Canada 2008: Official Thread

[cinyc]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

Nothing yet - but it's hard to see how a fixed elections law can stop an election when there's a minority Parliament if nothing can get done.

I'm still not 100% convinced Prime Minister Harper is going to drop the writ.  He's played rough with the Liberals before and gotten them to cave to see his agenda passed.   Stephane Dion isn't a very strong leader.

[cinyc]

As for polling, remember also that the Liberals were in power in 2004 and 2006. I would not expecte the Liberals to suddenly collapse during this campaign, although you can;t rule that out (nor could you rule out a Conservative collapse). Anyway, I think Harper will probably let the Sept 8 by-elections happen since the Liberals are likely to be humiliated in at least one, then call an election.

That's precisely why I'm not convinced the writ will be dropped.  Stephane Dion is not very smart waiting until September 9 to meet with Harper.  On September 8, the Liberals get humiliated in the by-elections.  On September 9, Dion offers Harper everything short of his adopted daughter to stop Harper from pulling the plug on Parliament.  He's caved before.  He'll cave again.

[cinyc]

From where the certainty that the September by-elections are automatically a humiliation for the Liberals?

Every recent by-election has been a humiliation for the Liberals.  What makes you think this by-election will go any differently?

[cinyc]

The last series of by-elections certainly wasn't excellent for the Liberals, but it wasn't a total humiliation. Sure they lost the northern Saskatchewan seat, but I don't recall that loss sparking a large outcry. The Liberal vote went down in half of the seats, and in the other half, their vote increased.

Let's see - their celebrity candidates won.  But they lost the northern Saskatchewan seat and almost lost Vancouver Quadra, a west-coast Liberal bastion that they held since 1984.

And in the by-election before that, the Liberals lost Outremont - a seat they've held in every Parliament but one since 1935 -  to the NDP, which hadn't won a Quebec riding for 17 years.

[cinyc]

Dion has backed down and agreed to meet with with Harper tomorrow.  Is he caving in or standing up to Harper, forcing him to pull the plug?  We ought to find out tomorrow, in any event.

[cinyc]

By all accounts, the Harper-Dion meeting didn't go well.   To his credit, Dion didn't cave.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080831/harper_dion_080901/20080901?hub=TopStories
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080831/harper_dion_080901/20080901?hub=TopStories

I guess the ball is in Harper's court.

cp-
I don't think that you can conclude that the Conservatives are "well behind in Ontario" just because national polls are tied.  The GTA offsets Alberta, to some extent.  Some 416 ridings are as anti-Tory as Alberta ridings are anti-Liberal (though the Liberals and NDP tend to split the 416 vote).   Remember - the Conservatives lost Ontario by 5 points in 2006, but still won a minority government.  They obviously need to do slightly better in Ontario to win a majority government, though.  Quebec will be the major battleground.

[cinyc]

CBC is reporting that Harper will ask the Governor General to hold the election on October 14.

[cinyc]

CBC is reporting that Harper will ask the Governor General to hold the election on October 14.

They've been reporting that for over a week

Now they're reporting that he's actually going to go over to see the GG later in the week (September 5-7), not that he just might.

I don't think that you can conclude that the Conservatives are "well behind in Ontario" just because national polls are tied.  The GTA offsets Alberta, to some extent.  Some 416 ridings are as anti-Tory as Alberta ridings are anti-Liberal (though the Liberals and NDP tend to split the 416 vote).   

Not true. Liberal support in the GTA averages in the low 50s with very few ridings showing more than 60% support for the Liberals. The Tories, by contrast, pull in 60-70% support in most of Alberta's ridings and a good deal more in SK and BC. Whether or not the NDP and Liberals split the anti-Tory vote, the Tories still get artificially inflated in national numbers because of their disproportionately high support in the west.

On another note, a strategic counsel poll just came out. It's not good news

CPC: 37
Libs: 28
NDP: 17
Bloc: 8
Green: 7

On the bright side, SC usually over samples the Conservatives and NDP and in every election campaign the incumbent party loses support. Want more troubleshooting? It shows the Libs at 26% in Quebec to the Conservatives 23%.

Not good news for the Liberals, if accurate.  But it contradicts recent Nanos (SES) and Decima polls.

