Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Zarn]

If Obama takes CO (9)...

A) Given NV (5)... NH+NM (9) or IA (7)
Longshot... OR (7)

B) Without NV... NM+IA (12), NH+IA (11), PA (21), MI (17), or WI (10)
Longshots... NJ (15), MN (10), NM+OR (12)

I cannot see WA (11) flipping, but if I see a close poll come late this month or October, I'd consider myself corrected.

I probably messed up somewhere, because I was not using a map.

[Zarn]

If Obama takes CO (9)...

A) Given NV (5)... NH+NM (9) or IA (7)
Longshot... OR (7)

B) Without NV... NM+IA (12), NH+IA (11), PA (21), MI (17), or WI (10)
Longshots... NJ (15), MN (10), NM+OR (12)

I cannot see WA (11) flipping, but if I see a close poll come late this month or October, I'd consider myself corrected.

I probably messed up somewhere, because I was not using a map.

Don't know what you're on about...

I would suggest looking at 538 and then looking back at this.

[Zarn]

...And it is all 6's.

Battlground is usally decent. Just because it doesn't favor your candidate, it doesn't mean it is inaccurate.

[Zarn]

I don't see why Obama fans see this as a problem. He still has a 4-6 point lead.

[Zarn]

I'm a libertarian... just registered Republican.

[Zarn]

And Gallup falls from grace.

[Zarn]

Gallup sometimes has little spasms, before it starts to settle down or goes in a completely different direction.

In other words, they go up and down faster than the stock market.

[Zarn]

From what I can tell it is the McCain supporters who are talking about an unpolled group, or the racists within their hoped for Bradley effect. The 'new voters' and 'young voters' seem to be showing up now in Gallups 'expanded' likely voter model.

I would be very careful about any assumptions of any kind.

[Zarn]

Is there someone keeping track of the days who can tell whether this was likely to be a bad sample or if it has any significance?

Swedes live in the future... you tell us!

/Lametimezonejoke

Even a day that looks like an outlier may not be one. I'm not saying it isn't, though.

[Zarn]

It's not good for McCain, since now resgistered is even worse.

[Zarn]

If you haven't noticed, I'm usually not pessimistic.

I now LVs are usually more important, but we don't know who the LVs are.

[Zarn]

If you haven't noticed, I'm usually not pessimistic.

I now LVs are usually more important, but we don't know who the LVs are.

Which is why Gallup covers both bases. The expanded is the super high unprecedented turnout of blacks, youth etc. The traditional is the normal voters. Having both of those within 4 points is very good news.

I know, but they aren't doing a very good job, if even the expanded is far more pro-McCain.

[Zarn]

This is starting to get too close for comfort again, at least in the national tracking polls. It's nice to know that a lot of people have voted already at least though.

Right, we don't need them changing their minds and voting McCain.

[Zarn]

This is starting to get too close for comfort again, at least in the national tracking polls. It's nice to know that a lot of people have voted already at least though.

Right, we don't need them changing their minds and voting McCain.

Keep looking for a trend.

Huh? I don't get what you mean.

[Zarn]

Problem is once he's elected and he destroys the economy and allows Russia to run over Eastern Europe (it would be the perfect time to do it), people will be still praising him.

[Zarn]

Gallup is sometimes slow to catch on, but who knows.

[Zarn]

So Obamas Gallup numbers are going up and up, and almost everywhere else they're going down. What to make of this?

Like I just said, I have noticed that Gallup sometimes seems to lag behind a little.

I could be wrong, though. Gallup could even be right.

[Zarn]

Looking at the fact that McCain can pass away any time because of his old age, seriously can we afford Sarah Palin as our President after 8 years of Bush presidency ?

That would be terrible.  We'd have someone with limited experience in national office, isular, with no executive experience ... oh, wait.

It's who a President surrounds himself while in office with that makes him bad, good or great. While it is likely that both Obama and McCain would reach across the gap and appoint from the other party, I have yet to be given any assurrance that Palin would.

Why? She has worked with Dems before. She alligns herself with Repubs and Dems who are willing to put corrupt politicans in jail.

[Zarn]

Gallup falls from grace (even if Obama wins by 8% or less).