned correctly.
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2016, 11:42:14 PM »
Quote from: Blue3 on March 01, 2016, 11:34:57 PM

 
Trump won:
1. Massachusetts
2. Virginia
3. Tennessee
4. Arkansas
5. Georgia
6. Alabama
 
Cruz won:
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
 
Rubio won:
1. Minnesota
 
Undecided as of now:
1. Vermont (Trump/Kasich)
2. Alaska (early)
 
*Colorado GOP voters don't have a primary this year... sucks to be a Colorado Republican.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Hillary won:
1. Virginia
2. Arkansas
3. Texas
4. Georgia
5. Alabama
6. Tennessee
7. Massachusetts
 
Bernie won:
1. Vermont
2. Oklahoma
3. Colorado
4. Minnesota
 
Undecided as of now:
1. American Samoa (early)
2. Democrats Abroad (early?)
 


Clinton won American Samoa, taking 4 delegates to 2.  Democrats Abroad are still voting until next week.
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cinyc
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« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2016, 11:53:27 PM »
Alaska Dispatch News has a story about the nuts and bolts of the Alaska caucus, focusing mainly on the Anchorage area.  But they note that the caucus is being held in a dentist's office in Craig, a small community in the southeast:

http://www.adn.com/article/20160301/alaska-republicans-head-polls-including-dentists-office-super-tuesday
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cinyc
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« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2016, 12:01:30 AM »
Fox News projects Trump wins Vermont.
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cinyc
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« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2016, 12:05:40 AM »
AP gives Trump the winner's checkmark in Vermont, too.
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cinyc
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« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2016, 12:46:02 AM »
KTUU-TV's story on Anchorage turnout (high), with some polling stations running out of ballots:
http://www.ktuu.com/news/news/large-voter-turnout-overwhelms-super-tuesday-polling-stations/38287112
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cinyc
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« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2016, 12:52:41 AM »
KTVA's take on Anchorage and Mat-Su turnout:
http://www.ktva.com/long-lines-ballot-shortages-on-super-tuesday-in-alaska-305/

And the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner on Fairbanks turnout (Cruz and Trump winning their informal exit poll there):
http://www.newsminer.com/news/local_news/high-turnout-in-fairbanks-for-gop-presidential-poll/article_f5b91f2a-e01c-11e5-a0b9-83d944aa0d46.html
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cinyc
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« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2016, 12:58:08 AM »
Quote from: Castro on March 02, 2016, 12:47:30 AM


"Trump winning in first returns at 34% in first results from Alaska"

Where is the photo from?  Looks like Carson won the Bethel bush House District.  I wonder where the rest of the results come from.
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2016, 01:46:53 AM »
Quote from: Solidarity Forever on March 02, 2016, 01:38:02 AM
Google has 32% of the votes in, not sure how accurate that is.

32% of the Alaska precincts doesn't equal 32% of the vote.  Especially when many of those precincts are in rural areas and the Republican heartland in the Mat-Su Valley and Kenai Peninsula are still out.
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cinyc
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« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2016, 02:21:30 AM »
Quote from: Castro on March 02, 2016, 02:17:29 AM
Midnight Sun ‏@Midnight_Sun_ak  2m2 minutes ago
If Mat-su doesn't come in huuuuuge for Trump he loses. #SuperTuesday #akvotes

Eagle River, which is arguably the Anchorage area most like Mat-Su, came in huge for Cruz - like 40-29 and 36-29 huge.  If that's a harbinger of what's to come from the Mat-Su, Cruz wins.

The other thing to look for is whether Rubio clears the 13% floor to get delegates.  As of right now, that looks likely to happen, too.
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cinyc
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« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2016, 02:24:11 AM »
Alaska GOP ‏@akgop  3m3 minutes ago
#AKVotes 10,337, incl. Ketch-Wrang
Carson 1,056 - 10.2%
Cruz 3,578 - 34.6%
Kasich 508 - 4.9%
Rubio 1,778 - 17.2%
Trump 3,417 - 33.1%
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cinyc
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« Reply #21 on: March 02, 2016, 02:26:38 AM »

Ketchikan in the Southeast came in big for Trump.  Cruz came in third there.
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cinyc
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« Reply #22 on: March 02, 2016, 02:29:11 AM »
Quote from: marty on March 02, 2016, 02:27:07 AM
Quote from: cinyc on March 02, 2016, 02:26:38 AM

Ketchikan in the Southeast came in big for Trump.

was that expected?

Yes and no.  Rubio outperformed there relative to Cruz.  I'd expect Rubio to do well in the more liberal, pork-barrel Southeast.  Ketchikan would have been the home to the original bridge to nowhere if it ever got built.  I could also see populism being popular there.

What will determine the winner is how well Trump plays in the Mat-Su.
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cinyc
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« Reply #23 on: March 02, 2016, 02:33:19 AM »

No.  None of Mat-Su is in.
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cinyc
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« Reply #24 on: March 02, 2016, 02:37:08 AM »
Quote from: Grad Students are the Worst on March 02, 2016, 02:34:46 AM
Demographically, it does seem like it should be strong for Cruz, but then again I'm the idiot who thought Rubio would do well in Juneau.

Rubio did do relatively well in Juneau.  He broke above 20% in both HDs there.  He's only at 17% statewide.  Cruz won both Juneau HDs, though.
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