The M.O.E. for the regional subsamples are usually pretty high.  For Quebec, the national polls usually have an M.O.E. of 6-7 points.  These results are more or less a tie.  The Liberals are up about 5 from 2006 and the Conservatives down about 1.5. 

The Bloc must be significantly down in Quebec.  They polled 10.5% nationwide in 2006 (42% in Quebec).  That would fit the trend in other recent polls, which have the Bloc in the 30s.  A significant Bloc loss in Quebec could put the Tories on Liberals on track to win a majority of seats. 

[cinyc]

Liberal Targets
If all these seats turn red, the Liberals become the largest party
1   Parry Sound--Muskoka
2   Winnipeg South/Winnipeg-Sud
3   Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
4   St. Catharines
5   Hamilton East--Stoney Creek/Hamilton-Est--Stoney Creek
6   Tobique--Mactaquac
7   Ahuntsic
8   London--Fanshawe
9   Fleetwood--Port Kells
10   Ottawa--Orléans
11   Simcoe North/Simcoe-Nord
12   Brossard--La Prairie
13   Papineau

If all these seats turn red, Dion becomes Prime Minister with an overall majority
14   Burnaby--Douglas
15   Barrie
16   Kitchener--Conestoga
17   Halton
18   Peterborough
19   Burlington
20   Parkdale--High Park
21   Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale
22   Sault Ste. Marie
23   Whitby--Oshawa
24   Northumberland--Quinte West
25   Hamilton Mountain
26   Niagara Falls
27   Trinity--Spadina
28   Jeanne-Le Ber
29   Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre
30   Essex
31   Western Arctic
32   Ottawa Centre/Ottawa-Centre
33   Sarnia--Lambton
34   Gatineau
35   South Shore--St. Margaret's
36   Burnaby--New Westminster
37   Ottawa West--Nepean/Ottawa-Ouest--Nepean
38   Chicoutimi--Le Fjord
39   Pontiac
40   Kildonan--St. Paul
41   Cambridge
42   Brome--Missisquoi
43   Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia
44   Victoria
45   Saanich--Gulf Islands
46   Chatham-Kent--Essex
47   St. John's East/St. John's-Est
48   St. John's South--Mount Pearl/St. John's-Sud--Mount Pearl
49   Avalon
50   Haldimand--Norfolk
51   Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo
52   Port Moody--Westwood--Port Coquitlam

Isn't Desnethé - Missinippi - Churchill River a more likely Liberal (re)pickup than Port Moody-Westwood or Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, etc?  The Conservative only recently won in a by-election.  Turnout is usually higher in the general election.

[cinyc]

So, an election is called and a really quite disastrous poll for the Liberals comes out.

EKOS
Con: 37
Lib: 24
NDP: 19
Green: 10
BQ: 6

Of course, there are some weird regional breakdowns in there, and I doubt Harper is that far ahead. The breakdown in Quebec is of particular interest:

BQ: 26
Con: 25
NDP: 21
Lib: 18
Green: 7

The Bloc is definitely weaker in Quebec than 2006 (42%) - every poll has shown this.  Usually, they've been polling in the 30s, not 26 though.   Again, I'd note that the regional subsample polls usually have high MOEs - for Quebec, usually around 7 points.

This is the second recent poll showing the CPC with a large lead.  (Strategic Counsel was the other).   If this poll reflects reality on October 14, the Tories would win a majority.  Of course, there's over a month to go, which is an eternity in politics.

[cinyc]

I agree; there was a lot of weirdness in the poll. The NDP led in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada (!), the Liberals barely managed third ahead of the Greens in BC, the Greens were ahead of the NDP in Ontario, where the Conservatives narrowly led the Liberals. But it was amusing.

The only obvious result was 66% for the Conservatives in Alberta (Lib 17, NDP and Greens 8 each). But there's only one competitive seat in Alberta anyway, Edmonton-Strathcona.

I expect the Liberals to take a little bit of hit in BC due to the "green shift" tax plan, especially in the more rural ridings.  BCers already have been hit with a carbon tax and aren't liking it much.

