German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[WMS]

I saw your new reply, Lewis, but this post is long enough already.

There never was one. We had Kohl for 8 years past reunification, remember. He had a plan to bring up the quality of East German housing by subsidies to West German rich investing their money in that (and hey - it worked) , but nothing beyond that really.

Well, then what about the surely-brilliant schemes of the SDP - they've had a shot to do that too.

Red-Red-Green (somebody asked what the Left's colour is, btw. in diagrams it's sort of a reddish violet. In expressions like this, they're red too.)  

That was me - trying to figure out all the color schemes of other countries.

The best chance for a Grand Coalition now is a coordinated double coup in CDU and SPD that forces both Schröder and Merkel to retire. (I loved the Financial Times Deutschland headline yesterday. "Both Losers Want to Be Chancellor.")

I could live with that, if it's a CDU/CSU Chancellor. See the bit with Old Europe below...

You might yet. But you may win yet, too...

OK, maybe I can lose. But the preferred options out there still have me winning.

So, here's my take on what scenarios are possible.

3) Both Merkel and Schröder step aside and CDU/CSU and SPD compromise on the Chancellor question... one of the CDU minister-presidents (state PM's) would most likely end up being Chancellor.

As I said, I could live with that.

7) Schröder is somehow elected Chancellor and forms a SPD/Green minority government, perhaps supported by the Left Party.

BOO! BOOO! BOOOO! BOOOOO! No Left Party! No Left Party! No Left Party!

[WMS]

Fourth,
I have four more possible options.
I'll start with the most absurd one and end with the one that I have the most absurd things to say about.

-The senile old wanker respected German author Martin Walser has proposed an all-party (except Left) coalition of the ablest heads. Merkel could be chancellor. Schröder could be vice chancellor and foreign minister.

Oh my God. Please no.

No? No.

Funny, I click on that message and I don't recall writing that. I take it it's an accurate reflection of my sentiments, huh Lewis?

-The SPD could just let Merkel and Westerwelle try to govern alone, perhaps even help elect Merkel chancellor but stay outside the cabinet. They could then bring the government down at whatever moment they find to be the most convenient for new elections.

That would kinda be dumb for the CDU, wouldn't it?

-This is the option I personally favor upon sane reflection, the one this election result really calls for.
It is not going to happen though: not because Germany is not ready for it, but because the German political caste - journalists; leadership circles of all the parties - are not ready for it.
It's an SPD minority government. After all, the SPD holds the balance of power in the Bundestag. They'd have to find outside support for every bill they want to pass - either the CDU or two out of four of CSU, FDP, Greens, and Left. This would actually be likely to improve the quality of legislation passed , not to mention restore Parliament to its old central role from which it has been sidelined by the minstries.

Hmm...actually, I see this shifting all legislation hard-left as the SPD continually relies on Green and Left votes to pass everything.

Unless I'm missing something here...

-This one begun life as a rhetorical line I was thinking of. That line was supposed to be "Black Traffic Light? Why not Red Green White & Blue? They make about equal sense."
However, the more I thought about it, the more I like it. SPD-Greens-CSU. Perfect. Ähdmund Stoiber gets to be finance minister.
Notice that something like it has already been practiced during the outgoing parliament, in the Föderalismuskommission jointly chaired by Stoiber and Müntefering. That its eminently sensible if not quite farreaching enough proposals for a reform of the German Constitution were then promptly shot down by the CDU state bosses was a personal defeat for Stoiber, and helped pave the way for Merkel's candidacy.
Of course, the joint Fraktion (parliamentary party is the English equivalent, a confusing and muddled term.) with the CDU would have to come to an end, but the CSU had already decided on that once before, in 1981. Back then, Helmut Kohl threatened to expand the CDU into Bavaria, and Franz Josef Strauß desisted and the CSU ate its vote. But today, the CDU is in a much weaker position to threaten a march on Bavaria, ie the CSU has much less to lose. Unless Strauß and Kohl in 81, Stoiber is far more popular in Bavaria than Merkel, after all.

But I thought the CSU and Greens can't stand each other, especially over social issues?

Worse, the CSU might expand into the remainder of the country, rather like the Left is operating nationally from its Eastern base. It could position itself, against Merkel's more libertarian course, as a socially conservative, economically centrist alternative. Heck, if everything goes right the CDU might disappear as the more populist elements join the CSU, the more libertarian elements the FDP. (And the two ex-wings would probably be united in bitter emnity against each other.)