The Bloc receiving votes in the Prairies?  A confused Winnipeg Francophone, perhaps?  And the Dippers in the lead there?  Again, the Liberals may take a hit in the non-urban parts of the Prairies (likely to go Torie, anyway) due to the green shift, but would the Dippers really be the ones to take advantage of that?

[cinyc]

You're totally misreading the green shift plan and applying US standards to it. Which is somewhat amusing, but anyway. the sort of people who might care are already voting NDP and probably have since the Alliance merged with the PCs. They're the Conservative-NDP swing voters.

I'm not misreading the green shift plan or applying U.S. standards to it.  Dion claims it will be revenue neutral and not make taxpayers worse off, but 1) Dion's a terrible salesman (largely in part because he doesn't speak English well - what's a carpool?) and 2) that's not the reality for farmers and rural residents unless the plan has been significantly revised.  Promises of revisions to the plan is not the same thing as actually doing it.

The "rural ridings" in the west are, where they're not Conservative strongholds, NDP-Conservative battlegrounds. BC Southern Interior, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo (and the other Kamloops seats to a lesser extent), a lot of Saskatchewan seats, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, etc.

The NDP leading in the Prairies is not totally unrealistic, not if the Liberals are doing poorly in Winnipeg. In poor economic conditions as at present, I could, at least in theory, see those provinces switching heavily from the Conservatives to the NDP. The Prairies tend to bypass the Liberals.

But I have seen little evidence that the NDP stands much chance at winning any of their targets in Saskatchewan except maybe Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. The only rural areas where the Liberals win any votes at all are places with large First Nations populations (Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, for example). The NDP has traditional strength in Saskatchewan particularly, which for a long time was the party's base. (2004 was the first election the NDP failed to win a seat there.)

B.C. races tend to be more three-way than anything else.  In most B.C. ridings held by Conservatives - including the rural ones - the Liberals and Dippers often were within 5 points of each other, even in defeat.

My point isn't that the Liberals will lose ridings in the Prairies (they don't have many anyway) but votes as a result of the green shift.  Lost votes in rural areas - whether they go to the Dippers, Tories or Greens, would be reflected in the overall polls. 

I doubt the NDP is ahead in the Prairies.  Even if the NDP received every Saskachewan Liberal vote from 2006, they'd still be behind the Tories unless they lost support in the Province (and why would they?  Although provincial results don't necessarily translate into federal results, the provincial NDP lost last provincial election).  And if that happened, they'd still have to take 80% of the 2006 Liberal vote in Manitoba to draw even in the Prairies.

The MOE in the Prairie, Alberta and Atlantic Canada subsamples are extremely high - often close to double digits.  Those subsamples should always be taken with a huge grain of salt.

Something interesting: Jack Harris seems very likely to stand for the NDP in St. John's East, which he won spectacularly in a by-election back in 1987. It's hard to see the Conservatives holding on anywhere in Newfoundland given the particular conditions working against them, and the talk is that the NDP may sweep the two St. John's seats on the back of Harris. Avalon will be a Conservative-Liberal battle, but that will probably fall to the Liberals, too.

What other than Premier Danny Williams is working against the Tories in Newfoundland? The Tories won their 3 NL ridings by over 10 points in 2006, and came within 5 points of beating the Liberals  in Random-Burin-St. George's.
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In the interest of full disclosure, unlike everyone else who has posted to this thread, I'm much more sympathetic to the Tories than Liberals, Dippers or Greens.

[cinyc]

Environics/CBC (9/2):

Canada:
Conservatives 38%
Liberals 28%
NDP 19%
Bloc Québécois 8%
Greens 7%

Regional results:
Atlantic Canada:
Liberals 39%
Conservatives 33%
NDP 23%
Greens 5%
 
Quebec:
Bloc 34%
Conservatives 23%
Liberals 22%
NDP 16%
Greens 6%

Ontario:
Conservatives  43%
Liberals 34%
NDP 16%
Greens 7%

Prairies (incl. Alberta):
Conservatives 53%
Liberals 22%
NDP 19%
Greens 6%

B.C.:
Conservatives 35%
NDP 28%
Liberals 26%
Greens 10%

[cinyc]

Strategic Vision is going to conduct daily polling of 45 swing ridings for CTV and The Globe and Mail: 20 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec and 10 in B.C.  They are calling them "Battleground 2008 Ridings".  The polls are aggregates of the ridings in those provinces, not riding-by-riding polls.

Here are the initial poll results (with the 2006 results for comparison in parentheses):

Ontario 20:
Conservative  41% (37%)
Liberal            29% (39%)
Green             17% (5%)
NDP                13% (19%)

Quebec 15:
Conservative  32% (23%)
Bloc                 28% (37%)
Liberal            24% (28%)
NDP                11% (8%)
Green               5% (4%)

B.C. 10:
Conservative   45% (35%)
Liberal             25% (33%)
NDP                 17% (27%)
Green              13% (5%)

All polls were taken September 4-6.  The MOE is supposed to be around +/-4.5% for every sample ongoing.

Here's a list of the "Battleground 2008" ridings (which basically were the ridings with the closest margins in 2006):

Ontario 20:
Parry Sound-Muskoka, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, St. Catharines, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Brant, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Oakville, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshaw, Ottawa-Orléans, Simcoe North, London West, Barrie, Kitchener-Conestoga, Halton, Peterborough, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Burlington, Mississauga South.

Quebec 15:
Louis-Hébert, Ahuntsic, Beauport-Limoilou, Brossard-La Prairie, Papineau, Charlesbourg--Haut-Saint-Charles, Hull-Aylmer, Honoré-Mercier, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, Pontiac, Jeanne-Le Ber, Laval-Les Îles, Gatineau, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Brome-Missisquoi.

British Columbia 10:
Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Island North, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Newton-North Delta, Burnaby-Douglas, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Richmond, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, North Vancouver.

[cinyc]

Ontario 20:
Conservative  41% (37%)
Liberal            29% (39%)
Green             17% (5%)
NDP                13% (19%)

Am I the only one here who has a hard time seeing the Conservatives up that much in Ontario?

An another note, I'd prefer riding-by-riding polls than one poll for twenty ridings (not all of which are Lib-Con swing ridings, o/c). But riding polls remain riding polls...

Well, it's not an Ontario-wide poll, and the Tories really aren't up all that much - 4 points.  It's the Liberals (-10) and NDP (-6) who (supposedly) are down significantly from 2006, with the Greens up 12.

I wouldn't put too much stock into the Battleground 2008 polls, either.  Averages mask variation in data, and who knows where they polled when.  But more data is better than no data.

[cinyc]

Actually, no. Bad data is worse, far worse, than no data.

Even bad data is usually good for watching trends, as long as the polling method is consistent.  

The polling methodology here may not be if they don't poll a set number from each of the ridings, though.  Poll more in a Liberal-NDP battleground, and their numbers temporarily go up while the Conservatives fall.  Poll more in a Torie-Liberal battleground, and the NDP falls.  Seems more open to manipulation than your typical nationwide or provincewide poll.

[cinyc]

Another new poll, this one from "Segma" (never heard of them):

Con: 43
Lib: 25
NDP: 15
BQ: 8
Green: 7

Must be a Quebec polling firm because the poll release is all in French. They do agree with EKOS that the NDP's best region is the Maritimes, although they have the NDP third there.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/assets/pdf/CP204198.PDF


Obama leads by a wide margin in all states provinces

Segma UniMarketing is definitely a Quebec polling firm.  I don't remember them doing polls in 2006.  Nodice has April and January 2008 Segma UniMarketing polls in their database.

[cinyc]

hey now, don't dis Ekos! As I mentioned, the poll numbers our from our "EKOS panel", which is mostly online, and we all know how bad online polls are.

Historically, EKOS hasn't been a very bad pollster, so that's something to keep in mind. SES is the best (now called NANOS research or something like that)

According to a big banner on CPAC's website, Nanos (nee SES Research) starts releasing its poll numbers on Thursday at 2PM Eastern.  It sounds like it's going to be a daily poll (which is what I remember happening at least in the last two weeks of the 2006 race).

[cinyc]

Which two ridings do they have a deal [qm]

Central Nova and Saint-Laurent-Cartierville. In the former, no Liberal candidate is opposing May. In Dion's riding, there's no Greenie.

I also read somewhere that the Tories aren't running a candidate against Independent Andre Arthur in Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier.  They don't want to risk splitting the federalist vote, or so the story goes.