You have my attention.

Now you could ask yourself - isn't the SPD under the same theoretical threat from Greens and Left? And isn't the fact that it's showing no signs of happening proof that this scenario isn't plausible either? But I would argue that the situation is different, simply because Greens and Left are not coming from opposite poles within the SPD spectrum.
If you imagine a political compass reweighted to represent only the SPD, the Greens could theoretically take everything on the socially libertarian half; and the Left could theoretically take everything on the economically left-wing half. In other words, the party's Left wing (Nahles, Stiegler, Thierse) might theoretically be attracted to either, the party's Right wing (Steinbrück, Clement, Schily despite his Green past) couldn't possibly find a home in either.

Sorry if I'm missing this, but this means what now? Would the SPD's right wing be inclined toward the new and improved CSU you outlined above?

Back in an hour or so - off on my late morning walk...

[WMS]

Funny, I click on that message and I don't recall writing that. I take it it's an accurate reflection of my sentiments, huh Lewis?

Yep.

Yeah, that type of broad coalition seems like it would end with someone getting shoved down a flight of stairs.

Hmm...actually, I see this shifting all legislation hard-left as the SPD continually relies on Green and Left votes to pass everything.

Unless I'm missing something here...

You're missing a) the rivalry of Schröder and Lafontaine b) the fact that some of the reform laws of Schröder's first term were pretty badly drafted and had results not quite as intended, and that's what I was stabbing at really.
Anyways, what you say may well happen in this scenario...after a while.

Ah, a) I had forgotten about and b) I didn't know about in the first place.
And I can't but see the Left Party exacting an ideological toll on the SPD and Greens in return for outside support...

But I thought the CSU and Greens can't stand each other, especially over social issues?

Sure. We can't stand the FDP either, and they can't stand us, though. Anyways a Jamaican would include CSU and Greens too.

See my 'someone gets shoved down a flight of stairs' comment above.

[WMS]

Yeah, together with the Vice Chancellery, Müntefering will also take over the office of the Minister of Labor. And with Frank-Walter Steinmeier we will have a foreign minister nobody ever heard of... neither abroad nor at home.

Only three members of the old Schröder cabinet, Brigitte Zypries (Justice), Ulla Schmidt (Health), and Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul ("Economic Cooperation and Development", in other words: foreign aid) will keep their posts. The rest are new faces. Of those three, Wieczorek-Zeul will be the only minister left from the original Schröder cabinet (which took office in 1998).

Go Red Heidi! Both she and Zypries are South Hessians after all.
Steinmeier has been a close Schröder aide all these years. I'll admit his nomination as Foreign Minister is a bit surprising to me. It will also be a bit disappointing to WMS et al.

A continued policy of kissing Russia's ass and confronting the U.S., I see.

On the positive side, this will made Poland (and pretty much the rest of Central Europe) even more pro-U.S. I love divide and conquer policies - they work so well for the U.S. in foreign policy.

[WMS]

Meet Germany's next foreign minister

Merkel's cabinet is also graced with yet another close ally of outgoing chancellor Schröder. Franz-Walter Steinmeier, 49, is set to be Germany's next foreign minister. Formerly Schröder's chief of staff, Steinmeier's posting is considered to be the largest surprise in Merkel's cabinet. And he is largely seen as someone who would like to carry on the foreign policy of the previous administration -- namely, distance to the United States and close relations with Russia. These are, however, both areas in which Merkel has said she wants to reposition Germany. Although Steinmeier is not known for his brilliant English ability, he has experience on the international stage. He participated in diplomatic negotiations with both Moscow and Israel as well as settling on compensation payments with Libya for victims of the 1986 terrorist bombing of the LaBelle disco in Berlin.

*boos heartily*
That's my biggest disappointment with all this - the retention of a leftist anti-American hack in charge of German foreign policy.

[WMS]

German politics is reminding me more and more of a country not a million mouseclicks away from this board.

Atlasia, by chance?

[WMS]

German politics is reminding me more and more of a country not a million mouseclicks away from this board.

Atlasia, by chance?

Yep, that's the one I meant.

Now that's a bit spooky...

And East Germany is still officially insane.