[cinyc]

Harper and Layton have caved to public pressure and said that they will not, after all, boycott any debate where May is allowed to debate. (Duceppe had said that he opposed her being admitted but would not boycott such a debate.) So May will be in the leaders' debate after all. She will be one of the more interesting stories there mostly because very few Canadians have an opinion of her while opinions on the other four are all quite solidly established.

Interestingly, a recent poll (forget by whom) had Duceppe as by far the most popular of the party leaders at around 60% favorable. Layton was next at around 55% favorable, then Harper around 45% favorable, and Dion at about 30% favorable. May also had about 30% favorable, but a full 50% had no opinion of her.

I wonder if she'll call Canadians stupid on national television, like she did on the radio.

[cinyc]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's not all that strange, if you think about it.  There will be no new American programming for CTV and Global to simulcast that night anyway.  So why not replace what would otherwise be repeats or ad hoc Canadian programming with the ultimate in Canadian programming?  The  Presidential debates are too early in the Canadian election cycle or a bit too late.

[cinyc]

Angus-Reid has officially earned 'joke pollster' status. Harris-Decima, meet Zogby.

Their BC numbers
Con 36
Green 26
NDP 24
Liberal 13

More sh**t here: http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.09.13_ARPW.pdf

1) It's an online poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

2) The MOE for a B.C. subsample is usually 6-8 points, depending on the pollster.  If it's 7 points, the Liberals can be at 21% while the Greens are at 20% within the margin of error.

3) I said it before and I'll say it again, even though I've been accused of not understanding Canadian politics when I originally said it:  The Green Shift will hurt Stephane Dion and the Liberals in B.C., which already has an unpopular carbon tax.  Even if you think Canadians want to be taxed more "for the planet", Dion is a terrible salesman who doesn't speak English well.   The Liberals will have a hard time selling this as revenue neutral, especially when it isn't to everyone in its current formulation.

[cinyc]

Mustel Group British Columbia Poll
Conservatives 39% (+2 from 2006 election)
NDP 25% (-4)
Liberals 24% (-4)
Greens 12% (+7)

September 2-8; MOE +/-3.6% (n=750)
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Finally, a B.C. province-wide poll with a reasonable MOE.

[cinyc]

can someone explain to me what impact, if any, danny williams and his 'abc' campaign will have on the election.

from what i read, this fellow sounds like a blowhard.

The Tories only have 3 ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador.  One current cabinet minister isn't seeking re-election.  The Election Projection Project thinks the Conservatives will lose that consitutency to the Liberals.  And they may lose one or both of the others as well.   Plus, Danny Williams' campaign will probably hurt the Conservatives' chances in another riding that was very close in 2006.

But again, it's only up to 3 ridings - the Conservatives would have to make them up somewhere if lost.  It's not as if the popular Conservative Premier of Ontario (yes, that's a non-existent oxymoron) launched an ABC campaign.

It's not entirely clear whether the ABC campaign is working.  According to a recent NTV poll, 27% of Newfounfland and Labrador voters weren't aware of the ABC campaign, only 26% of those who are aware and have made up their mind about who to vote for said the ABC campaign was a factor, and 31% of those who haven't made up their mind said it could have an effect.  It's not clear what percentage of those voters voted for the Federal Tories in 2006.

Those numbers seem low - but they could swing the elections in Avalon and St. John's East IF the ABC voters all vote for the same candidate. 

Note that NTV said Telelink (who conducted the poll) had a more difficult time than usual finding willing participants - perhaps because of the alleged intimidation tactics reportedly used by Premier Williams.

NTV/Telelink Newfoundland and Labrador Poll
Liberals 19.1%
Conservative 14.3%
NDP 8.8%
Green 0.7%
Other 2.1%
UNDECIDED 55%
MOE +/-3.3; Dates unknown (on or before September 10)

[cinyc]

Update on the battleground thingees: http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2008/polltracker.html

Liberals now tied with Forces of Darkness in ON, Bloc is in the lead for Quebec, and Tories still lead BC.

I don't know if this flipped in the past few hours, but the Forces of Darkness Light are now slightly ahead in Quebec.  The Bloc seems to be dropping like a rock in many polls.